Scott Bell
EF1
While I agree that a cycle of actual tornado formation would be difficult to determine, perhaps a cycle of favorable conditions would be more easily detected?
Since tornado formation is still not completely understood, and is based on multiple complex variables, we can't really map out the 'normal distribution' like we can with say daily temperatures. However, we do have the ability to say that with a certain weather pattern tornado genesis is much more likely to occur and we can perhaps map out a cycle for each of the major variables. Say for example the gulf flow is favorable on a 5 year cycle while the upper level patterns are on a 15 year cycle. Taking these favorable conditions and overlaying them in time might show a rather messy trend, but one that has some structure to it and that might allow some correlation to the apparent 'randomness' of tornado recordings?
Since tornado formation is still not completely understood, and is based on multiple complex variables, we can't really map out the 'normal distribution' like we can with say daily temperatures. However, we do have the ability to say that with a certain weather pattern tornado genesis is much more likely to occur and we can perhaps map out a cycle for each of the major variables. Say for example the gulf flow is favorable on a 5 year cycle while the upper level patterns are on a 15 year cycle. Taking these favorable conditions and overlaying them in time might show a rather messy trend, but one that has some structure to it and that might allow some correlation to the apparent 'randomness' of tornado recordings?
