Invest 95

[evan anderson]

Been watching this area when the NHC had it at 0% -- yet disturbance activity persisted and latest as of 2p Sunday is 50%. So recognizing differences to Oct 2005 (Wilma), and lack of much activity, have also noted the "Special Features" language in the latest NHC update:

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...SE GULF OF MEXICO...AND SRN MEXICO CONCENTRATED AROUND A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER BELIZE NEAR 19N88W. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIES UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND THE WRN SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 82W-84W...AND FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 78W-89W INCLUDING WRN CUBA...BELIZE...AND THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS THE LOW DRIFTS NW. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...NW CARIBBEAN...AND SE GULF. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS UP TO GALE FORCE ARE ALREADY OCCURRING S OF 25N BETWEEN 85W-90W.

 

[evan anderson]

As 95L is/was in warmer water temps movement N/NE into cooler SST's seems less likely that a "Rina" is in the making.

Nonetheless sitting/soaking along the west coast of FL...

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 335 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND WINDS OF GALE FORCE...BUT NO EVIDENCE OF A CENTER OF CIRCULATION NEAR THE MAIN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

 

[cdcollura]

Two words: WIND SHEAR

 

[evan anderson]

and Supercells...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0867.html

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Invest 95 has come and gone, but did manage to give S Florida a rare EF-2 tornado (see link below for that)...

http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?28360-2011-10-18-REPORTS-FL

The image below shows the unique characteristics of this disturbance as it was evolving from a subtropical system to an extratropical wave cyclone. Interesting is the actual low-level vorticity leaving the highly-sheared mid and upper low, appearing as a small, tight mesolow exposed just north of the Yucatan penninsula.