Invest 94L

[Stuart Robinson]

Old rule of tropcal thumb,

Once in the Bay of Campeche always in the the Bay of Campeche .....

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Old rule of tropcal thumb,

Once in the Bay of Campeche always in the the Bay of Campeche .....

That rule would be incorrect, however. Just off the top of my head, I can think of two 'canes that originated in the Bay of Campeche and hit the USA: Audrey 1957 and Bret 1999.

And, even if a 'cane stayed down there, it could still be a good chase prospect.

But, anyway, I don't expect anything out of this piece of crap. I'm talking about BoC cyclones in general.

 

[Jim Leonard]

The big problem we have is in the longrange, the 500mb high is progged to retrograde westward from the western atlantic to the GOM next week. That would keep any tropical prospect down in central America moving westward.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

The big problem we have is in the longrange, the 500mb high is progged to retrograde westward from the western atlantic to the GOM next week. That would keep any tropical prospect down in central America moving westward.

Hmmm. Bummer.

And it's looking just a tad more interesting this evening: the NHC analyzes a 1005-mb low near ~17N 86W, which is just N of the island of Roatan (Honduras). Latest infrared imagery shows a small but intense burst of convection near or over the low center.