Invest 94L

[Josh Morgerman]

OK, guys, check this out. Sorry to spam the board with Invest threads, but this one looks interesting.

This feature is in the NW Caribbean. The low center is near ~17N 83W and the NHC-- in the 2:05 pm EDT TWD-- says they expect it to continue deepening. In my opinion, this is the most interesting tropical feature we've seen in a week, because strong convection is occurring near or at the low center, for a change.

Early models tug it N, in the general direction of the Gulf. The SHIPS makes it an 80-kt 'cane in three days, before a Yucatan landfall. I'm taking the model outputs with a grain of salt at this point, but they're encouraging.

All of this aside... October is peak season for the NW Caribbean. Many tremendous cyclones have developed in this exact region in the last twenty years, so it's climatologically normal for something sweet to spin up here.

This one has potential. Cool.

 

[Jim Leonard]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica] Something to keep in mind for the next several days is we may have something interesting just to our south. As we head into the second week of October formation in the western Caribbean increases greatly. This is the region where south Florida gets most of its hurricane landfalls. 94L doesn't look like much yet on satellite imagery but these type of systems usually take many days to organize. The models show the ridge in the eastern U.S. breaking down during the next several days and being replaced by a broad trough. Depending where the axis of the trough sets up will mean greatly on where this possible storm will track. If the trough sets up just east of 80W chances are the storm will go west. If the trough sets up west toward 85W chances are the storm will go north then northeast across south Florida or the western Bahamas.[/FONT]

 

[Josh Morgerman]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica] Something to keep in mind for the next several days is we may have something interesting just to our south. As we head into the second week of October formation in the western Caribbean increases greatly. This is the region where south Florida gets most of its hurricane landfalls. 94L doesn't look like much yet on satellite imagery but these type of systems usually take many days to organize. The models show the ridge in the eastern U.S. breaking down during the next several days and being replaced by a broad trough. Depending where the axis of the trough sets up will mean greatly on where this possible storm will track. If the trough sets up just east of 80W chances are the storm will go west. If the trough sets up west toward 85W chances are the storm will go north then northeast across south Florida or the western Bahamas.[/FONT]

You ain't kidding! I have to confess I'm getting a bit impatient with this one! Pressures are very low in the NW Caribbean, there's plenty of moisture, the upper-air pattern is pretty hospitable, and yet... nothing. Yet.

 

[cdcollura]

Hey guys - don't expect much.

A 30 knot (or more) OPPOSING wind flow between 850 and 500 MB is all the most exciting over the Atlantic this year...

No pun intended, but I am going with "the program" of 2007 by now.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

I refuse to give up! The NW Caribbean is prime location in October and oceanic heat content is high. It might not be this particular disturbance, but I remain hopeful something good will brew down there within the next few weeks. Maybe I'm deluded-- I don't know.

 

[Jim Leonard]

If the global models are to be believed I don't see any good prospects for anything but a westward track to 94L or any storm that does develop during the next week or so in the NW Caribbean. The main trough in during the next week appears to be setting up just off the east coast of the U.S. which won't allow a system to track with any northward component. Once we get into late October the chances for a U.S. landfall decrease rapidly. It looks like hurricane Dean was the only chaseable 'Cane of 2007 in this hemisphere.

 

[Tampa Dave]

Hey Josh,

Here in Tampa, we have had a large pocket of dry air which has kept our sea breeze convection at bay. It is unusual for tropical systems to form in the Gulf during this time. Outside of a few yrs ago, October is fairly quiet. But I would welcome some action! Thanks for your post.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

If the global models are to be believed I don't see any good prospects for anything but a westward track to 94L or any storm that does develop during the next week or so in the NW Caribbean. The main trough in during the next week appears to be setting up just off the east coast of the U.S. which won't allow a system to track with any northward component. Once we get into late October the chances for a U.S. landfall decrease rapidly. It looks like hurricane Dean was the only chaseable 'Cane of 2007 in this hemisphere.

Jim, we can't give up yet!

Hey Josh,

Here in Tampa, we have had a large pocket of dry air which has kept our sea breeze convection at bay. It is unusual for tropical systems to form in the Gulf during this time. Outside of a few yrs ago, October is fairly quiet. But I would welcome some action! Thanks for your post.

Thanks, Dave-- you're welcome.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

What Dr. Masters (on Weather Underground) describes as a "vigorous surface circulation" has spun up over the NW Caribbean this afternoon, and he expects it to be a TD by tomorrow.

If you look at a visible loop, the circulation is enormous-- covers the W half of the Caribbean. The only problem is that the low center will probably move onto the Yucatan by Thursday, before it can really intensify. However, Dr. Masters points out that the circulation's enormity might actually ensure some longevity-- so that if/when it emerges back over water (Gulf or NW Caribbean), it could regenerate.

If the darn thing would only move a little more N!

 

[cdcollura]

TWC mentions: What does this front in the central USA and "circulation near Belize" have in common?

They forecast for the weekend lots of moisturte to "stream" across FL.

Shear across?

 

[Doug_Kiesling]

Hey Josh,

Ever try a frozen hurricane? Or at least a frozen tropical storm? This is what is happening 3 hours north of me. I wish I could go play in the wind but I have to work on a video project for a client that they need edited by noon.

Current Conditions: Duluth, Duluth International Airport Time:3:55 AM CDT (08:55 UTC)
Windchill: 34.5 F Pressure: 29.71 in Hg Visibility: 7 Statute Miles Temperature: 44 F Wind from: Northwest (300 deg)
Dewpoint: 39 F Wind Speed: 26.5 mph (23 kts) Relative Humidity:82.3% Gusting To: 42.6 mph (37 kts)
Clouds:Scattered at 1300ft Broken at 2100ft Solid Overcast at 3200ft Weather: rain​

 

[cdcollura]

When you see DK talking about chasing "winter" hurricanes - You can pretty much forget about the season. He did the same thing, in desperation to stand and lean in winds over 50 MPH, since the tropics were SO CRAPPY.

2007, HATE TO SAY, is simply 2006 all over again ;-(

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Invest 94L has been over land for several days now, yet pressures remain quite low and the circulation remains intact.

In the meantime, a new 1004-mb low has formed in the NW Caribbean, off Belize.

Something to watch!

 

[cdcollura]

Humm,

NHC talking about RISING pressures in the low in the SW caribbean.

Pressures need to FALL (not RISE) for tropical development ;-)

Bummer (but not so suprised anymore)...

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Weird Re: the pressures rising. Anyway, I see it's expected to drift W and go back over land soon anyway. (Grrrrr.) However, one of the mets on another forum says he thinks it has a shot in a couple of days, when it emerges in the Bay of Campeche. I'm certainly not holding my breath about that!