INVEST 94L east coast threat code Orange

[J Kinkaid]

A low pressure system is located a couple hundred miles southeast of
wilmington north carolina. Although this low is currently
associated with a frontal zone...it has the potential to develop
into a tropical or subtropical cyclone as it moves slowly westward
over the next day or two. High surf and dangerous rip currents
associated with this system will affect portions of the u.s. East
coast for the next several days. Consult statements from local
national weather service forecast offices for additional
information

 

[Thomas Spence]

94L really developed overnight. QuikSCAT shows a large area of gale force winds to the north and west along with 50+ knot winds to the N and NW as well. This will cause some very dangerous surf and beach erosion along the Outer Banks at least the next 2 days. I dunno if it will develop into a Sub or Tropical system over time, but it will create dangerous conditions along the coast.

 

[Tim Kosier]

94l already causing ploblems, Hwy 12 closed from Oregon Inlet south to town of Rodathe. Ocean overwash and sand on the road being the cause at this time.

 

[Chip Redmond]

It seems once a year a system like this develops suddenly off the east coast and causes havoc. It doesn't appear that susceptable to develop into a tropical storm. My guess is that it will move westward for a bit and remain nearly stationary just off the coast till a front gets organized in the west and moves eastward through the eastern US.

What happened to the big old trough that looked good last week? It could have pushed this system off the coast but it seemed to turn into nothing and slipped into Cananda. The models keep trying to develop a trough at 138-168 hours out but thats probably it just trying to not agree with the uneventful pattern thats in place.

The late season warm water off the coast and relatively low shear is the only thing really holding this system together.

Chip

 

[Darren Stephens]

Last update from NHC showed a moderate risk of further development

 

[Chad Cowan]

Threat Level: Midnight