evan anderson
EF0
Could not resist making this post in February. We'll take the rain...
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201290_model.html
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201290_model.html
Invest 90
- Thread starter evan anderson
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Zach Young
Man, if the Gulf is still warm enough to produce an Invest in February, what's it going to be like later on this year?
Ari Brown
EF0
Exactly my thoughts. Due to the unseasonably mild temperatures across most of the U.S. this winter, ocean waters have not cooled off much. If we make it through June and July without any GOM activity and then have a storm get in there in August or September, it's going to be absolutely nuts.
Zach Young
I view it more like, if nothing comes along to cool the waters before they start to really warm back up again, June and July could be like August and September in terms of energy supply. Unless there's a lot of shear in the tropics to kill off the storms, hurricane season could start very early.
cdcollura
EF5
Good day all,
Interesting stuff ... But usually these "weird" (or out-of-season) systems don't mean the upcoming main season would be busy or not-busy.
This system is more of a mid-level / semi-subtropical system, and has happened many times before in that part of the Carribean. As of now (Feb 6), the convection is highly displaced to the NE of the surface trough and the system is becoming more of a trough than a closed low.
As for the upcoming season, the warm winter may give the Gulf of Mexico a "head-start" heat-budget wise, but keep in mind that the rest of the tropics is rarely touched by cool air / fronts anyway, regardless of how bad the winter is in the mid-latitudes.
Ofcourse, if there is an active subtropical jet, like 2010 and 2011, nothing would form over the Gulf of Mexico anyway due to the high shear, and anything east of the US would also be weakened and / or recurve out to sea.
Interesting stuff ... But usually these "weird" (or out-of-season) systems don't mean the upcoming main season would be busy or not-busy.
This system is more of a mid-level / semi-subtropical system, and has happened many times before in that part of the Carribean. As of now (Feb 6), the convection is highly displaced to the NE of the surface trough and the system is becoming more of a trough than a closed low.
As for the upcoming season, the warm winter may give the Gulf of Mexico a "head-start" heat-budget wise, but keep in mind that the rest of the tropics is rarely touched by cool air / fronts anyway, regardless of how bad the winter is in the mid-latitudes.
Ofcourse, if there is an active subtropical jet, like 2010 and 2011, nothing would form over the Gulf of Mexico anyway due to the high shear, and anything east of the US would also be weakened and / or recurve out to sea.
Zach Young
I checked out SST anomalies and the Gulf is running just about average for this time of year. Maybe 0.5-1.0C above. I don't exactly have an encyclopedic knowledge of out-of-season invests, so it's easy for my imagination to run away with itself 
On another note, flipping through a few months of SST anomalies, one does get the impression that La Nina conditions in the E Pacific seem to be weakening...
On another note, flipping through a few months of SST anomalies, one does get the impression that La Nina conditions in the E Pacific seem to be weakening...
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