Interesting cyclonic system for the week ahead?

[Andy Wehrle]

Sure this is just model speculation, but I need something to investigate during this stretch of boring, quiet weather. Oh well, at least we're seeing highs in the 40s...

From the CPC:

Short wave energy wrapping around the base of this trough is forecast to eject eastward across the central Rockies and central Plains, then following more of a northeasterly track towards the upper Great Lakes region. Current thinking is that a low pressure system is likely to develop at the surface and move across those areas, though the future intensity of this system is even more uncertain.

Heavy snow and strong winds are possible from Colorado and Wyoming eastward and northeastward into the upper Great Lakes region. Whether or not this system develops into a blizzard remains to be seen, but it does bear watching.

Rain (perhaps up to 1.25") is forecast in the warm sector of this cyclone, with the heaviest amounts anticipated across east Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. Thunderstorms are also possible in the warm sector, and we will have to monitor the potential for severe weather in subsequent model runs.

Post your wishcasts, model run dissections, etc here.

 

[Tim Stoecklein]

They've already started to mention this system in the 7-day forecasts here. The storm track is very uncertain at this time, but heavy snowfall seems to be in the works. Now where did I put that shovel........

Tim

 

[Joel Wright]

Most of the models have been breaking it up into small shortwaves. They have been pretty inconsistant though, so I guess we'll see.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Man, the only thing that catches my eye, is the fact that it will be stealing our warmth!

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Looking at the strong lee-troughing and nice shear profiles, I can atleast imagine what the risk area would look like if it were May, and we had 65-75 degree Tds... Classic plains severe weather event? Perhaps, though the models continue to be quite inconsistent... well, that and the severe wx threat is contingent on >60 tds LOL :wink:

 

[Dan Cook]

I really really hope this is snow. I'm sick of this warm weather in Feb crap. :x

 

[Jay McCoy]

Originally posted by Dan Cook
I really really hope this is snow. I'm sick of this warm weather in Feb crap. :x

A chaser hoping this is snow instead of thunderstorms????? :roll:

I dont care if its Christmas day. I will take any chance for good convection.

 

[Dan Cook]

Originally posted by Jay McCoy+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Jay McCoy)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-Dan Cook

I really really hope this is snow. I'm sick of this warm weather in Feb crap. :x

A chaser hoping this is snow instead of thunderstorms????? :roll:

I dont care if its Christmas day. I will take any chance for good convection.[/b]

It's winter. It should be cold and snowing in winter, and hot and stormy in the summer. 8)

 

[George Tincher]

Originally posted by Dan Cook+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Dan Cook)</div>

Originally posted by Jay McCoy@
<!--QuoteBegin-Dan Cook

I really really hope this is snow. I'm sick of this warm weather in Feb crap. :x

A chaser hoping this is snow instead of thunderstorms????? :roll:

I dont care if its Christmas day. I will take any chance for good convection.

It's winter. It should be cold and snowing in winter, and hot and stormy in the summer. 8)[/b]

Actually, when things are normal, Summer should be rather hot and dry as the ridge builds in.

Of course the past few years, it seems Summer has remained very wet here with temps rather pleasant for the most part. Last year didn't see one single day climb above the 90 degree mark at my location. But hey, you won't see me complaining about that!

And I'll take every warm day I can throughout Winter. The dark, gloomy, dreary, cold days of Winter depress me. So gimme all the 50 and 60 degree days I can get in February!

-George

 

[Andy Wehrle]

CPC hazards update

CPC Hazards Assessment Update for 2/04/2005:

Our primary concern at this time is the possible development of a storm over the central and eastern United States sometime between February 8th and 10th, which is a bit later than models were indicating yesterday. This potential storm may generate multiple hazards across this region, such as heavy snow and strong winds, heavy rain, and also strong to severe thunderstorms.

Heavy snow and strong winds are possible over the central and northern MS Valley and much of the Great Lakes region from February 8th to 10th.

This would be interesting, as we have yet to see a really significant blizzard-type winter storm in WI (at least in the places where I've been) yet this winter. Unfortunately it would mean an end to our 45-50 degree temperatures .

a threat of severe weather looms over the deep South during this same period.

At last, some Gulf air makes it onto the continent!

 

[Joel Wright]

I've pretty much given up on snowstorms. I'm ready for spring. Today's temps in the 50's is pretty damn nice.

 

[Kurt Hulst]

There should only be three seasons I say. Spring, Spring, and Fall

 

[Robert Dewey]

I hope it's a good snow storm, I too am sick of this warm crap (and by warm, I'm talkin the upper 30's today!). As for good thunderstorms, nothing good happens this far north this early in the season...