In a bad chase year, be thankful for what you've seen

[Jeremy Bower]

I find this thread very enlightening and pretty much therapeutic in a way. My chase career has been somewhat mediocre in my eyes due to the lack of results. I couldn't chase in 2010 or 2011 due to some personal matters that were beyond my control and it was relatively easy to sit out those years and take care of more important things. I took care of what I needed to take care of and since 2012 I've been able to have at least one week to chase every year.

2012: Ridge
2013: El Reno
2014: Ridge - managed to see some photogenic storms in July, I had narrowed my choices that year to June 13-20 or July 1-8. Work commitment forced me to with July. Ugh.
2015: Blah - went home on May 27 so I missed Canadian
2016: Ridge - didn't see much, I had narrowed my choices that year to May 21-28 or June 11-18. Went with June. Big mistake.
2017: Blah
2018: Probably Ridge or Blah

I'm used to it now.

I have two passions in my life: weather and photography. I just want one photo of a nice striated supercell. Don't even need a tornado although that would be the icing on the cake. I keep asking myself, "Will it ever happen? Everyone else seemingly makes this look so easy." Worst thing to do is try to compare your success to someone else. That is the pitfall of social media.

However, I'm very thankful that my health has been improved and I've had some great opportunities to speak at events across the country on my photography these past couple years. All about perspective and to never quit.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Other interests are helpful as Jeff Duda notes. I would add outdoor interests are particularly helpful. 2017 goes in the books a a great year because of the eclipse, though I punted my storm chase. Chase or not, by summer I look fwd to our family trip(s) to the beach and/or mountains. Also got weekends on the lake. Come fall it is time for fall foliage. I'm in Tenn. Winter I like to snow ski. Our child is old enough next year we're going out West!

.

Jeff that’s a good point about outdoor interests being particularly helpful. I think a large part of the appeal of chasing is just being out there “communing with nature” so to speak. It seems to fulfill a primal need in that regard. I think it’s because I spend so much time in an office (and my main physical pursuits - jiu jitsu and weight training - are also indoors) - or in otherwise heavily populated areas - that when I finally get out there it’s like “yes, THIS is what has been missing!” Although there aren’t too many outdoor activities I am likely to get into at this point that provide the same thrill plus intellectual stimuli as chasing, I have definitely experienced *some* similar therapeutic effects from just being outdoors, even just in a park or my own backyard.


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[Chad M]

It's all about perspective.

Everyone else is down on 2018, but my "dream" came true when I watched the Tescott/Culver tornado wedge out and cross the road less than 1/2 mile in front of me.

2016 was terrible for me. I missed every major event that year due to work and/or my very pregnant fiancé at the time. Seems like it was a great year for every other chaser.

Any time I get too down about not being able to chase, busting, or terrible weather patterns, I think back to the past when I did not live in the plains or have the means to chase storms hundreds of miles away from home.

Just like everything else in life, you have to know how to take the bad along with the good.

 

[Ethan Schisler]

I agree with your comment @Chad M. I had a not so stellar 2016 missing the Dodge City/Chapman days due to work/other obligations....and the days I went to the plains under-peformed (May 26-27) or I stayed back and didn't chase (May 9). Although there were several days I got good catches within a reasonable drive of home and even a couple days in the plains earlier on and some of my best lightning catches that summer. So in the end, what I'm saying is that you take the good with the bad, you won't be able to see every major tornado there is every single year. Just have to be happy with what you DO see and I think as others have stated on other threads, social media nowadays makes it harder to respect what you have and not be jealous of what others have. Sometimes even stepping back from social media is what it takes to be more respecting of all that you've got.

But as Dan said on the opening post to this thread, look around, look at your own catches, if you've done well the last several years with some of the bigger events, you should feel good about yourself in the storm chasing department. Success in chasing is also largely personal too, what one considers a success, might not be as successful to someone else.....perspective is key.

 

[Drew Terril]

I have to echo what Jeff said about other hobbies. Granted, my perspective is a bit different as I had chased for years in Dixie and never had a chance to chase the plains even once while I still lived in Kentucky and Tennessee. I only really got to come home around the winter holidays, and my last employer in TN had vacation shutdowns in mid summer instead of me choosing when I could take it. For the most part, my opportunities didn't increase I moved back close to where I grew up, but I was (and still am) used to that. Had flexibility from late 2013 to early 2016, but no money to take advantage of that. 2016 was a career change year and, while I don't have the flexibility now to chase outside of my weekends, I'm not having to strain my finances when an opportunity does arise. It's a sacrifice I made in order to not live paycheck to paycheck. That said, I have other stuff I can do if there aren't storms. In fact, I should probably use this lull to finish up a couple of projects I have going on. I don't have the big name storms on my resume that pretty much anyone has who started chasing when I did (like all those storms that Dan mentioned), but I feel like I've been able to make the most of the limited opportunities that I've had over the years.

 

[JamesCaruso]

I’ve got some of the events Dan mentioned in his OP. But I also missed some of those, plus many others. I don’t worry about the ones I miss when it’s because they were outside of my chase vacation, there’s not much I can do about that, I’m always going to miss stuff as long as I am limited to an annual two-week chase vacation. But many of the other misses bother me. I know not everyone gets everything, but I get really frustrated when I make costly mistakes on a high-stakes day. I hate to squander opportunities, when there just aren’t that many to begin with as a chase vacationer. There are even events I was at but regret not getting closer when I easily (and safely) could have. I know it’s about perspective etc., but I’m a “Type A” perfectionist in just about everything. Each season is an opportunity to redeem oneself from the prior year’s perceived mistakes. 2013 was my greatest chasing failure, finding a way to screw up every single day during that incredibly active last two weeks of May. But there were limited opportunities to redeem myself during my chase trips of 2014 or 2015. In 2016 there was Dodge City which was awesome but that feeling of success was short-lived as I missed Chapman the next day and ended up going home early with the activity shutting down right after. Then 2017 was crap. So that’s what makes this year even more frustrating, the inability to supersede some of these failures with a more recent success - Dodge City being the only notable success in 5 years now. I am not saying there weren’t other successes in there, it’s not just about the tornado for me, but you know what I am saying, all these years have been relatively lean pickings, at least during my chase trips.

Another thing is that the older I get, the more I become aware of how short life is. I started chasing 22 years ago, so even if God blesses me with the health and physical vitality to continue chasing into my 70s, my chase career is already half over. When I think about having only another 20-something chase trips left in my lifetime, wasting one entire season is not insignificant.

 

[Jeff House]

I will be in my 70s when a 6.5 minute total solar eclipse goes through the Deep South. I'll be there even if on a wheel chair, lol! Of course I'm looking forward to 2024 first. If the PDO stays out of whack for storms, I'm seriously considering South America Eclipse 2019 . Also considering an aurora trip in a few years, but not while going into a solar min.

James it sounds like 2013 was a bummer. However my 2016 is basically a carbon copy of yours, and I consider it a well above average chase trip. Going home early = better efficiency, lol. Missing Chapman barely bothers me, but I do remember every time Bennington wedges, lol. I believe if one acted logically it is easier to let go. Winds were backed and stronger east of ICT. Sure the TP was up north, but I had dewpoint concerns. My only mistake is that my east of ICT winds were not on a defined boundary. Would I go north in next time? TP over dews? Honestly I do not know.

Still, I think it is most important to follow our own rules - kind of like trading stocks. I did. You probably did too. However everyone is different, shaped by our history. When the WF and OFB become separated I have enjoyed more success on the OFB than the WF. Therefore, I chase the OFB. Other chasers have different strategies, likely based on their experiences. If one has scored big on the WF (Quinter/Bennington 1-3) they probably chase the WF. I hit multi-cycle gold on south OFB 5/24/08 and Rozel; so, I'm sold on the OFB.

So back to 5/25/16, I did what I always do and went south. Main difference is no clear OFB. I was working with only, backed surface winds. Maybe I'd go north next time. Dew at/above 68 I'd go north. Dew 60-65, I'd probably stay south again. With that, I cannot be mad at myself for following my rules/system. James if you followed your rules, just say oh well we got Dodge!

Anybody who saw Dodge saw the best chase show of a lifetime. Wish I'd seen Pilger double big, and Wray perfection, but I was not in the field those days. Harper-Attica had 4-5 cycles, but single tornadoes - again an all time favorite for me. 5/24/08 had 3-4 cycles, a nice consolation after missing Quinter. Rozel was beautiful but only two cycles. Dodge had at least 4 cycles, with 2-3 tornadoes on a couple of those cycles. I really doubt we'll ever beat Dodge. We were there! Boo-yah!!

 

[JamesCaruso]

...Missing Chapman barely bothers me, but I do remember every time Bennington wedges, lol. I believe if one acted logically it is easier to let go. Winds were backed and stronger east of ICT. Sure the TP was up north, but I had dewpoint concerns. My only mistake is that my east of ICT winds were not on a defined boundary. Would I go north in next time? TP over dews? Honestly I do not know.

Still, I think it is most important to follow our own rules - kind of like trading stocks. I did. You probably did too. However everyone is different, shaped by our history. When the WF and OFB become separated I have enjoyed more success on the OFB than the WF. Therefore, I chase the OFB. Other chasers have different strategies, likely based on their experiences. If one has scored big on the WF (Quinter/Bennington 1-3) they probably chase the WF. I hit multi-cycle gold on south OFB 5/24/08 and Rozel; so, I'm sold on the OFB.

So back to 5/25/16, I did what I always do and went south. Main difference is no clear OFB. I was working with only, backed surface winds. Maybe I'd go north next time. Dew at/above 68 I'd go north. Dew 60-65, I'd probably stay south again. With that, I cannot be mad at myself for following my rules/system. James if you followed your rules, just say oh well we got Dodge!
!!

Well Jeff, I don’t know if I really followed my usual rules on Chapman day, but the alternate east-of-ICT target area was certainly justifiable in any case. What bothers me about that day is that I was largely nonchalant about it overall. You may recall it was actually not a great setup as it appeared that morning, and even later that day the ICT target was somewhat conditional as to initiation. After Dodge City the day before, we just weren’t particularly interested in the setup and basically thought, we haven’t had a proper sit down dinner for the past five nights, let’s just go to ICT and if things don’t work out we can have a great dinner and drinks in the city. On the way to ICT, we saw the northern cell go up on radar, but it was 80 miles away from us at that point and I never like the idea of deviating from the target to go after the first shiny object. I can’t deny that the dinner idea was still in the back of my mind. How stupid, I mean we are out there to chase, not go to restaurants.

Still, I guess I shouldn’t be too hard on myself, I don’t think anybody really anticipated how the day would turn out, and it was probably understandable after the previous amazing day to be a little complacent, to not expect that anything nearly as great could possibly happen, and to just want to relax and bask in the previous day’s success without trying too hard and investing so much in the current day’s chase.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Most of my lifetime chase perspective comes from the sentiments of 1980s chasers, particularly as shown in the NOVA special. Those guys had a "memorable" intercept (by today's standards) maybe once every 5-6 years. "Down" years (without a tornado) were almost the norm rather than the exception like we tend to experience today. "Photogenic" events were even more rare. Most never experienced a day like DDC '16. In those circles, there was talk of a "Sunray" event (referring to a legendary intercept in Texas the early 1970s) - in other words, the defining intercept of your career. A chaser in those days would be thankful to have just one "Sunray" to their name after 20 years.

Our knowledge and technology has given us much greater success rates than the 80s veterans. We tend to have "Sunrays" every 5 years or less, it's possible for the average chaser to accumulate 3 or 4 of those type of "lifetime" events even with modest chasing. But the fluctuations in chase years are still present as they were in the first decades of the hobby. It's nature we're dealing with, it operates on its own whims. I almost think it's something to appreciate rather than lament - it's just the nature of the phenomenon we love.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Most of my lifetime chase perspective comes from the sentiments of 1980s chasers, particularly as shown in the NOVA special. Those guys had a "memorable" intercept (by today's standards) maybe once every 5-6 years. "Down" years (without a tornado) were almost the norm rather than the exception like we tend to experience today. "Photogenic" events were even more rare. Most never experienced a day like DDC '16. In those circles, there was talk of a "Sunray" event (referring to a legendary intercept in Texas the early 1970s) - in other words, the defining intercept of your career. A chaser in those days would be thankful to have just one "Sunray" to their name after 20 years.

Our knowledge and technology has given us much greater success rates than the 80s veterans. We tend to have "Sunrays" every 5 years or less, it's possible for the average chaser to accumulate 3 or 4 of those type of "lifetime" events even with modest chasing. But the fluctuations in chase years are still present as they were in the first decades of the hobby. I't nature we're dealing with, it operates on its own whims. I almost think it's something to appreciate rather than lament - it's just the nature of the phenomenon we love.

As usual, you add an interesting perspective Dan. The fact that when the best events occur we are nowadays able to be there to see them, means that the down periods feel that much worse. In the past, even when a good event occurred, it was probably more likely than not that a chaser *wouldn’t* be there to see it. That made each year’s experience a little more comparable I would think - only modest success, no matter how good the pattern was or wasn’t. A flatter line on a metaphorical chart.

But regardless, this year really sucks [emoji57] I mean, forget big events, we can barely get a supercell of any kind in peak season.


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[Jeff House]

Great example of enjoying the moment, other than tornadoes, in the Target Area. See Quincy's 5/23 Report in Target Area. The horse in front of supercell is a great shot. Plus I guess the horses were friendly. Hey, those chase partners won't be disagreeable, lol!

I wanted to reply to @Quincy Vagell right there, but I do not have a report. Those moments can make a chase day.

Hopefully we'll get more of the tornadic moments we are looking for next week. Moisture concerns remain, but models are converging on good wind fields for the time of year. If trends hold/improve I may have more to say in Advanced Wx/Chasing tomorrow.

 

[Jason Boggs]

I agree that it hasn't been the best of years, but I've seen some great storms! Luckily for me, I'm as happy with great structure as I am with a tornado.

 

[JamesCaruso]

For 2018, I am trying to come back from my chase vacation grateful for the experience. It’s an adventure, and that means it’s unpredictable, which is part of the appeal. This means, in turn, that you have to be willing to take the good with the bad and almost embrace the “bad” as an integral part of the appeal of this avocation. It’s also what makes the best stuff so rewarding, always looking for the Holy Grail precisely because it’s so rare. The busts, the bad chasing decisions, the failure of the atmospheric ingredients to come together, those elements are all part of it. They become part of our personal chasing tapestries, the stories we tell ourselves and each other, the things we commiserate about with our chase partners when we go out next year. Would we even like chasing as much if it was always predictably and reliably good???

Particular experiences I will look back fondly on this year include an evening outside at the Bolo Beer Company in Valentine Nebraska, and discovering the Kinkaider Brewing Company in the middle of nowhere on a back road in Broken Bow Nebraska, drinking a jalapeño ale on the deck while watching a mammatus and lightning display, a dream combination of a few of my favorite things. Also had my first night out in downtown Denver, had a great sushi dinner and stayed at a nice hotel that helped facilitate the “transition” from chasing life to real life. Of course I enjoyed the chases, the analysis and the lessons learned, even on days that didn’t go well - but it’s tough to have to wait a whole year to put those lessons into practice.

 

[John Farley]

@JamesCaruso Since you have mentioned transitioning back to "real life" a couple times, I think a story is in order. Once when I still lived in the Midwest, I went on a fly fishing trip in Montana and Wyoming with a college friend who, sadly, is no longer with us. On the last day, I said to Ed, well, I guess tomorrow we go back to real life. He replied, "No, THIS is real life, and don't ever forget it." I haven't, and I think this could be applied to chasing, too.

 

[JamesCaruso]

@JamesCaruso Since you have mentioned transitioning back to "real life" a couple times, I think a story is in order. Once when I still lived in the Midwest, I went on a fly fishing trip in Montana and Wyoming with a college friend who, sadly, is no longer with us. On the last day, I said to Ed, well, I guess tomorrow we go back to real life. He replied, "No, THIS is real life, and don't ever forget it." I haven't, and I think this could be applied to chasing, too.

John - Your friend Ed sounds like a wise man. Sorry to hear that he is no longer with us. Thanks for sharing this.