Brendon Lindsey
EF3
Cherokee county winds up to 12mph forecasted with almost an inch of Ice could do some damage... Im quite right.... right? Do we think it will really add up to a Cat 4?
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Ice Storm- OK/MO/AR/TX/KY
- Thread starter Jeff Piotrowski
- Start date
David Schuttler
EF5
I've already filled up the veicles,added to the propane bottle stash and hit the atm but I'm still leaning with an Okmulgee to Muskogee line than Tulsa.
It's always a toss up of which to hope for as the streets are driveable in an ice storm vs. if we end up with the sleet the streets will be solid ice for a week but I'll be warm.....
It's always a toss up of which to hope for as the streets are driveable in an ice storm vs. if we end up with the sleet the streets will be solid ice for a week but I'll be warm.....
David Reimer
EF2
The 12Z NAM and GFS are the difference between night and day for Dallas. The NAM has us near or at freezing during the majority of the event while the GFS has us in the upper 50's to near 60.
Brian Emfinger
EF4
Is that the SPIA Index that i've heard some about or is it different. I am in a 4 but not far from that 5 (10 miles). Some of those places up there that are in black would be without electricity for weeks easily. My mother in law is up in that area and the road/electrical line corridors are completely hemmed in with trees... on a side note my time lapse camera is up there so I will get the whole process - if the tree I am attached to doesnt fall.
Brandon Ivey
EF2
Did mother nature forget about Wichita, KS this winter? This winter sucks! I don't mind the cold as long as we get some precip. and that has been scarce this year. We will get some early this week, but as of yet, it does not look like much! I wish I could take off work, but would rather save that time for actual storm chasing. I am desperate to do some blizzard or ice storm chasing though! That will help pass the time until spring arrives. Jan/Feb are always the hardest months for me to get through. 
Jeff Richardson
EF2
It's interesting to hear a local radio station here in Tulsa preempting syndicated programming for local broadcasting concerning a "impending severe winter weather emergency" which also includes a live broadcast of a press briefing from the Tulsa EOC. After the widespread ice storm of Dec. '07, I think a lot of folks in this part of the plains are pretty gun shy about any sleet/freezing rain scenario.
With the most recent model runs, I'm more confident that the heaviest band of freezing rain will run from east central OK to south central MO. With Winter Storm Watches running all the way to VA, I think this will be a substantial large-scale event.
http://kamala.cod.edu/ok/latest.fxus64.KTSA.html
With the most recent model runs, I'm more confident that the heaviest band of freezing rain will run from east central OK to south central MO. With Winter Storm Watches running all the way to VA, I think this will be a substantial large-scale event.
http://kamala.cod.edu/ok/latest.fxus64.KTSA.html
David Schuttler
EF5
The Tulsa area has not been fixed from the 2007 ice storm. Even the winds of Friday and Saturday had lines arching around town still.
Karla Dorman
They're calling for it here, too, in North Central Texas. Don't mind rain - needed badly - but ice, a whole new ballgame. Walking on a cane, I'll be housebound. Not good.
Jeff Piotrowski
EF3
Ice Storm
New OZ 4KM WRf has the .50+ band closer to Tulsa then the 12Z run. Looks like some convection by 21Z with ice accumulating in the 28 wet bulb temp runs about South Tulsa toward Joplin by OZ.
New OZ 4KM WRf has the .50+ band closer to Tulsa then the 12Z run. Looks like some convection by 21Z with ice accumulating in the 28 wet bulb temp runs about South Tulsa toward Joplin by OZ.
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Brendon Lindsey
EF3
What would you say the chances of the models going back to saying near an inch of ice in NE E OK rather than a 1/4?
Greg McLaughlin
EF5
Well Brendon, the models often have a difficult time predicting the placement of precip with isentropic lift setups like the one forecast tomorrow into Tuesday. I have learned to look at the 850mb and 700mb frontogenesis location to get a better idea where concentrated precip may develop.
The models have slowly been bringing the heavier swath of precip further west with each successive run.
Jason Young
EF2
Norman NWS is calling for 1/2 inch here . I think it would be cool to get it , but at the same time we went 3 weeks with out power in the Christmas 2000 ice storm .
Brian Stertz
EF5
Yep Jeff this one has the makings of a pretty major ice storm....GFS has been much more impressive with QPF and stronger with things all along. If this verifies, then somebody between Tulsa OK and Springfield MO will have some severe glazing...maybe upwards to an inch of ice....locally more if some t-storms are able to develop during the height of action with the first wave tomorrow night. It will be interesting to watch the banding set up. Ice Storm Warning for sure.
Brandon Sullivan
EF5
Ice Storm- OK/MO/AR/TX
Looking at forecast soundings I would agree that Northern AR where the Ice Storm Warning is already placed, is in store for a significant ice storm.
00z Models came in showing a little more moisture than previous..
Thermal profiles from BUFKIT data show precip to start in the form of ZR over Northern AR and Southern MO by Mid Evening and continuing overnight. The GFS is showing total ice accumulations over 1 inch in Northern AR. While the NAM is less agressive, while showing a messy mix of snow, ice pellets and freezing rain.. The mixed Ptypes have cut down on Ice Totals in the NAM, with the model nearly half as agressive with Ice accumulations.
Also browsed through SREF Members.. Hmm...
PType forecast, and other output from SREF mean leads me to believe the GFS has the best handle on it...
I believe North Central and North West Arkansas, with adjacent parts of missourri will see a significant icing event! Looks like areas in Northern AR could see widespread 3/4 to 1 inch ice accumulations!
Looking at forecast soundings I would agree that Northern AR where the Ice Storm Warning is already placed, is in store for a significant ice storm.
00z Models came in showing a little more moisture than previous..
Thermal profiles from BUFKIT data show precip to start in the form of ZR over Northern AR and Southern MO by Mid Evening and continuing overnight. The GFS is showing total ice accumulations over 1 inch in Northern AR. While the NAM is less agressive, while showing a messy mix of snow, ice pellets and freezing rain.. The mixed Ptypes have cut down on Ice Totals in the NAM, with the model nearly half as agressive with Ice accumulations.
Also browsed through SREF Members.. Hmm...
PType forecast, and other output from SREF mean leads me to believe the GFS has the best handle on it...
I believe North Central and North West Arkansas, with adjacent parts of missourri will see a significant icing event! Looks like areas in Northern AR could see widespread 3/4 to 1 inch ice accumulations!
Dal Archer
Models coming in to fairly decent agreement now. It appears that the cold air is going to be a little deeper than first thought which should benefit the Tulsa metro area proper. At this time, it appears that the metro area will see more of a sleet event. Obviously better for the trees and power lines, but could make travel difficult.
However, the deeper cold air is setting the stage for a major ice storm just to the south and east of Tulsa (Muskogee down to McAlester and points east). It now seems that the bulk of precipitation will be in the form of freezing rain, rather than simply rain changing over some time tonight. Temps in this area are at freezing or below already and with the evaporational cooling that should occur as precip starts most precip will be some form of ice (most likely freezing rain).
This could now set the stage for a major ice storm in the Eastern & SE OK area along with the aforementioned Arkansas, Southern Missouri area.
Initially I looked for most of the major icing to be further to the east (Ark), but now I am beginning to believe portions of Eastern Oklahoma could be in for big trouble.
However, the deeper cold air is setting the stage for a major ice storm just to the south and east of Tulsa (Muskogee down to McAlester and points east). It now seems that the bulk of precipitation will be in the form of freezing rain, rather than simply rain changing over some time tonight. Temps in this area are at freezing or below already and with the evaporational cooling that should occur as precip starts most precip will be some form of ice (most likely freezing rain).
This could now set the stage for a major ice storm in the Eastern & SE OK area along with the aforementioned Arkansas, Southern Missouri area.
Initially I looked for most of the major icing to be further to the east (Ark), but now I am beginning to believe portions of Eastern Oklahoma could be in for big trouble.
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