I Need Your Opinion-Ryan Hall (YouTube Storm-caster)

[Saul Trabal]

Happy New Year, folks...

So, I just started following this fellow's page. Very interesting stuff. Are any of you familiar with him-and do you have opinions?

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCJHAT3Uvv-g3I8H3GhHWV7w

 

[rdale]

He's not a meteorologist, so these pages are cute but should not be used for any real educational purpose.

 

[Phil R]

I claim no expertise with meteorology, but he seems to understand how things work for tornadic storms, and in the 2 months or so I've been watching him on YouTube he's been pretty darn close with his predictions regarding location, timing, and scope of events. More "Hollywood" than I'd like but not as over-sensationalized like some others on YT are. He's been better on seeing tornadic events 5-7 days out than anyone else I've found including the SPC, and he's rocketing upward on YT past the others I've seen there. Always reminds people to keep abreast of their local weather sources and not just him. Good for the public, especially his livestream coverage.

And I know some will be offended, but I couldn't care less about someone's credentials as long as their results are above average. Only results count, not how you get there.

Phil

 

[Mike Smith]

There are some excellent forecasters who are not meteorologists and there are some PhD's in meteorology who are terrible forecasters.

While knowledge is important, instinct and judgment are also important. And, a helpful hint: When it comes to models, less is more.

 

[James K]

I can't really give an opinion other than:
I've seen his videos come up when doing searches on YouTube...
But I pass over them because the thumbnails look so clickbait-spam!

 

[rdale]

He's been better on seeing tornadic events 5-7 days out than anyone else I've found including the SPC

For those newer to the “weathercaster hall of fame” - good intentioned people like him ALWAYS see a tornado event 5-7 days out.

Always.

90% don’t pan out, but the 10% that do magically turns them into better than SPC

Again it’s all for fun, but don’t confuse someone using the GFS 384hr forecast daily and getting it right once or twice a month with someone adding value.

But enjoy the Videos.

 

[Warren Faidley]

I've seen multiple chasers using those same colorful, eye-catching graphics on social media. The danger here are people who begin to use such forecasts for critical decisions, as opposed to reliable sources like the SPC and local NWS discussions. For example, this past weekend's potential was blown totally out of proportion by a lot of the usual social media "experts," including at least one PhD (climatologist). It's all for over-exciting followers and making more cash.

 

[rdale]

I got railed by social mediarologists for not going with 10" plus forecasts for Michigan on Saturday... I stuck my guns with 3-6" even as models still said 6-9", and got several who challenged me publicly and privately.

Then they went quiet on Sunday and deleted their posts or blocked me

 

[Alex Elmore]

For those newer to the “weathercaster hall of fame” - good intentioned people like him ALWAYS see a tornado event 5-7 days out.

Always.

90% don’t pan out, but the 10% that do magically turns them into better than SPC

Preach! The amount of times a deterministic run shows a severe weather setup 5-7 days out vs. that actually coming to fruition is likely a very off-balance ratio. If my job didn't depend on an accurate forecast and not scaring the hell out of people every time I see a trough digging over an unstable airmass a week out, sure, I'd call out everything I see too. And I'd be right for every severe event that actually happened, but the number of false alarms...oof.

As for the question at hand, I've heard mixed things about him. I recall quite a bit of fuss surrounding him regarding a car accident while chasing in Spring 2021, the role he played, and the aftermath, but I'm not sure on the details. I generally don't put complete faith in anyone with a business/massive following on a social media platform. Their making money from the platform requires them to maintain and build a following, which usually involves adding an element of drama or hype into their product or craft.

 

[Ethan Schisler]

I don't really follow many "newer/younger/recent chasers" since *most* (not all) strike me as doing it for monetary gain or "popularity" and followers.

The reality is *nobody* really cares how many tornadoes you've seen, how close you've gotten, or how many hurricanes you've been in. It is a fact that I think everyone who chases should learn, there is literally nobody outside the "weather community" who cares about that stuff. Hell most of my family rolls their eyes when I even bring up the idea of my chasing adventures lol.

Most people have very short memories and they won't even remember seeing you on TV, which is why "credit" to me means nothing. Go to a party that isn't weather related and mention how you got close to a large tornado and most people will probably say "oh cool" and then 5 minutes later forget about it or some may even yawn and move on to someone more interesting with more "normal" hobbies they can relate to. That is just human nature.

I'm kind of stuck in my old ways of the 2005-2010 era and stick with associating with long time older chasers. I'm also very anti-social too so that probably plays a big role. And now with the Covid-19 pandemic, I don't even get out to talk with other chasers anymore while waiting on storms. I'd rather sit in my car and do my own thing which is photography and waiting for storms to form lol. Maybe playing Tetris or Harry Potter on my phone if I have time to burn (yes I know I'm sort of a nerd).

I don't know who he is, but just browsing his channel and hearing some of the stuff I've heard on Twitter and Facebook following the accident last year....he strikes me as someone who is out there strictly for money and a "look at me!" type of thing versus actually the chasing aspect of it and enjoying it.

But then again, to each their own, I'm not out to judge anyone, like I said I prefer to do my own thing and I respect anyone else that wants to do the same, so I can't really put anyone else down on that front. People are going to do what they want and I don't see storm chasing getting any less popular and the roads getting any less clogged. Another reason those 2% and 5% days in the Midwest are so near and dear to me lol. But even those are starting to draw massive crowds of people to places that normally you would be hard pressed to find more than a handful of chasers on (days like 8/9 or 5/3 in IL which started out fairly marginal, but still drew quite a crowd). Just my 0.02, hopefully doesn't come across as condescending, definitely don't mean it that way, just my observations over the last several years of how things are evolving.

 

[Phil R]

Just loving all the comments from people who either admittedly or obviously have not done their research on Ryan. I learned long ago that you can't convince people of things they do not want to believe regardless of the proof offered so I don't waste my time on those worthless people trying to do that, nor do I kick dead horses expecting them to move.

For those of you who have looked here's some thoughts: everyone is in it for the money. All the SPC staff, all the local meteorologists, and all the youtubers make money for their efforts, so clearly there's nothing wrong with making money on this or you are condemning your own self and the entire profession too when you see something wrong with that.

On the road crash Ryan wasn't driving but it was his truck and he was in it. It was a not highly visible stop sign that wasn't seen till it was too late on a dark rainy unfamiliar road which met another road at an angle, thankfully just damaged vehicles but something every chaser know can easily happen. No worse than what I've seen videos of almost every chaser do on the roads really. It seems to have been the factor which turned Ryan from actively chasing to working his channel for storm prediction instead.

Yeah, he's got a "Hollywood" approach to things but that doesn't make him, his forecasting, or his accuracy bad automatically- how can it? The good side of that is it has brought weather awareness to lots of folks who weren't much interested in it before. He's reaching people who weren't being reached with the existing information disseminating structure. He approaches things at "common man" level instead of going totally technical like so many others do. He doesn't hide his faults or failures. And as I've said before he constantly tells people to not use him alone for their weather info source, but to always stay abreast of the local NWS and media, and even to watch the SPC too. It's a different approach but that doesn't make it a bad one. His results are better than most and that's good enough for me.

 

[Ethan Schisler]

Just loving all the comments from people who either admittedly or obviously have not done their research on Ryan. I learned long ago that you can't convince people of things they do not want to believe regardless of the proof offered so I don't waste my time on those worthless people trying to do that, nor do I kick dead horses expecting them to move.

For those of you who have looked here's some thoughts: everyone is in it for the money. All the SPC staff, all the local meteorologists, and all the youtubers make money for their efforts, so clearly there's nothing wrong with making money on this or you are condemning your own self and the entire profession too when you see something wrong with that.

On the road crash Ryan wasn't driving but it was his truck and he was in it. It was a not highly visible stop sign that wasn't seen till it was too late on a dark rainy unfamiliar road which met another road at an angle, thankfully just damaged vehicles but something every chaser know can easily happen. No worse than what I've seen videos of almost every chaser do on the roads really. It seems to have been the factor which turned Ryan from actively chasing to working his channel for storm prediction instead.

Yeah, he's got a "Hollywood" approach to things but that doesn't make him, his forecasting, or his accuracy bad automatically- how can it? The good side of that is it has brought weather awareness to lots of folks who weren't much interested in it before. He's reaching people who weren't being reached with the existing information disseminating structure. He approaches things at "common man" level instead of going totally technical like so many others do. He doesn't hide his faults or failures. And as I've said before he constantly tells people to not use him alone for their weather info source, but to always stay abreast of the local NWS and media, and even to watch the SPC too. It's a different approach but that doesn't make it a bad one. His results are better than most and that's good enough for me.

I don't know about anyone else here, but I take a loss pretty much every year chasing storms monetary wise. I've spent more money on photography gear for chasing and birding than I will probably ever see back in my life lol. Not to mention fuel, vehicle upkeep, insurance, etc. Just had to put a brand new set of tires on my car that cost me over $800 this fall and a new alternator in as well. Fuel here is upwards of 3.66 a gallon now. So I expect 2022 to spend as much as I did back in 2011 chasing storms.

If I was expecting to chase for money, I would have quit a long long time ago. If I'm even halfway lucky to make a video sale nowadays (I don't even shoot much video anymore, mostly photos for my own fun), its not even close enough to cover half my gas for a single chase trip from the Midwest to the Panhandle and back. I honestly don't think this thread should exist, if anything it belongs in the "Bears Cage" category as its mostly opinion oriented and could provoke an array of responses from many different chasers. Each one is entitled to their own opinion too.

 

[Warren Faidley]

If someone is reposting or colorfully consolidating statements by NWS offices or the SPC, then no one should have a problem with it. If you get people to pay attention, great. Unfortunately, chasing history has proven the best-intended endeavors can morph into a bamboozling existence, especially when people gain large followings and more complex / extreme measures are required to maintain attention and make more money. Thus, we see more and more "end of the world forecasts" further and further out on social media. (Not referring to Ryan or experimental modeling). I'm glad I don't depend on social media attention for my income.

 

[adlyons]

For those of you who have looked here's some thoughts: everyone is in it for the money. All the SPC staff, all the local meteorologists, and all the youtubers

If I was doing it just for the money id be asking for a hell of a lot more than I currently make . In all seriousness, I dont see anything wrong with people profiting off of weather or really any enterprise, but I think this might be a bit of an apples to oranges comparison between operation meteorologists and a youtuber.

 

[John Farley]

I do not know Ryan and have not looked at his stuff. So no opinion on him. However, I do not agree with the opinion a few posts up that "almost every chaser" has driven in ways that involve running stop signs. In all my chases over 25+ years I have never done that, and I think many other chasers also have never done that. Do not make excuses for stupid dangerous behavior.