Hurricane Isaac (2012)
- Thread starter evan anderson
- Start date
RMacDonald
Looks like the latest track is sliding out further westward. Thoughts on impacts to New Orleans area. Trying to hit up some fellow Air Force weather guys in Keesler AFB to see what they are tracking.
mkavulich
EF0
Yes, at this point. "Should" is a really improper word, given how uncertain the forecast is.
But the danger is there. Large wind field, near-perfect environment for rapid intensification, possible New Orleans landfall, and from a more dangerous angle than Katrina. The only possible saving grace is that the storm is so large it might not be able to reach its full potential before landfall.
Warren Faidley
Supporter
Good points by everyone. I'll be on the Gulf Coast tomorrow and it will be interesting to see how people are reacting. I get the feeling from afar, that there is not the usual "urgency" or "awareness" as with other recent hurricanes. This may be in part a result of poor media coverage of blowing everything out of proportions. Isaac is a potentially dangerous, "sleeper" hurricane that some models are predicting as a serious threat. I think the fact it is not monster right now could be a serious issue in 24 hours if it goes nuts..... and the Gulf is 24 hours behind the game.
Everyone be safe.
W.
Everyone be safe.
W.
Greg Campbell
EF5
Convection has gone bonkers over the last few hours, with healthy storms completely encircling the now obvious center of rotation. Inflow bands forming.
La-Bomba?
http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goeseast/hurricane2/
La-Bomba?
http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goeseast/hurricane2/
Last edited:
MClarkson
EF5
I agree with mkavulich... while the wind is so large it might not be able to wrap up in time, the potential of this setup is pretty significant.
Can you elaborate on this for me, please? I'm not up to snuff on this. Why would a system's size keep it from intensifying as much in this situation? The land area in its path isn't mountainous nor very dry, and I would think the storm or eye wall would continue to strengthen or maintain until it's just about to make landfall.
mkavulich
EF0
I can't find a source for this, but I've seen it referenced in nhc discussions before, and it just makes physical sense: a larger wind field takes longer to spin up because it has more rotational inertia. Smaller storms are more likely to undergo rapid changes in intensity for this reason.
While I'm here, I have a question for the more experienced forecasters here: The latest (00z) run seems to have initialized the center waaayyy too far to the southwest. Anyone care to speculate as to why, and if that means the forecast tracks are too far west?
RMacDonald
08:15 IR Shot, showing a nice area of cold cloud tops encircling the center of circulation. On satellite, looks like a healthy tropical system.
Jeff Turner
EF0
What about the modls that take it even further west to SE Texas?
Jake Orosi
EF4
I'm in central LA and under the edge of the TS watch issued this morning; however, I'm not anticipating any TS-like conditions unless the forecast again shifts west enough to bring the storm center through this area. Otherwise, expecting fresh breezes and rain, rain, rain.
That said, I've made prudent preparations - water, supplies, and so forth. And while I don't consider my truck prepared enough to be a practical chase vehicle, it should perform perfectly well as a chased vehicle.
That said, I've made prudent preparations - water, supplies, and so forth. And while I don't consider my truck prepared enough to be a practical chase vehicle, it should perform perfectly well as a chased vehicle.
Justin Wiley
EF1
Once again, the media circus is going nuts for a system that may just barely be a hurricane when it impacts land. I can't wait to see some more TWC guys flying around, hanging on for their lives, in the ferocious 35 mph wind gusts. This is Irene II: New Orleans Style.
Matt Tottle
EF4
Lol, when I lived back in NJ, there's a part of town that floods if someone sneezed in the Passaic River.. So there was this one storm that was supposed to be really bad but ended up not.. But the news needed to make it look really bad.. so they set up a shot where the reporter was in a little rowboat and the perspective made it look like the water was pretty deep.
So she's paddling her boat going on about the "massive widespread flooding" when a couple guys walked right through the shot - revealing that the water was a little more than ankle deep.. it was hysterical.
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So she's paddling her boat going on about the "massive widespread flooding" when a couple guys walked right through the shot - revealing that the water was a little more than ankle deep.. it was hysterical.
Sent from my Samsung Galaxy SII using Tapatalk
Stan Rose
EF5
Irene was catastrophic in portions of New England. Even if isaac doesn't rapidly intensify (and it could) if it sits directly over the coast the way some of the models indicate it will for 24 h, dropping 15 inches of rain could be pretty nasty.
Jake Orosi
EF4
The fifth costliest hurricane in US history IIRC, in terms of damage. Killed, what, 50 people in the US?
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