Hurricane Felix

[Rocky Rascovich]

Felix has evolved rapidly into a strong tropical storm and will likely achieve hurricane status by later today... at least thats what I'm expecting, hence the thread header "Hurricane Felix"

This may have some suprises in store despite most models steering this a little bit south of the area that Dean lambasted by about Tues. night/Wed. I'll be watching closely to see if there is any break in the subtropical ridge that may shift the path further north... its definitely not out of the question. Whats interesting is the potential ramifications this may have on the southern plains by next weekend. The GFS is painting a potential flooding scenario by the following weekend from what may be a tropical connection concerning the remnants of Felix AND the tropical system in the Pacific that may aggravate the situation further.

In the shorter term, if models do verify, this may come ashore in southern Belize or Honduras as a Cat 4 storm. I expect this to be a major hurricane within 36 hours of this post.

 

[Mike Davis]

Lest we not forget 1995

I was just researching the Yucatan area because Hurricane Opal in 1995 came to mind. I believe you are making a valid call, as Opal did something we were really not expecting.

 

[MatthewCarman]

Felix has intensified to a CAT 1 hurricane with winds around 70 MPH. We have our first hurricane of September.

 

[Danny Neal]

Felix has intensified to a CAT 1 hurricane with winds around 70 MPH. We have our first hurricane of September.

70 mph is still a tropical storm.

 

[MatthewCarman]

Sorry my mistake winds were sustained around 75 MPH with higher gusts. They are expecting the hurricane to almost take the same path as Dean although they show it a little further south on the track. The Yucatan and Mexico look to be in the path as of right now.

Some think this could become a magor Hurricane. What do you guys think?

 

[Chad Cowan]

Some think this could become a magor Hurricane. What do you guys think?

I think that you need a spell check program... that would be inpressive.

Models are showing the track of Felix brushing the Honduras coast which may weaken it before a probable landfall on the Yucatan.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Now CAT 2 ....

I found a good radar site - that shows the eye ...

http://www.weather.an/product_images/high/cappi.html

 

[Rodney Harper]

Thanks for the radar link Stuart. I am seeing it turning more north of the projected path. I think the tropical storm in the Pacific will steer it more north and east. Just my opinion though. We shall see.

 

[Doug_Kiesling]

Honduras is going to kill it.

While it is cool watching the hurricane setups coming back to life, Felix is doomed to head towards Honduras.

Doomed? One word Mountains. If the latest forecasts verify and the storm passes just off the northern shore of Hounduras, the Mountains and the right angle of the coast should shut it downfast. Coastal flooding in remote areas would be the highlight of this event.

Here is a map of the target area.
http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/americas/honduras.jpg

I found a cheap flight to Belize that leaves tomorrow but I had to ask myself, would it be worth it? And the answer is not really so I'm not going on this one just like I bailed from the Dean trip which was the best thing I could have done since SE Minnesota got destroyed.

Some interesting things to note is the models which are all over the place as to what Felix is going to do. The latest GFS even showed it falling apart. While CMC, GFDL and HWRF have it hitting northern Honduras.

I think I'll wait to see what this next system forming in the Atlantic is going to do before I make any travel plans.

 

[Doug_Kiesling]

Also, info about Hurricane Mitch from 1998

Here is some info for the newbees about hurricanes hitting Central America. This is from Wiki about Hurricane Mitch back in 1998.

Mitch hit the same area as is forecasted for Felix.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Mitch

 

[John Peters]

as of 11AM this morning winds are at 105 mph and pressure is down to 980 mb, probably based on dvorak estimates. As stated by NHC, the satellite presentation is looking pretty impressive, with a well defined eye forming and "hot towers" developing in the eyewall. It seems that the southern eyewall just "closed" based on the recent IR images which will probably lead to additional strengthening throughout the day.

As mentioned also in the recent NHC forecast discussion, GFS has progged amid-upper level trough over the central US 5 days out, and suspects that this feature may begin to erode the ridging pattern to the north of Felix, allowing for some more northerly motion.

 

[MClarkson]

I like the GFS upper level outflow, which is progged to be excellent, and Felix should be a 4/5 before any possible land interaction with Honduras. Felix is moving quite a bit faster than Mitch, which nearly stalled at landfall. I would worry about ravine flooding and mudslides a little if Felix hits or comes close to Honduras, but Felix's speed should prevent anything close to a repeat of Mitch.

 

[Gregg Gallina]

I think what impressed me so far was the very close track to Venezuela with no negative impact... it may be just far enough north (similar to Ivan) but SA usually does a number on TCs... hopefully the very close interaction with the high mtns of Honduras will dry it out. Additionally the eastern mosquito coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua are "good" places for a landfall...or at least much better than a direct hit to central Belize.

 

[HAltschule]

What raised an eyebrow for me this afternoon is the FSU MM5 model from this morning that brough Felix onshore in New Orleans in a couple of days. This track is an outlier right now but....DOH. It could happen given the northward trend over the past 12 hours.

 

[Charles Kuster]

Felix now has mas sustained winds of 125mph and a minimum pressure of 964mb. It looks quite impressive on satellite right now (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200706_sat.html#a_topad). The storm should continue to strengthen due to low shear and warm SST's before it interacts with land.

The track of this storm could be similar to Dean. A ridge will generally keep Felix moving to the west or west northwest. Later in the forecast period there is the potential for the ridge to erode slightly as a trough moves across the U.S. As of now, it looks like Central America (especially Belize and Honduras) and Mexico will be affected by this hurricane.