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Horrible tragedy shows how quickly conditions can change during severe weather

  • Thread starter Thread starter Jordan Hartley
  • Start date Start date

Jordan Hartley

Fast approaching storm bears down on a crowded Indian State Fair concert hosting Sugarland. Video tells it all. Ive been to events when storms like this are bearing down. Sad to see tragedy strike. Video tells it all. Without having seen the radar I can only guess these were straight line winds. Unless a down bursts had just occurred, there should have been some warning to the public to find shelter. I understand people not wanting to give up a great spot for the concert and wanting to ride it out so will not point my finger anymore than I already have.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRkdwrmzYXg&feature=related

Always have respected straight line winds in a severe storm but after this will take the threat more seriously in the future.
 
Indianapolis Concert Deaths

Does anyone know if the storm that produced 70mph winds and blew down the stage at that outdoor concert in Indianapolis carried a severe thunderstorm warning? I've read it resulted in 5 deaths and numerous injuries. One of those outdoor events we cringe about when severe weather impacts.
 
Definitely a sad tragedy. I've heard that the crowd was given warning of impending severe weather 5-10 minutes before the gust hit. So there was enough time, but it should have been mandatory to move people out of the open and into the stands or other buildings - at least away from the stage.
 
Ah, now I'm seeing TWC is reporting the area was under a severe thunderstorm warning. But also read an article where the Governor of Indiana is calling this a "fluke" event that couldn't have been foreseen. Where have we heard this before? It's frustrating enough when the media comes out with a story of J.Q. Public claiming "we had no warning", but when the governor of a state is so mis-informed and irresponsible in his comments, it does nothing but unfairly harm the credibility of our warning system. Would be interested in Mike Smith's commentary on this event.
 
There was a warning, and per radar imagery (and the NWS text itself) the storm was expected around 9:20pm. Fair operations made preparations to evacuate after 9pm if the storm continued its path.

The gust front hit at 8:55pm. There was no damage in any other location than here along the entire path of the storm and front. NWS issued a statement at 8:58pm also saying that the fairgrounds had 22 minutes until the storm hit.

Sounds fluke-ish to me too...
 
I have one of my best friends in Indy. I was speaking to her last night, and she was livid with the powers that be. She felt that the storm was quite intense where she lives (somewhat west of the fairgrounds) and that they should have more than ample time and impetus to evacuate the Fairground stage. I realize this is third person, but having some knowledge of Indy myself, I would agree with her.
 
Mike Johnston said:
Well, I had a feeling Mike Smith would be on top of this event and he is. It doesn't sound like this was a "fluke" as the governor called it. You might want to read Mike's blog about it. Not jumping to conclusions, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if some lawsuits eventually materialize from this event.

http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/
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Go, Mike, go!!!!

Indianapolis gets plenty of nasty weather, this was not a fluke for them.
 
Actually it was a bit of a fluke. Nobody forecast a 70mph gust out of the leading edge winds 10 miles away from the cell. And it only hit that one area, there was no other damage reported with the storm. People from parts of the fairground had no idea anything even happened since this was so isolated.

And Karen - by the time the actual storm line hit - there was nothing bad about it (at least for winds/hail.)
 
rdale said:
Actually it was a bit of a fluke. Nobody forecast a 70mph gust out of the leading edge winds 10 miles away from the cell. And it only hit that one area, there was no other damage reported with the storm. People from parts of the fairground had no idea anything even happened since this was so isolated.

And Karen - by the time the actual storm line hit - there was nothing bad about it (at least for winds/hail.)
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Read Mike Smith's blog. Sounds like he issued a forecast for 60mph winds for the area valid from 8:45pm to 9:25pm. Also, check the storm reports as there was a 70mph wind report in Marion county, IN with a large tree down just a minute before the report at the fairgrounds. Also, severe wind reports from adjacent Hendricks and Hancock counties. So, to say there was no other damage reports with the storm just isn't correct and to say it wasn't forecast isn't correct either.
 
Mike Johnston said:
Sounds like he issued a forecast for 60mph winds for the area valid from 8:45pm to 9:25pm.
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Understood, but that wasn't due to a gust front. Gust front winds don't last 40 minutes. The NWS issued a SVR for 60mph winds from 839pm to 930pm.

Also, check the storm reports as there was a 70mph wind report in Marion county, IN with a large tree down just a minute before the report at the fairgrounds.
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Associated with the SQUALL LINE, not the gust front. This was the only severe report associated with the gust front.

So, to say there was no other damage reports with the storm just isn't correct and to say it wasn't forecast isn't correct either.
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Nobody said that a gust front would cause ONE point of damage well ahead of the line of storms. No other damage occurred with this gust front.
 
Actually, if you read Mike's blog, the fine line on radar representing the gust front was a factor in his team's decision.

What does the duration of the gust front have to do with the duration of the severe thunderstorm warning? The gust front is one factor, or effect, of the severe thunderstorm. The convective cell itself has its own effects also. There's no such thing as a "gust front warning", but certainly a gust front is a possible effect. The warning is associated with the forecast overall effects of the storm.

Does the fact there was only one point report associated with the gust front, as you analyze it, somehow negate the event from being associated with the severe thunderstorm which was warned by the NWS?

The way the Governor put it, it was like some totally random event out of the blue without any possibility of prediction. The fact is, not only was it possible to predict, but it was actually forecast. For that particular point - not necessarily - but these warnings are issued for areas, not points, and anyone within the area has a responsibility to take heed. For the Governor to come out the next morning and call it a "fluke" just wasn't responsible. I don't know the legal relationship between the state of Indiana and the Indiana state fair, but my own impression it was just a pre-emptory effort to shield the organizers from any liability.
 
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Either way you slice it, it was severe warned with enough time to at least move people away from the stage and get most of them indoors.
 
Does the fact there was only one point report associated with the gust front, as you analyze it, somehow negate the event from being associated with the severe thunderstorm which was warned by the NWS?
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It is associated. But the NWS told the fairgrounds (per ISP communications logs) that they wouldn't be impacted from the storm until 915pm so there still is some sort of disconnect. That gust front covered 20+ miles with zero other reports of severe weather. Seems "fluke"ish to me.

I think this discussion should be less about weather and more about temporary buildings. The stage simply wasn't capable of sustaining 50-60mph winds. Had it not been for the collapse, the exact same event would have happened with people not evacuating - and all that would result is some cool YouTube videos of dust & garbage cans blowing around ahead of a concert.

Sometimes bad things happen.
 
Yeah, I imagine the lawsuits will be 90% focused on the structural integrity of the stage, but perhaps with some reference to the decisions of the event organizer as the storm approached. If it turns out true that the decision-maker was a law enforcement officer looking at a radar picture on his cell phone, then I think that will at least raise questions as to the adequacy of the care and planning of the managers of the event. Since the area was severe warned at the time of the incident, there will have to be some real nifty explaining to do. I don't think the Governor did himself any favors by coming out with such a pre-mature judgement.
 
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