Why not new PANASONIC HMC-151?
I'd like to see how the AVCHD codec handles night lightning at those low bitrates before I'd recommend it. The 151 uses a 13mb bitrate, which by HD standards is very low, even despite the fact that it is AVCHD. By comparison, HDV is 25mbps, albeit an inferior codec.
Night lightning video involves subsequent frames going from all-dark to all-light and back, which is very hard for any compression codec to handle without artifacting. Even a good codec is going to choke on lightning if the bitrate is too low - it's a physical limitation of the bitrate.
All types of video compression basically looks for parts of the video that don't change from frame to frame - and then doesn't re-save that 'repetitive' data on each frame. For instance, if you have a shot of a car driving past a mountain backdrop, the only data that is changing in the frame is of the car. The mountain backdrop stays the same, and those pixels do not need to be re-saved on each frame. Hence, a codec can use a low bitrate and still capture a crisp video sequence of such a scene.
With nighttime lightning, again, ALL of the pixels on the entire frame are changing all at once, repeatedly. All dark to all bright in one frame, then back to all dark the next frame. No compression codec can keep up with that without some sort of artifacting if the bitrates are lower. I'd suspect that the 151's 13mbps AVCHD will not do well with night lightning as a result - but again, I'd like to see examples.
When looking for a good night lightning camera, the key is that it must have CCD chips (all CMOS chips suffer from rolling shutter) and the format must use a higher bitrate codec. The XDCAM 35mbps format produces good results, for example. However, all of the sub-$10k XDCAM cameras available (like the EX1 and EX3) have CMOS chips. The only sub-$10,000 cameras I know of now that are both high bitrate and CCD based are the Panasonic models.
Hopefully someone will come out with a newer consumer/prosumer-cost camera that uses CCDs. There are plenty of options in the pro realm, but only if you've got more than 20 grand to spend. CMOS has been taking over like crazy in the prosumer/consumer world, so it may not happen for a while....