Future Focus- How do I pursue my goals?

[Oliver W]

Hello everyone, this is my first time making a "real" post here (or on any forum ever) so I'm a little nervous but that's alright.

Ever since I was 5, I have wanted to pursue a career in meteorology. I used to watch The Weather Channel for fun and I've spent countless hours watching Pecos Hank, Reed Timmer, Skip Talbot, and others of the sort on YouTube and have become fascinated with storms. I know that I want to take on a forecasting position one day. Working for the NWS or SPC is my absolute dream.

As a junior in high school, what steps do I need to be taking to achieve that goal? What can I be researching? Should I invest in anything? What should my college career look like? What should I be doing after college? Any and all advice is appreciated!

 

[JamesCaruso]

Hi Oliver -

There is nothing to be nervous about! I think your post is perfectly fine.

I can’t answer your question, because I am not a meteorologist. I am just responding to put your mind at ease, and also to tell you not to be discouraged if you don’t hear back right away, because (a) the forum in general is not as active in the winter as it is in spring and (b) although there are a lot of meteorologists here, I would venture to say that in my estimation they probably make up a relatively small percentage of forum members - I would guess somewhere around 35%-45%, but that’s just a guess…

Good luck!

 

[Drew Terril]

The big thing is make sure your math is strong. Stronger than what's required even for some forms of engineering. A met major is one of the most math intensive majors out there. I hope you're already taking pre-calc this year so you can talk AP calc your senior year. And I hope you have teachers in those classes who are better able to break things down than mine was. I essentially taught myself Calc my senior year because, while my teacher was one of the smartest people I've ever met, he was not good at breaking down concepts. Once you get to college, your advisor will be able to point you in the right direction as far as classes that you need to take.

If possible, I would try to knock out gen ed and prerequisites at a community college. It'll cost you a fraction of the money and they credits will count the same. Transfer to a 4 year school for your junior and senior years and go from there. My other recommendation is to stay in state if at all possibly for the same reasons I outlined above. There are plenty of mets out there that graduated from schools *other* than Oklahoma, Iowa State, Mississippi State, etc. I know there are a fair number of NWS mets who graduated from IU, for example. With you being in Indiana, if you're able to knock out some of the early stuff at Ivy Tech, then transfer into IU or Ball State, that would save you a ton of money over the long haul and have you in a lot less debt after graduation. IU is definitely less expensive than Purdue and Valpo. Ball State may be less expensive than IU. I'm not sure on that. And I believe Ball State has a Met program as well.

With all that said, I would also temper expectations. While it's certainly possible to get into that segment of the field, meteorology in general is highly competitive. There are far more grads with met degrees than there are met jobs across all sectors. That was true even when I graduated high school nearly two decades ago, and that's a big reason why I decided not pursue that degree path. So with that in mind, networking is key. To be fair, regardless of career field, networking is key. One thing I learned while serving in the Army was to always take advantage of opportunities to meet people in your field (or intended field). Building those relationships as you finish HS and get into college will give you a greater chance of landing a job where you want once you graduate. It's no guarantee by any stretch, but it certainly helps the odds some.

There are also other fields that, for lack of a better term, organizations like NWS/SPC need in order to run. You may find that something like IT may be your ticket in, particularly if you're not as strong in math, but are good with computers and networks. If you get to a point where you realize you can't hang with the meteorology course work, maybe something like IT or GIS will be a way to get your foot in the door.

I know that's a lot to take in, and I'm not a met myself as I mentioned. But a lot of that is advice that carries across several career fields.

 

[JamesCaruso]

The mathematics was the main reason I did not go into meteorology. I got fairly good grades throughout my life, but calculus was the one class I actually failed in high school. I took it again in college and still only got a C+.

In addition to the math, like you @Drew Terril I was pessimistic about job opportunities. If I got one at all, it might be the graveyard shift at an NWS office who-knows-where… And needing a PhD to really do anything.

But that shouldn’t discourage you @Oliver W, you have to go for it if it’s what you want to do!

 

[Warren Faidley]

Just remember there are multiple options at your age! The military has an excellent meteorology program and you can see the world at the same time. It can also help pay for college. But the military is not for everyone. You could also explore other options like a news station weatherman, which would require a broadcast met. degree from somewhere like Mississippi State. This would also require some mathmatics. If you are wanting to be a meteorologist just to chase storms, I would not advise that. There are very few full-time jobs that involve meteorologists chasing weather. Most work in NWS offices or do partime research, but for "genuine" research positions, you would likely need an advanced degree, which is a lot of work, time and expense.

 

[Mike Smith]

If you wish to be a forecaster in a private sector meteorology company, make sure you get plenty of communications. Learn as much not model based forecasting as possible. That is what separates the good forecasters from the great forecasters.

 

[Oliver W]

@Drew Terril

The big thing is make sure your math is strong. Stronger than what's required even for some forms of engineering. A met major is one of the most math intensive majors out there. I hope you're already taking pre-calc this year so you can talk AP calc your senior year. And I hope you have teachers in those classes who are better able to break things down than mine was. I essentially taught myself Calc my senior year because, while my teacher was one of the smartest people I've ever met, he was not good at breaking down concepts. Once you get to college, your advisor will be able to point you in the right direction as far as classes that you need to take.

I like to think I’m somewhat good at math. Unfortunately my old school put me on a weird schedule and my current school couldn’t fit pre-calc in my schedule this year. But I’m taking that and AP stat next year and take Calc in college.

If possible, I would try to knock out gen ed and prerequisites at a community college. It'll cost you a fraction of the money and they credits will count the same. Transfer to a 4 year school for your junior and senior years and go from there. My other recommendation is to stay in state if at all possibly for the same reasons I outlined above. There are plenty of mets out there that graduated from schools *other* than Oklahoma, Iowa State, Mississippi State, etc. I know there are a fair number of NWS mets who graduated from IU, for example. With you being in Indiana, if you're able to knock out some of the early stuff at Ivy Tech, then transfer into IU or Ball State, that would save you a ton of money over the long haul and have you in a lot less debt after graduation. IU is definitely less expensive than Purdue and Valpo. Ball State may be less expensive than IU. I'm not sure on that. And I believe Ball State has a Met program as well.

I applied and qualified for Indiana 21st Century Scholar, which is a full-ride scholarship to any state college in Indiana, so my plan was to go to Ball State all 4 years. Any thoughts?

I know that's a lot to take in, and I'm not a met myself as I mentioned. But a lot of that is advice that carries across several career fields.

Any and all advice is appreciated, I've been lurking here for a while and have seen plenty of high school students looking for advice and then not listening at all. Not my goal here! I try to be very receptive to new ideas. Thank you for your advice!

 

[Oliver W]

@Warren Faidley

Just remember there are multiple options at your age! The military has an excellent meteorology program and you can see the world at the same time. It can also help pay for college. But the military is not for everyone. You could also explore other options like a news station weatherman, which would require a broadcast met. degree from somewhere like Mississippi State. This would also require some mathmatics. If you are wanting to be a meteorologist just to chase storms, I would not advise that. There are very few full-time jobs that involve meteorologists chasing weather. Most work in NWS offices or do partime research, but for "genuine" research positions, you would likely need an advanced degree, which is a lot of work, time and expense.

I have thought about news station weatherman before, Jim Cantore is a personal hero of mine! As far as storm chasing goes it's something I want to try while I'm young but not turn it into a career or anything. I think it would be so cool to go into a research position and work with other people to develop better and more accurate forecasting methods, Tornado prediction can be wishy-washy sometimes so better forecasting for that would be awesome! I want to reach for the stars and achieve my goals but I want to make sure my goals are realistic. It can be kinda discouraging to make sure I'm not oversetting my goals but I try not to let it stop me. Thank you for your advice!

 

[Oliver W]

@Mike Smith

If you wish to be a forecaster in a private sector meteorology company, make sure you get plenty of communications. Learn as much not model based forecasting as possible. That is what separates the good forecasters from the great forecasters.

If not learning about model based forecasting, what should I be learning about? Sorry for all of the questions

 

[Mike Smith]

If not learning about model based forecasting, what should I be learning about? Sorry for all of the questions

Good question and I am happy to answer it.

It is difficult for many to understand, but we made skillful forecasts out to 24-36 hours before the era of computer models. While it is important for meteorologists to learn model-based forecasting, there are times when the models' forecasts are poor or when (this is rare these days) a major communications problem prevents updated model forecasts from getting to meteorologists.

So, it is important to understand both how to interpret the models and to make forecasts using techniques that are independent from them.

True story: I had a meteorologist working for me at WeatherData, Inc. who was young and inexperienced. He wanted to forecast "clear" (he had actually written that word in his first draft). I sat down with him for 45 minutes and explained how the models looked like the forecast was clear but if you looked closer, there was strong warm air advection at 850 mb of nearly saturated air. And, even though the model's QPF was showing little precipitation, it was a situation where there would be elevated thunderstorms with large hail as a slow-moving short wave came in from the west.

He didn't want to believe it and was still resistant to changing the draft forecast. Why? The university he attended essentially taught him that forecast creation was about "putting the model output into words" (my phrasing). I instructed him to change it to: "Thunderstorms likely, possibly severe toward morning.

At 4:45am the next morning, the tornado sirens went off. There were three lines of thunderstorms that went through Wichita between then and noon that caused, as of June, 1992, the 12th worst hailstorm in U.S. history. And, our forecast might have been, "clear tonight."

Before you say, "that is ancient history," the fundamental lesson remains: The only way to know for sure to know the models are reasonable is by having something separate from the models to check them against. With ACCAS filling the sky at 7pm as the LLJ gets cranked up, a forecast of overnight thunderstorms was confirmed independently from the models' output.

 

[Josh Hoover]

Hi Oliver,
I'm an Indiana college student currently working on an Associate's in Data Analytics at Ivy Tech with plans to transfer to Purdue for Meteorology. I would say in terms of finding colleges to attend, go to Ivy Tech first for your GenEds. and then transfer to either Ball State, IU, or Purdue depending on which one is closest to you. I would also suggest, for cost saving, if you're near Terre Haute, and if you think you want to, join the Air National Guard. They have meteorology positions and can get you college credits. On top of the State of Indiana giving 100% free tuition to students serving in the National Guard. Alternatively, if you're not in too much of a hurry to get a met degree in 4 years, you could do what I'm doing and apply for a full-time job at the 4-year university of your choosing. They will pay for all of your college education, minus technology fees. However, the only downside is that, unless you get permission from a department head, and the vice provost of the school, you can only be a part-time student there. and if you do get permission to become a full-time student while working full-time at a university, you will need to pay for half of the tuition. I would also suggest when going to Ivy Tech, that you work towards an Associate's in some form of computer science. Cybersecurity or data analytics for example as they'll definitely help in an age of increasing virtualization as well as provide a backup career plan in the event that there are no job openings for newly graduated Mets.

EDIT: Oh, and don't forget to apply to some of Indiana's grants! The Workforce Ready Grant will pay for your community college expenses if you're going for an in-demand program such as IT.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Stories like the one from @Mike Smith should bring comfort to aspiring meteorologists, because the alternative is to get “modeled” out of a job…

Some good background reading for you Oliver here The Evolving Role of Humans in Weather Prediction and Communication
and here Human Weather Forecasting in an Automation Era, Part 1: Situational Understanding

 

[Drew Terril]

To add to what @Mike Smith said about "not model forecasting," there's a lot of pattern recognition that comes into play. In all fairness, that does take time to pick up (and does result in a number of "busts" when chasing as you gain forecasting experience) but it's definitely something that you can start learning on your own before you ever set foot in a college classroom. Those of us who have been chasing for several years (I'm closing in on two decades myself) will pick up on a lot of nuances, and Mike's example is a perfect one in that regard.

I would also echo Mike's recommendation on working very hard at communicating what you're seeing in a clear, concise manner, regardless of what sector you end up with, or even career field. In any tech related field, you'll be expected to break some pretty technical things down to where an ordinary person can understand it, and it's no different in the met world.

Ball State has a decent met program, but as Josh said and I mentioned in my initial post, going the Ivy Tech route will leave you in a lot less debt, and Ivy Tech has a lot of transfer agreements set up with Ball State/Purdue/IU. That's actually my plan for when I go back to finish up an engineering degree, particularly since my post 9/11 GI Bill will run out before I'm able to complete it (It's only good for 15 years after you leave Active Duty, and I left Active Duty in 2009).

As Warren said, the military is an option as well. Air Force (or Air National Guard/AF Reserve if not going Active) has a number of enlisted positions dealing with weather. I have a close friend who was in one of those roles when he was active duty AF. The other branches generally have phased out their enlisted positions in those areas, unfortunately, and I think the bulk of them even with the Air Force are with the Active component.

No need to apologize for all the questions. The fact that you're asking them shows a good deal of maturity that will help you as you go through college and life.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Good points Drew. Going a bit OT here, but I am very interested in the role of pattern recognition - aka intuition - in decision-making. Malcolm Gladwell’s “Blink” gets into this, and Daniel Kahnemano’s well-known book “Thinking Fast and Slow.” I am also interested in the whole concept of how to best achieve “communicating what you're seeing in a clear, concise manner, regardless of what sector you end up with, or even career field.” I can attest this is important in my corporate financial management career (explaining financial matters to non-financial colleagues) and I enjoy relating and adapting communication tools and approaches that I see in the weather enterprise to the business world. It’s an example of how my hobby sometimes informs my profession. Believe it or not, I actually see some similarities between finance/accounting and meteorology in this regard (e.g., communication and calls to action with regard to forecasts). This is somewhat relevant to someone like Oliver deciding on a career path, because it’s not just the content that’s important, there are also elements suited to one’s personality that may be transferable across domains.