FORECASTS: 1/28/10 - Southern/Central Plains Winter Storm

[Billy Griffin]

No scientific reasoning behind this, but somehow I get the feeling this one will not be much of a snow or sleet maker, and even a minimal threat of icing.

I know, I know; the models say otherwise currently. But the temps are quite warm and the timing of the system may not allow as much cold air return as forecast.

Just a thought. I hope I'm wrong for all those hoping for another fun winter storm.
With sunny days and temps in the 50s/60s, what I'd give for just one good snow up here! (sigh)

 

[Chris Sokol]

Looking at the model runs out of Tulsa on the Sperry-Piltz Ice Accumulation Index...wow.

INDEX (Following is what an index rating can mean)
Level 1 -Some isolated or localized utility interruptions are possible, typically lasting only a few hours. Roads and bridges may become slick and hazardous.
Level 2 -Scattered utility interruptions, typically lasting 12 to 24 hours. Roads and travel conditions may be extremely hazardous due to ice accumulations.

Level 3 – Numerous utility interruptions with some damage to main feeder lines and equipment expected. Tree limb damage is excessive. Outages lasting one to five days.
Level 4 – Prolonged and widespread utility interruptions with extensive damage to main distribution feeder lines and some high voltage transmission lines/structures. Outages lasting up to 10 days.
Level 5 – Catastrophic damage to entire exposed utility systems, including both distribution and transmission networks. Outages could last several weeks in some areas. Shelters needed.

Things could get quite interesting across the state.

 

[Chris Vagasky]

If that model had been run across the entire state...the south OKC metro would probably be in the level 5 as well.

LOTS of generators are showing up at Home Depots tonight and tomorrow...you may want to get one if you don't have one.

 

[Lance Maxwell]

00z NAM is in and it paints a nasty picture for south and east central Oklahoma. Up to nearly 2" of FZRA in spots:

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-FZRN_66HR.gif

 

[Mike Smith]

Add Kansas to Heavy Snow Potential

Moderators: I think we need to add Kansas to the title of this thread.

00Z NAM continues the trend of the 18Z models to move the snow farther north. Looks like the axis of heaviest snow will be from around CSM to END to JLN.

I'm thinking the heavy snow potential extends as far north as U.S. 54 from just east of DDC to ICT to El Dorado to Ft. Scott.

[Mod note: title changed to be less specific to any particular state]

 

[Jay McCoy]

Texas should also be added. The panhandle is looking at a major snow event with areas of 10"-12"+ with ice underneath. Ofcourse it goes without saying I will take 2ft of snow over 2" of ice anyday!!. I have a feeling I-40 is going to be shut down from the NM state line through all of the Tx panhandle and all of Oklahoma by friday afternoon.

MY AES group has already been put on standby and I know our EOC is having a conference call with the MWS and all local agencies tomorrow and will be manned for the next 48hrs or so starting tomorrow.

 

[Jason Boggs]

Yea, it may very well end up being a hum dinger of a storm for us here in the TX Panhandle. Like Jay, I also think I-40 will be shut down throughout the Panhandle. The models are continuing to agree on at least a foot of snow for us here in Amarillo. A cold front coming down along with a perfect track of the low will definitely put us in the prime spot for lots of snow. Time to clean off the still camera and vid camera for some fun in the snow!!!

EDIT: Here is a snowfall algorithm for Amarillo SNOWFALL ALGORITHM

 

[Jason Boggs]

I just watched the wx forecast for the station I chase for. The RPM model run places up to 25 inches of snow in the NE TX Panhandle. I'm not sure about that, but if it really happens, HOLY CRAP!!!

 

[Mike Umscheid]

I'm shifting my target thinking back into the TX Panhandle. The NAM does not jive with the slower ECMWF.. and also the latest GFS run total snow axis is farther northwest. In fact, I could very well see myself in Borger, TX for this event. Either that or Perryton. Slower moving storm, but undergoing occlusion quicker with a mid level dry intrusion surging north... the "trowal" or deformation zone just north of the 700mb is the place to be for sustained moderate heavy snow, and the ECMWF, UKMET, and GFS all suggest the place to be is the northern TX Panhandle for snow with this storm

 

[Jeff Piotrowski]

Tulsa Daily Snowfall Records

Tulsa NWS looking back over the past 110 years.

Tulsa heaviest snowfall ever in January was 12.7" 1979.

Tulsa all time record snowfall was 19.7" in March 1924.

I think we have a good chance at breaking the January record.

Models suggest a chance of breaking the all time record snowfall.

The OOZ models are looking very interesting to say the least.

This storm will break records.

PS: Looking at snow rates per 3HR time period. Suggest that snow will fall in parts of Oklahoma, TX & KS at 2-3â€￾ per hour at times overnight Thursday into Friday morning.

 

[Chris Wilburn]

Thursday evening from say 6pm to Friday morning around 6am should be very interesting in NE OK. The models have a foot of snow falling and most of the storm total snowfall occuring in this 12 hour timeframe. I am just glad I don't live along the I-40 corridor and points just north and south of there. Very significant accumulations of ice possible. The upper level storm is just now coming onshore in southern California. Now that the system is actually onshore forecasts should be pretty solid. It will be interesting to see tomorrow mornings model runs.

Like Jeff mentioned, the snowfall totals are just insane. It will be interesting to see if they verify. The projected snowfalls come close to the record that Jeff posted. It looks like areas along and north of I-44 near Tulsa should be ok with the ice, but areas between I-44 and I-40 south of Tulsa look really sketchy, esp. the closer you get to I-40. I wouldn't be surprised at all to receive 12 inches in NE OK. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if localized areas see a bit more than that where the heaviest bands will occur.

 

[mark plate]

New 12Z NAM is MUCH warmer in eastern Oklahoma, and suggests very little snow will occur in northeast Oklahoma. A significant warm layer aloft is forecast to wrap back northwest across this area Thursday night. Looks like Kansas may see the heavier snows, with ice/sleet being the main threat in NE OK. SE OK into Arkansas may stay too warm for much in the way of ice the way it looks now.

 

[Jeff Piotrowski]

12Z NAM Surprise update!!

Mark is correct the new run is much warmer and slower.

The 32 temp holds along or just south of the I-44 corridor for most of the event from NE-SW OKLA.

This now appears that both Tulsa and OKC metro's will now have more FZR/Sleet.

The area from OKC into SW OK could be major ice storm with storm totals of 3.5" liquid.

The heavy snow looks to stay farther west from TX PHNDL-NE across NW-OK-southern Kansas.

 

[Chris Wilburn]

I noticed this as well. Last nights runs showed hardly any frz rain/sleet here in extreme NE OK (Miami area). Now the models don't show the change over to snow here until just after midnight. Last night the models had the change over to snow at 6pm Thursday. Oh well, looks like less snow here and more sleet/frz rain. Like Jeff mentioned, it looks like southern KS into NW OK into the panhandles will get very signigicant snow. The damage from the frz rain could be quite amazing around the I-40 corridor near OKC and points south and west of there.

 

[Andrew Francis]

Not liking the runs this morning.

Less snow accum, and more sleet and freezing rain... LAME!


Guess we got spoiled with the Christmas Eve storm snow-wise. Can't win them all!