• While Stormtrack has discontinued its hosting of SpotterNetwork support on the forums, keep in mind that support for SpotterNetwork issues is available by emailing [email protected].

FORECASTS: 1/28/10 - Southern/Central Plains Winter Storm

To really get a good idea of whats going to happen, you really need GEMPAK for this one to do some EPV cross-sections and forecast soundings to see the depth of the cold air, subfreezing temps, and depth of RH.

I did my capstone on a very similar type of event that hit North Texas March 6, 2008. I highly recommend reading this short paper by Moore and Lambert: http://tinyurl.com/yekzz3n to get a good understanding of how to forecast winter storms, esp snow
 
rdale said:
It's probably just taking the QPF and multiplying by some number. That's not a valid method...
Click to expand...

Perhaps you should post the URL to the BUFKIT winter weather output you generate - not sure if you have OUN on the list. The technique used is fairly accurate, with the only real downfall being inaccuracies within the model data itself. In other words, if the NAM verified 100%... that algorithm would be almost spot on for the amount of snow expected, or so I've found.

EDIT - I see you've already posted the link. Disregard.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Robert Dewey said:
Perhaps you should post the URL to the BUFKIT winter weather output you generate - not sure if you have OUN on the list. The technique used is fairly accurate, with the only real downfall being inaccuracies within the model data itself. In other words, if the NAM verified 100%... that algorithm would be almost spot on for the amount of snow expected, or so I've found.
Click to expand...

It was pretty spot on the day before the christmas eve storm. Although I do wonder how it differs between ice, snow, and sleet. Hopefully when it says snow depth, it means snow depth.

Wow look at 18z, its could get crazy... snow depths are increasing... Although I bank more on the 0z and 12z runs. We shall see as time passes. This could be epic. Schools in NE Ok are already mention the possibility of cancelations thur and fri. I could definately see this being a mess friday morning.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
New winter storm forecast method

Apparently HPC has some heretofore unknown method of predicting heavy winter precipitation involving invisible forces related to iron. From their heavy snow discussion of Monday afternoon for the Southern Plains...
DAY 3... SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN PLAINS... THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL SHRTWV OVER THE SOUTHWEST DRIFTING EAST ON DAY THREE...WITH A DEEP LAYER CLOSED LOW FORMING...INCREASING THE AMPLITUDE AND AREAL COVERAGE OF UPPER DIVERGENCE. MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOW THE LIKELIHOOD OF A CLOSED 700-500 MB LOW AS IT MIGRATES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS AREA FEW HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS/NAM/CMC. THE MODELS SHOW A STRONG SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS WHICH UNDERCUTS WARM/MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CLOSED LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS RESULTS IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM FOR OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN AR. AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK OF THE 700 MB LOW FIRST AS IT CROSSES THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE AND THEN CONTINUING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OK. DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS TX INTO OK AND SOUTHERN KS WILL AID IN LIFT IN ADDITION TO FERROMAGNETIC FORCING. THE GFS LOOKS SUSPICIOUS WITH ITS QPF BULLSEYE OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... SO HPC FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/GEFS MEAN/SREF MEAN QPF AND THERMAL PROFILES.
Click to expand...
Time sensitive link at:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfhsd.html
 
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-FZRN_84HR.gif

http://grib2.com/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-FZRN_108HR.gif

Boy it really wants to hit the same area hit this same time last year. Other than new powerlines, at least the trees in that area are already toast from the last one. Already tempting myself to chase the damn ice storm side, problem is I'm borderline done with winter now. That and just got done seeing some insane ice accumulations in western IA last week. Definitely will get into the area before the roads are bad this time around. Hmmm.

18z NAM way south, which I could see being right since cold fronts always seem to be speeding up rather than slowing down. That would take any ice storm a bit farther than I'd like to travel for one. http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_p24_084m.gif
Impressive 24hr precip forecast, most of which falls in 18hrs.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
It is starting look more and more a major Ice storm here in Southern Oklahoma . Last time we went 3 weeks with out power and the National park here in town was closed for month's. Mike , you can crash here if needed .
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Dan Robinson
A primer for storm chasers on driving on unpaved roads in the Great Plains
Replies
7
Views
1K
G Diaz
G Diaz
Royce Sheibal
01-11-18: An Unusual January Storm - NE/KS/IA
Replies
0
Views
3K
Royce Sheibal
Royce Sheibal
John Farley
2015-1-30 to 2015-2-2 Coast-to-coast storm
Replies
2
Views
4K
Billy Faletti
Billy Faletti
Dan Robinson
2015-1-1 Reports: Texas/Oklahoma winter storm sequence
Replies
4
Views
5K
Brian G
Brian G
Randy Jennings
Best/Funniest NWS WFO AFDs
Replies
3
Views
6K
Andy Wehrle
Andy Wehrle
Back
Top