FORECASTS: 1/28/10 - Southern/Central Plains Winter Storm

[John J. Holt]

Oklahoma weather is crazy!!! It's sunny 41 degrees with a 6 mph wind currently here in Alva, Okla.... Hmmm with the drastic changes in temps could we see a few tornados on the front of this???

 

[Karen Politte]

Didn't see a whole lot of point in starting another thread for the attendant winter wx risk to portions of AR - but I am also watching this one closely for our first possible decent winter weather event here in central AR. I have been envious of the winter weather in OK this season - and I must admit it does get a little frustrating seeing portions of the Gulf coast get more snow than central AR, as has happened it seems the last couple of winters.

I think yet again we will see a situation where we are willing the cold air to arrive in time before the system exits - as is the case more often than not in these parts. Unfortuantely, once it does arrive, it's shallowness will lend itself to producing some copious icing rather than the pretty white stuff. Still - I would be excited for anything (as long as it doesn't bring our trees down). I'll take sleet, snow, pellets, graupel - anything.

I'm a little bit worried about the progressive slowing of the system for our chances over here, though - looks like the models are slowing the cold air down with each consecutive run - and that risks the potential for the system to 33-degree-rain itself out before the cold stuff gets here. I don't think our topography is helping us with these events, either......we don't really see the "wind rushing down the plain" like some other places, LOL......

We'll watch and wait for now.

KP

 

[Brandon Goforth]

Oklahoma weather is crazy!!! It's sunny 41 degrees with a 6 mph wind currently here in Alva, Okla.... Hmmm with the drastic changes in temps could we see a few tornados on the front of this???

...heh? No. And I'd recommend learning how to forecast severe storms and tornadoes cause there's a little more to it than "drastic changes in temps"...

 

[Brendon Lindsey]

Oklahoma weather is crazy!!! It's sunny 41 degrees with a 6 mph wind currently here in Alva, Okla.... Hmmm with the drastic changes in temps could we see a few tornados on the front of this???

You might want to wait until your dewpoints are in the 50s and temps in the 60s before you even start thinking tornadoes...

 

[Joe Acord]

Massura fails to realize that I agree that a good portion of the area is going to get FZRN. I agree with that, my only disagreement is that both models that I looked at show the cold air moving in aloft late Thursday/early Friday and the storm has not completely exited the region. This should allow for significant snowfall in or around the OKC area. Will Norman get 12 inches of snow, who knows? Hell, I live on the SW side of OKC and got nearly 10-11 inches Xmas Eve since we were near 2-3 heavy bands. If the low can track a little further south than expected, I still see the FZRN here, but for a little less time before heavy snow bands form. You can low ball or high ball snowfall predictions, but if you told me we are getting 6-10 inches in OKC, I would not think you are crazy, but pretty damn close. End.

 

[John J. Holt]

Just wishfull thinking!!! Trying too deal with the SDS... ; )

 

[E Hale]

As much as I love winter weather, Central and Northeastern OK trees are still mangled from the Catastrophic 2007 Ice storm. I really hope this isn't another repeat, although it is looking as though a large swath of 1" of ice should fall somewhere around the 1-40 corridor. 1" may not be as much as some previous icings, but coupled with the wind, it could turn out to be very damaging. Just driving from Tulsa to OKC, one can see the effects that recent ice storms in this part of the state have had on the oak forests.

 

[Lance Maxwell]

Looking at the 18Z Nam, it appears the system has shifted another 50 miles or so north, moving the heaviest snows north of the I-40 corridor and putting pretty much the entire SE 1/2 of Oklahoma in a zone of extremely heavy FZRA.

 

[Jason Bolt]

Looking at the 18Z Nam, it appears the system has shifted another 50 miles or so north, moving the heaviest snows north of the I-40 corridor and putting pretty much the entire SE 1/2 of Oklahoma in a zone of extremely heavy FZRA.

And with that, SGF have added another tier of counties to the Watch, me included. Awesome. Not.

 

[Chris C Sanner]

The snowfall estimates I'm seeing on the 18z NAM seem a 'bit' on the high side to say the least, considering OKC's record 24 hour snowfall is something along the lines of a foot and most estimates are calling for 18"+.

Another fly in the ointment I don't think anyone has brought up is what appears to be a dry slot working it's way in based on the 18z NAM. If that trend continues, there could be a rather sharp gradient in snowfall totals and precip totals period. It's pretty much impossible to pin down the exact impacts yet, but I think OUN isn't *too* crazy on their forecast graphic, perhaps just a bit to the downside given the model QPF numbers.

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

well the 18Z NAM is in and its showing a more progressive dry slot and track further north in the sfc low, which is going to mean more of a sig ice event for areas along and south of the I-44 corridor in Oklahoma.
Additionally sig snowfall is expected along a Hobart-Weatherford-Stillwater line of up to 6" of snow. Decent shear and elevated instability will be in place for thunder-snow in these locations.
Attached are the 18Z NAM model QPF forecast and snow accumulation progs using a 10:1 ratio
Heres the link to the images: http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_72HR.gif
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_72HR.gif

 

[Wesley Luginbyhl]

Going by the 18z NAM, unless I am missing something, a foot if not well more looks like a good possibility for the Enid area. Along the "Hobart-Weatherford-Stillwater" area that Chris mentioned looks to have the heaviest snow totals. The temperature profiles are all below freezing from close to the 48hr mark and onward. Though the temp in 850 to 750mb level is very close to freezing, so a slight change could make all sleet. If the temps are below freezing as forecasted, that would mean 2 inches of precip would fall with all freezing temps. Use whatever ratio you would like, that is a bunch of snow.

The GFS is not far behind either, showing 2 inches of precip and all freezing temps for the 48hr mark and onward as well.

Here is the skew-t for near Enid at the 48hr mark on the 18z NAM - http://www.twisterdata.com/index.ph...nglemap&sounding=y&output=image&archive=false

 

[Jason Bolt]

well the 18Z NAM is in and its showing a more progressive dry slot and track further north in the sfc low, which is going to mean more of a sig ice event for areas along and south of the I-44 corridor in Oklahoma.
Additionally sig snowfall is expected along a Hobart-Weatherford-Stillwater line of up to 6" of snow. Decent shear and elevated instability will be in place for thunder-snow in these locations.
Attached are the 18Z NAM model QPF forecast and snow accumulation progs using a 10:1 ratio

Ok I feel like a moron, but can someone give me a link to view larger images of this? I can only find the 48 hr maps and my eyes aren't what they used to be.

 

[Mike Umscheid]

Heading to Western OK

well my last midnight shift is 10pm tonight, and tomorrow I will make my way down to my "hunker down" position for a few days. I want to get into the most significant snow+wind component of this storm, yet still have the comfort of a decent sized town at a major highway intersection or along the interstate. I had originally been thinking the Pampa-Borger, TX area given the fear of significant warm layer aloft spreading as far northwest as east-central TX Panhandle for the first half of the event. It now appears that this warm layer aloft will be pinched off due to the massive amount of vertical motion and adiabatic cooling involved. The trend now supports more snow than mix all the way down to Erick-Clinton, OK. I still fear the warm layer aloft (I HATE SLEET!!), so I'll be watching that closely, but at this time, if things hold true, I will be reserving a two night's stay in Elk City or Clinton. I am posting on my blog, of course, at http://www.underthemeso.com/blog

My blog posts feed to my Facebook page, too, for those of you on FB.

 

[Chris C Sanner]

Ok I feel like a moron, but can someone give me a link to view larger images of this? I can only find the 48 hr maps and my eyes aren't what they used to be.

http://wxcaster.com/regional_snowfall.htm

There you go Jason