FORECASTS: 1/28/10 - Southern/Central Plains Winter Storm

[Aaron Anderson]

Bufkit Images

Hi All,

Chris posted some Bufkit images in an earlier post and I wanted to let you all know of a Bufkit page I have been working on. It utilizes the new Bufkit command line interface to automatically generate images and upload them to the web. The page uses a Google Map interface to select a station from mostly Oklahoma and then view current profile and overview information for the RUC, NAM, or GFS. It runs every half an hour to make sure the images are up to date.

http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/tools/BufkitCLI/map.html

Aaron

P.S. This page is not for operational use and is being used as a prototype to test the new command line interface and possible applications. This means data may not always be available or up to date.

 

[Greg Blumberg]

I'm not gonna lie Aaron. That's a pretty awesome web application. I'd definitely like to see it expanded to include other parts of BUFKIT. I would use it.

To stick to the topic of the snow storm...I'm currently really liking the 18z NAM solution. Good amount of moisture and no dry areas that could dry slot the system that I see. The 18z GFS, however still has me thinking sleet. It's going to have to get colder in the lower atmosphere if OUN is to see snow. I may wait for the 0z run or just get some sleep and check my forecast tomorrow.

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

Wanted to post a link that my good friend Chris Sanner sent me, its the 06Z Fri NAM forecast sounding for Norman, OK. Note the insane amount of shear all way thru the profile.
http://tinyurl.com/ycrb5mj

 

[Brendon Lindsey]

doomsday...

Wow check out the 0z NAM 2-3 ft of snow predicted now!!! 24-36" How crazy would that be? So I am going to hope for this to happen so I can tell stories to my kids about it.

 

[rdale]

00Z NAM has 9" for OKC - remember that if the models are perfect on timing and location that you aren't getting all snow. Taking the QPF and multiplying by 10 won't work in most situations.

http://66.70.209.226/weather/snow/oun.txt

 

[Chris Vagasky]

00Z NAM has 9" for OKC - remember that if the models are perfect on timing and location that you aren't getting all snow.

http://66.70.209.226/weather/snow/oun.txt

And that makes that all the more worrisome if that is to verify 100%, because that's 9" of snow AFTER almost 2" of FZRA.

 

[mark plate]

Wow check out the 0z NAM 2-3 ft of snow predicted now!!! 24-36" How crazy would that be? So I am going to hope for this to happen so I can tell stories to my kids about it.

The 00Z NAM is not predicting that kind of snow in Oklahoma. The model QPF would support that much snow if the precip were to all fall as snow. However, it is very clear from observing the NAM thermal profiles that this will not be the case at all. A significant warm nose will exist well into Thursday evening, leading to many hours of FZRA and/or PL. Here in Tulsa, if the 00Z NAM verifies exact, we can expect some freezing rain, changing to a lot of sleet, with an eventual changeover to snow, with total snow/sleet accumulations of 6-10 inches possible. The 00Z GFS is not too different...maybe 4-8 instead of 6-10 if it verifies exact. However, expect the models to change several times between now and the event.

 

[MatthewCarman]

I just checked the hazardous weather text and NWS is only forecasting 4-8" of snow for northern Oklahoma with lesser amounts forecasted to the south where central Oklahoma looks to see more of an ice storm because of warmer temperatures.

 

[Joe Acord]

Yep, and by the time the storm rolls through NWS will change their graphics like last time to decrease the amount of snow in northern OK, and introduce the southern part of the state to 8-10 inches. I will listen to my fellow colleagues and wait for the system to make landfall before getting excited. However, a more s-ly track for this system would push the freezing rain threat more s-ward.

 

[mark plate]

Yep, and by the time the storm rolls through NWS will change their graphics like last time to decrease the amount of snow in northern OK, and introduce the southern part of the state to 8-10 inches. I will listen to my fellow colleagues and wait for the system to make landfall before getting excited. However, a more s-ly track for this system would push the freezing rain threat more s-ward.

This storm ain't like the last one, where the models were all over the place, and changing from run to run. This time, there is excellent model agreement and run-to-run consistency, so changes will be relatively minor. The tough part will be the exact areas to see mostly freezing rain, mostly sleet, and mostly snow. Given the normal model bias is to underestimate the strength of the warm nose, expect more freezing rain and sleet than what the models taken verbatim might suggest. There will still be a very heavy snow band though on the north edge of the precip. It is pretty apparent though that widespread heavy snow will be limited to northern Oklahoma, and not affect southern Oklahoma. The exception may be in the southwest part of the state near and just north of the 700 mb low track. You don't need to be a meteorologist in Oklahoma to know what causes freezing rain, sleet, or snow. Trained and experienced meteorologists in Michigan, Canada, and even Germany can forecast a given storm just as well as those of us in Oklahoma.

 

[Joe Acord]

Enjoy the ice storm Southern Oklahoma.

 

[John Massura]

If Acord is predicting snow, I'm all in with the freezing rain scenario.

 

[Darrin Rasberry]

I'm looking at the maps 51-60 hours out of today's 12Z NAM and just going "oh, no" for Central and Western OK. The 850mb temp map is hilarious when viewed after looking at the surface and 925mb charts. I'm not too great at predicting winter weather either, but IIRC that means sleet galore depending on how deep the freezing layer is between 850mb and the surface.

 

[Jason Young]

Enjoy the ice storm Southern Oklahoma.

i think i need a chainsaw . lol

 

[Robert Dewey]

BUFKIT algorithm shows over 2 inches of freezing rain for OUN. Wow.