FL/Southeast U.S. Hurricane or Major Hybrid Coming?

[HAltschule]

Models for the past 7 days have been very persistent in bringing a large and powerful tropical or extratropical system through the Caribbean Sea and into the Gulf of Mexico. This morning's 6z run shows a landfall on/around June 5, 2008 as a powerful cyclone over extreme Southeast Florida (Near Key Largo) and a slow movement to the north affecting Miami, Orlando and Jacksonville, FL with very heavy rains and likely strong winds.

Should be something to watch. In my experience, persistence like this usually leads to actual verification many more times than not.

 

[Mike Davis]

Possible Trop. Disturbance brewing

The NE Florida local Mets. seem to be very much in agreement with you. This early, this far out.. yes, iffy, but certainly a possibility that bears watching.

Good early heads up look.

 

[Blake Michaleski]

Pretty interesting to say the least. The GFS is holding the Atlantic Subtropical ridge strong. The East Pacific Equatorial trough is in good shape and the GFS shows a low pressure area breaking off and crossing Central America into the Caribbean Sea.

Around Day 10 the low is crossing Between Cuba and the Yucatan at or around 1000mb. Latest run is taking it into the Brownsville, TX region at 312 hours..... yes, i know... it's 312 hours out.

 

[Morgan Palmer]

I, too, have been impressed with the persistence on GFS. It has been back and forth on position and timing, but the fact that for a week now, we haven't had it show up one run and gone the next is intriguing. That and the fact that the CMC and Nogaps are on with it. The Canadian is quite impressive with sub 1000 pressures soon after the end of interaction with the Yucatan, then a trek into the eastern Gulf.

Still, yes, we're very far out. Certainly bears close watching.

Also, the upward motion anomaly is favorable through the next 10 days.

 

[J Kinkaid]

Looks like the models might have been on to something

farther S...a Broad
Area Of Low Pres Is Taking Shape Over The Sw Caribbean In The
General Vicinity Of 11n81w But Connected To An Extensive Trough
Which Continues Across Costa Rica Into The Eastern Pacific

 

[Jim Leonard]

We are coming into the time of year when these monsoon systems start persisting across from the eastern pacific into the SW Caribbean. Sometimes a depression or storm will spin off of this feature first in the east pacific then days later in the western Caribbean. This process usually takes many days to organize. The models are usually too fast with the development TC's in this area so we may see this process continue for many days to come. For the next several days it looks like a mid-level ridge will setup across the south and southeast part of the U.S. so any development that does occur in the short term it will move westward untill the ridge retrogrades west later as the models indicate.

 

[HAltschule]

The models seem to be on to something. At 12pm Saturday, satellite loops show a large tropical depression-like low near or over the yucatan peninsula. Lots of convection and great rotation. Will be something to watch!!

 

[Aric Cylkowski]

Say hello to Tropical Storm Arthur, first named system of 2008... right off Belize.

 

[rdale]

I just don't see Arthur as a major Florida hurricane... Call me a doubter of the GFS.

 

[rdale]

This morning's 6z run shows a landfall on/around June 5, 2008 as a powerful cyclone over extreme Southeast Florida (Near Key Largo) and a slow movement to the north affecting Miami, Orlando and Jacksonville, FL with very heavy rains and likely strong winds.

Still skeptical - I just don't see anything remotely close to this happening...

 

[Mike Davis]

Hind site is 20/20

HAltschule makes an observation on May 24th and on June 3rd, RDale is "skeptical" of that observation. Hind site is 20/20 in this business.