FEMA / evacuation policies

[Rob_Davis]

Originally posted by Geoff Boyle
I think there is plenty of blame to go around; and I do agree that the gas situation should have been handled better.

Blame for what? Traffic jams? I just don't get this whole blame game. What's the point? What purpose does it serve other than to intentionally politicize a non-political event? It was the mother of all traffic jams, but everybody got out. So what's the problem? Nobody promised them a smooth and fast ride.

Blaming somebody for 5 million people causing a traffic jam is about as useful as blaming somebody for the hurricane itself. The bottom line is this; there is NO WAY to get 5 million people out of one place on two highways at the same time without a traffic jam! Have you ever been to a professional football or baseball game? Thirty to forty-thousand people causes four solid hours of bumper to bumper traffic for five miles in every direction. Do you really think you can evacuate ANY metropolitan area without it taking a full day or more? You're kidding yourself.

Those who live in hurricane alley KNOW what they are up against when they choose to live there. While I have much compassion for them, I have no bleeding heart sympathy for them having to spend a day in a traffic jam. It's simply a fact of life.

 

[Rob_Davis]

Originally posted by Andrew Geil
I have to wonder how many people slip off the major interstates and onto county highways and byways?

If I was stuck in major metro gridlock, I'd be hoppin' off the interstate with my trusty gazetteer and flying north on country roads.

Apparently, a lot of people had the same idea. The result was that even the backroads were jam packed. I talked to a friend who evacuated Houston headed towards Austin. He used his GPS to navigate the most obscure backroads available, hoping to avoid the traffic. It took him six hours to make it sixty miles to Schulenberg.

Considering it took people 18 to 20 hours to make it the 250 miles to Dallas, I'd say they made considerably better time on I-45 than the people on the backroads did.

I guess you could try to stagger an evacuation. Cars with even number license plates on day 1 and odds on day 2. Or evens go north and odds go west. But I cannot imagine that actually working. There's no way to enforce it. People would not cooperate. People are going to evactuate when and where their lives allow them to. Some of them can't get off work on the proper day to leave. Others simply won't be told what to do, and you can't stop them. There's no way to enforce it.

From every angle I look, I simply see no way short of building three or four new interstate highways through the countryside, to make the evacuation of millions of people work any better when they only have two directional options. People need to understand and accept that when they live on the coast.

 

[Geoff Boyle]

Exactly how do they handle major hurricanes in Canada
Sorry couldn't resist

No one remembers Hurricane Juan? Not the most powerful storm in Canadian history, but I remember amateur videos of hurricane spawned Tornadoes ripping apart entire city centers in NS.

Those who live in hurricane alley KNOW what they are up against when they choose to live there.

That was mostly my point.

 

[David Wolfson]

I'm involved in traffic planning and have participated in several focus workshops regarding large-scale emergency evacuation of a large city. Several principles apply, most of which were apparently not adequately implemented in the case of Rita's landfall.

1. Even with ample warning it's not feasible to implement a complicated, tiered evacuation plan, especially when you are unable to mandate destinations of the evacuees.

2. Maintaining laminar traffic flow on the evacuation routes is of highest priority. Anticipating and pre-positioning incident remediation teams is essential to this. Freeway entrance metering is also essential.

3. The public is best served when evacuation plans recognize and plan for the fact that -- with respect to any particular disaster scenario -- there are people who should evacuate and people who should stay put and not evacuate.

4. The problems implicit in displacing large populations and getting them back to their homes and jobs are greater than the problems in evacuating them. As will shortly be seen on the news, the congestion effects arising from a traffic implosion are much worse than the explosion attendant to evacuation. Hardly anybody has planned for that.

FEMA's National Disaster Response Plan clearly delineates primary responsibility for pre- and post-disaster management and coordination to the DHS when a National Emergency is declared. That was done well in advance of both Katrina and Rita for the affected areas. The large-scale screw-ups are Federal screw-ups.

 

[Rob_Davis]

Originally posted by David Wolfson
The large-scale screw-ups are Federal screw-ups.

Up til this point, it sounded like you were saying there really were no large-scale screw ups. What were they?

 

[David Wolfson]

My comment about screw-ups being mostly Federal responsibility was more intended to apply to the discussion about FEMA in this thread. But with respect to mass evacuations IMO FEMA has the primary responsibility to coordinate, direct, and delegate resources as well.

That's doesn't mean people in FEMA jackets are out there putting out contra-flow cones and driving tow-trucks. But it means a lot more than telling five million people get the hell out of town. Though there was some tiering of the evacuation plan -- a good thing -- a lot of things that could and should have been anticipated and provided for were not IMHO.

 

[guestaroo]

who cares?

Who cares anyway? This storm turned out to be a joke and it cost millions of people money they didn't have. Forecasting should have been better on this one. No excuses. And for those of you dumb enough to chase this thing, ha ha, glad you're out the gas money. Maybe it'll keep you off the road next time.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Re: who cares?

Originally posted by guestaroo
Who cares anyway? This storm turned out to be a joke and it cost millions of people money they didn't have. Forecasting should have been better on this one. No excuses. And for those of you dumb enough to chase this thing, ha ha, glad you're out the gas money. Maybe it'll keep you off the road next time.

Please tell me YOU are joking. I will agree, there are a LOT of people who evacuated that didn't have to, but this isn't the fault of government officials or forecasters. Most (or all?) of Houston was NOT under a mandatory evacuation, so those who chose to leave didn't have to leave -- they chose to spend the money to evacuate. It was obvious from 24hr before landfall that the eye was going to pass east of Houston and Galveston. I can't stand listening to the news and hearing "the storm wasn't as strong as expected" or something along those lines. The NHC forecast and discussion called for continual weakening from the time Rita was a Cat 5 hurricane. Not many expected Rita to hit as a Cat 5. Personally, I though she would restrengthen to Cat 4 status if the inner eye could stabilize more than 12 hours before landfall, but that never happened.

The forecast was pretty darn good. Sure, 72 hours out it wasn't exact, but by Friday morning it was apparent that (barring an unexpected turn) Rita was going to hit somewhere along the LA/TX border.

I don't necessarily fault those who sided on the safe side, but you can't blame officials or forecasts for the folks who left areas that weren't under a mandatory evacuation.

 

[nickgrillo]

Re: who cares?

Originally posted by guestaroo
Who cares anyway? This storm turned out to be a joke and it cost millions of people money they didn't have. Forecasting should have been better on this one. No excuses. And for those of you dumb enough to chase this thing, ha ha, glad you're out the gas money. Maybe it'll keep you off the road next time.

Well, it's obvious your trolling... Due to your comments, I can very much tell you've never chased before and don't know anything about meteorology. I'd suggest cracking a book and learning something about forecasting... Then come back.

 

[Robert Dewey]

....Just walkin' on through.... Trying to avoid the trolls, but I just can't do it...

Seriously, Grillo and Snyder summed that one up pretty good.

Either this guy is messing around, or he's an absolute idiot... I guess he doesn't realize the only joke around here is his stupidity, and the fact that he forgot to pickup a brain before leaving the delivery room...

 

[guestaroo]

what?

Jeez, you guys have to go insulting really quick. Yes, I was joking about the gas money. I did not mean to offend anyone. My hurmor is dry, so I do apologize. What I was parasphrasing was how the media is now saying its all the weather folks fault for not getting the forcast 100 percent perfect. I was just trying to be sarcastic - making fun of the media and how they're putting weather folks down for playing it safe.

I mean, you'd think after what happened in LA, there'd be no questions asked.