ok, this is how it goes down when im ficcin to chase a storm or something like that...
usually, my chase starts a couple days BEFORE the event...i usually go to the SPC website and check the 4-8 day outlook and see if there is even an area out before i do anything...and as always, if there is anything going on here, i update my chasing site...
if i do see that we are in an area where some storms are expected...then i hit the models on the web, UCAR, and COD and earls weather site and i start seeing what is really going on out there...looking at the upper level charts and what not...
well, if its looking good, i usually talk about it a little bit, and give it a day or so...that way, if the models were not agreeing with something...they might iron themselves out...
when im about 2 or 3 days out, and i can see that its looking to be something decent, you know...i write about it or whatever, and start thinking whats gonna happen...as always i stay up on the latest model runs, and see what kind of conditions are going to be present and how its supposed to be looking...if its gonna be limp dick, or if its going to be buck...
i can usually get a good feel a day before it happens...
in my experience with big severe weather events...usually, i look at day 1...for those of you in the south, you know that the big storms usually take day 1 out in the central plains, and then day 2 in the south, and day 3 in the east as the systems eject out...i ALSO LOOK at the winter side of the system, and things like that...cause, if there is a major blizzard going on in the cold sector and a major severe weather outbreak in the warm sector...i know its a GOOD system...
when day 1 rolls around...the first thing i do is check the SPC website to see what kind of RISK we are under...if it looks like its going to be a good day, then i go to the models...
i prefer earl bakers models, cause they are the best out there IMO...i check things like the 0-3KM cape to see how much low level instability the storms are getting, and i check the wind-fields...i check visible satelite images, and **** like that...then, i go outside...and see what things are looking like out doors...
if everything in the first steps works out ok, then i wait for the watches to come out, and i usually wait to see how things go in the watches before i make any moves...i dont chase using any kind of radars or internet or anthing, just a radio, so i gotta sit at the house till the last minute and make a decision based on what im watching, and make a good estimate on how long it will take me to intercept the storm, and how fast im gonna have to drive...
like for example, one of my best calls was that storm on 1-10-08...i seen it was looking good on the radars, and i left before the TORNADO warning was out...i knew how fast it was moving, and where it was headed...and i knew where i needed to be, and what time i needed to be there, so i ended up going with that...and sure enough, i wound up there right when the damn thing come across the highway...tornado warnings, and wall clouds and all that!
it may sound like some bull to some of you guys with all that stuff in your cars, but if you were here and seen what all goes on, and how fast-paced and crazy it gets some times...its crazy man...