That is a frightening prediction. Does anyone know how many people have been rescued from their houses, or the shelters in New Orleans, as well as the approximate number of people who stayed in the city itself? I have a feeling the approximate death toll is being grossly underestimated.
I remember that article when it came out, I bet its getting a lot more play now. I hate to rain on everyone's parade though. People make dire predictions all the time. In newspaper and magazine articles everyday, tv and radio. From meteorologists to sports reporters and everyone in between. Nobody cares though when they don't come true. They get swept under the rug.
That is stunning...it played out almost identical to the prediction. I actually think that this "dire prediction" was about as fact-based as any I've ever heard. I mean, think about it, there have been at least 4 major hurricanes that at least got N.O. a little worried in the past 3 years (before Katrina). Isidore and Lili of 2002, Ivan of last year, and Dennis of this year. To me, it seemed inevitable that N.O. would get it before too long, and indeed they did.
Well, if Katrina had hit NO dead-on, the city would have flooded nearly instantenously, instead of mostly over a day or two (though the 9th Ward part of the city did flood very rapidly while Katrina was making landfall). I would think that >>10,000 deaths had this happened. Instead, it took about 36 hours for most of the city to flood, giving ample time for rescues. FWIW, I can't imagine that the death toll from Katrina in NO will be more than 5,000. I mean 10,000 is a LOT of people. Indeed, the latest reports (based on the 1st sweep of city), indicate a much lower than anticipated death count, which is certainly a good sign.
I'm still very worried about the 9th ward though. I was thinking the same thing, that it did flood very rapidly. Not a flash flood, but it did move houses off foundations. I think people had to move to their attics before they were prepared too.
I was also thinking 10,000 might be high since they weren't taking anybody out. After today's news conference it was clear they really haven't been looking that hard for bodies. They've marked houses with remains, but haven't moved many. Lead story on CNN.com this evening was about one family trapped in their attic. No way to get out. Trapped for 3 days and watched their grandmother die.