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E Pacific: Tropical Storm Norbert

Stuart Robinson

Stuart Robinson

EF5
Joined
Dec 8, 2003
Messages
806
Location
Leicester, England
Norbert is forecast to intensify into a Hurricane and be a CAT2 hurricane at landfall over the middle of the Baja California Sur @ 12 October. This represents a possible intercept – time will tell.
Slightly going off topic – has anyone chased down there? – if so how risky is it from the locals and the police – any advise would be appreciated.
 
The California part of the journey is safe - so long as you stay out of the gang-infested areas. Unless you cannot avoid it; then being in a tank and carrying enough ammo is advised.

Mexico - even Baja - isn't safe unless you are in one of the tourist towns - and have a flight directly to one of these locations. If you don't know the language and don't carry a legal concealed weapon or have a guide that does - expect the worse in any area that isn't in a tourism-protected mode area.

I was born in a border town (El Paso, TX) which are generally speaking - relatively safe - but that isn't anything like being in Mexico proper. The Mexican govt is very corrupt, so the police are no help - but a hindrance and will try to take advantage of any norte-americano if they can. The expression 'blued, screwed, and tatooed' comes to mind. You have been warned. I've also been in Tijuana via San Diego and it was clearly more of the same. You couldn't pay me enough money to go into the non-tourist areas without heavy artillery.

If I am going to chase this storm, I would need to know if its effects would be directly visible in S California; then I would go - too!
That is - I would go as far as the US border...

PM me if you want more specifics if necessary...
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Good day all,

Hurricane John was intercepted neat the tip of the Baja penninsula back in 2006. I did not go, but saw some video of some who did. One was a bulldozer towing people through flooded / muddy roads and charging $100 a pop USD.

Sounds like the dirt roads in Kansas but without the friendly farmers and tractors who help you out of it for free each time ;-(

Corrupt government and shady law enforcement, especially in desperate times (example: a "hurricane") ... That's a big no-no!

Maybe chase something like Aculpulco or something, but not those poor fishing villages father north.

Remember Dean and Jamaica anyone?
 
Immm... thanks for the input - I think that I will stear clear of the Baja - not worth the risk for a CAT2 (at best)

however if it was CAT4 then I would be there in a flash !!
 
cdcollura said:
Remember Dean and Jamaica anyone?
Click to expand...

Yes Chris, I remember it all too well.
http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?p=147479&highlight=hurricane#post147479


As for Mexico, I was considering an intercept but that area of Baja has little infrastructure and it'll be lucky to reach Cat 2. Not worth the time, effort, money and aggrivation. Of course, if I hadn't already intercepted numerous tropical systems this season, my attitude would likely be different.

In terms of the dangers from people/police. I have learned that there are good and bad people in every country and I don't really factor that in when I'm making travel plans, unless there is an extreme risk. I really do need to learn Spanish though. Living in Canada, I don't have much need for it here but it sure could come in handy.

Logistically, I couldn't have realistically chased Norbert anyway since I leave for Kenya & Uzbekistan on Saturday.

George Kourounis
www.stormchaser.ca
 
Of course, now that I've insulted Hurricane Norbert, it has greatly intensified and is currently cat 3 and may reach cat 4! It'll likely weaken before landfall but the surge could be very impressive (and dangerous) in some of the small coastal villages.


I still couldn't go chase it anyway with my pending trip to Africa.
 
OT Chase Plans..

Well It looks like I might try - But I need to look at costings first , a CAT3/4 HAS my attention!. I will give a GO/NO GO in the morning but fingers crossed I will be heading towards Mexico and "Bandit Country".
 
Stuart Robinson said:
OT Chase Plans..

Well It looks like I might try - But I need to look at costings first , a CAT3/4 HAS my attention!. I will give a GO/NO GO in the morning but fingers crossed I will be heading towards Mexico and "Bandit Country".
Click to expand...
Stu.
I know its in the models but the latest ecmwf is real agressive in developing a hurricane in the western Caribbean as soon as the 144hr. timeframe. So far the model brings it just to the southeast of south Florida as intense storm, we'll have to see in future runs to see where this may eventually go, east or west of the southern peninsula. This is the time of year for this region of origin.
 
This cane is looking increasingly impressive and is turning into a annular monster and one thing about a annular storm is they have a tendency to hold onto their strength after they have peaked much longer than your average tropical cyclone so I wouldn't doubt this storm being a strong cat 3 at landfall and if it can survive the hit with the peninsula and the cross over the cool gulf of cali, this could cause serious devastation for a large portion of the mainland and if my memory serves me correct the Chihuahua state needs not the flooding rains.
 
Cat 3 Norbert has taken a NW direction.
TWC posed a scenario where it is possible for S.Cal to be in its path.
Well, if that's the case - I'm going hurricane chasing for the first time!
Usually, they head W out into the central Pacific.
Any further updates on the projected path?
 
Norbert is a very impressive Hurricane right now, Category 4 with winds with maximum sustained winds of 135mph. The eye is almost perfectly circular with some clearing. The models are in almost perfect agreement on the landfall location, besides the GFS but I don't believe that right now. I don't think Norbert will strengthen much more, if at all, since the SSTs only get cooler from here on.
 
Good day,

Anything tropical nearing S Cal will succomb to the effects of cold SST's.

A hybrid storm / TD (remnant low) will be your best bet (if the storm headed that way).
 
Intercept Topic:

I am STILL holding back on this until the 12z model runs come out, 6z GFDL and HWRF show landfall Sat AM as a CAT3. 6z GFS shows the system stalling out to sea :eek:

*if* the 12z Models (come on GFS) do indeed show a CAT3 landfall then I will grab a last minuite flight from London and keep my fingers crossed that the models are right! - high risk high gain on this one!
 
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