Down days affecting risk perception

[ChristofferB]

We had an interesting discussion on our tour the other day about down days causing a risk bias. I know I am unfortunately prone to this: having several down days, bust days and tornado warned cells producing nothing will allow me to alter my risk perception towards being more risk prone.

I know, from a rational point of view, that this is wrong and I am pretty sure this has to do with me being a very in-experienced chaser. I have never really seen the wrath of a tornado, RFD or hail up-close so this of course affects my better judgment as well. But I also assume this psychological effect might affect even experienced chasers as well.

So, I am curious to hear if you get get this "Down day risk bias" as well?

 

[Royce Sheibal]

Might I counter your down day risk bias with what I'll call overconfidence bias. A story might help.

June 4th 2008. I had only been chasing for about three years, but 2008 was a very active season in NEB and I got in a ton of experience that spring. Had just gotten off of work, picked up the wife, and decied to try and grab a promising cell just SW of Ullyses. Found myself a good spot at an intersection just south of town, had a great view of the circulation, but no tor visible. I sat and waited a few moments too long waiting for something to spin up, and it did, about 100 yards to my SW. My wife says "Is that a tornado?" I frankly shout yes, and hit the gas. The storm had cycled and the tor set down a couple miles southeast of where I expected, and I was lazy and overconfident about my positioning. The tor brushed me as I scrammbled to get safe.I rammed into the RFD on a dirt road, barely able to keep my exhaust out of the water. As I pulled south behind the storm, a handful of more careful chasers was videotaping what I believe was rated an F-2 eventually.

Being overconfident because you've hit alot of good storms this year is just as dangerious as overreaching because you've hit none.

 

[Will Campbell]

I'm far from psychology-savvy but I would say this is the same sort of psychological response as gamblers have. Ultimately storm chasing is a game of chance/odds, much like gambling. The longer you are down, the more likely you perceive that you are going to get up.

The key difference is the presence of weather models to help guide or shape your confidence on a particular day, not unlike seeing a blackjack table doing really well and thinking if you sit you too, will do well. But on the weather side there is (slightly) more certainty as numerical models can certainly be more trustworthy than "gut feelings" in most circumstances.

I have been guilty of this, having a extended period of either not being able to chase, or chasing with no reward eventually leading to me overanalyzing or dreamcasting setups which could make me be more prone to chase a day that I may not otherwise. After typing and reading about it, I'd say this is probably a symptom of addiction, or it sure feels like it. For instance this weekend I have really high hopes for even though I know there won't be the best ingredients in place.

I just try to keep myself grounded by reminding myself that it's not the result, but the journey that makes me enjoy chasing mother nature's creations. The new places I find, the crazy conversations with friends on long car rides, and the beautiful offerings of the sky, tornadic or otherwise.

 

[Jeff Duda]

My extent of risk bias shows itself in being willing to chase farther away for exceedingly marginal risks. I don't gauge the risk by the SPC outlook designation, but if I see 45 kts of deep layer shear with 2000 CAPE and sufficient triggering without too much CIN within a few hundred miles of home, I will probably chase it. If I can't find at least 40 kts of shear or it looks pretty likely the cap will hold, I will probably stay home unless its within 100 miles of home. However, during down periods, I may be willing to go an extra 100 miles out even for 35 kts of shear and 2500 CAPE (even if CI is questionable). I don't, however, feel any extra need to get closer to the meso or wall cloud or any tornadoes that develop. My survival instinct remains rather constant, regardless of activity levels.

 

[rdale]

I'm with Jeff... Those "marginal" setups that I'd never go more than 50 miles for might get me going 100-150 miles if it's been a drought (like this year )

 

[Todd Rector]

Agree with Jeff and rdale!
And who hasn't tried to come up with a secret chase formula starting with "If I would travel 100 miles for a 10 percent, and 200 miles for a 25 percent..."

I will definitely travel farther for marginal setups when the season sucks (ask me about my 1660 mile round trip to Colorado last week) but I don't believe my perception of safety is altered (except maybe by lack of sleep). That being said, I think my most careless moment in storm chasing was a few weeks ago near Lincoln Nebraska. I was in the inflow notch North of Beaver Crossing on a tornado warned storm with a dozen or so other chasers. For some reason I sat there too long as a rain wrapped tornado headed directly for me. Conditions changed in the span of 30 seconds and I suddenly notice the other chasers had already taken off. I made an escape to the East just in time as visibility dropped to nothing and winds were high enough I thought I would lose control of my car. Bad scene, but a lesson I won't forget.

 

[Skip Talbot]

Are we talking about risk to personal safety or risk of busting? I think people are giving answers to both.

It's yes to both for me. Some of my closest calls with tornadoes were on days with low tornado probabilities, severe thunderstorm watches, or unwarned storms where my guard was down and I underestimated the storm as a result. I try to be very mindful of this now as I think my tendency to underestimate a storm is one of my most dangerous habits. If I'm storm starved, it also pushes me to play more aggressively or play targets I normally wouldn't otherwise, just trying to get a tornado so I have something to count.

And yes, on a year like this, I'm playing a lot more "high stakes" or "long odds" gambles of chases. I chase about X times a year. I'd love it if they were all 10 hatched setups, but I'm going to start playing a lot of 2 and 5% on quiet years like this one. I'm not out for a tornado on every chase, but enjoy chasing almost as much as catching, so I'm going whether the catching is good or not.

 

[ChristofferB]

I meant the risk of personal safety actually. I guess this bias might be existing also when you know you are chasing on the last day before a major down-period.

Good to meet you down in Texas, Skip, by the way!

 

[joel ewing]

Christoffer, I'm saying this with complete respect I promise, but if you've never "seen the wrath of a tornado, RFD or hail, close up".....what in the world are you doing taking paying passengers into tornado alley as a business???

 

[Donnie Beasley]

Christoffer, I'm saying this with complete respect I promise, but if you've never "seen the wrath of a tornado, RFD or hail, close up".....what in the world are you doing taking paying passengers into tornado alley as a business???

Judging by his posts, I believe he is on a tour, not running one. His original post could have been taken that way though.

 

[ChristofferB]

Yes, I was a passenger, definitely not running one I guess it could have been mistaken the way I wrote, sorry about that.

Edit: It should be noted also that our tour guide did not share my risk bias.

 

[JamesCaruso]

From the perspective of a chase vacationer with just two weeks per year to chase, I need the first two or three chases to "warm up" and "shake the rust off", and then I probably get a little more aggressive after that. If there are three or four down days in a row, I am actually LESS likely to be aggressive because it is almost as if I need to "warm up" all over again, like a pitcher after a long rain delay.

As for perception of busting (I know not Christoffer's original question but it has become part of the discussion), I actually become LESS willing to go far distances for marginal risks after a few days that don't pan out. I guess I end up getting discouraged and become pessimistic that the next setup will produce.

An embarrassing example was El Reno 5/31/13. It had been an active two weeks in which we had absolutely no luck due to a series of misadventures that I won't rehash here (see my post last year in the chase "wall of shame" topic), ending with getting stuck in the mud in north central OK while on a tor-warned supercell on 5/30/13. We were scheduled to fly home on 5/31 but could have extended a day if we absolutely had to, although it would have meant an inconvenient flight out of Wichita at 6AM the following morning in order to be home for a father-son scout outing. Given all of the bad luck we had experienced during the trip, and considering how many supposedly great set-ups get compromised by one or more missing ingredients (such as a couple of days prior to that, on 5/29/13 in the TX PH / western OK), we decided it just wasn't worth changing our travel plans. In the end perhaps I was better off not being part of El Reno but I do look back with some regret on my decision to go home that day.

Jim