Death Ridge

[Joe Zemek]

Originally posted by joel ewing
Fellas....it's only May frickkiin' 15th. Can anybody say....\"Labor day weekend??\"

Dear God! NOOOO!
...
Oh, rain*booow*! You must mean Memorial Day Weekend. Please, Joel, enuf with the scaring!

 

[joel ewing]

Ooops.......I DID mean to say Memorial Day Weekend. Folks.....it would be extremely unusual if a big tornadic episode somewhere west of the Missouri River didn't happen within a day or two either side of Memorial Day.

 

[Cstok]

...could somebody put a quarter in the tornado machine please. Thanks.

 

[Dick McGowan]

Originally posted by Cstok
...could somebody put a quarter in the tornado machine please. Thanks.

I put one in, but the damn machine took my money! The guy is supposed to come out and fix it sometime this week or next.

 

[mikegeukes]

New 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks issued from NCEP today:

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2005

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pred...day/fxus06.html
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pred...ictions/610day/
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pred...ictions/814day/
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pred...0day/500mb.html
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pred...4day/500mb.html

Mike

 

[Dan Robinson]

The latest 10-day GFS and CPC discussion may give us reason for cautious optimism, showing a trough (albeit a weak one) finally swinging down into the SW USA by June 1. I'd like to see it deepen a little AND see moisture return improve before I get too excited. I know better than to place too much faith in long-range models, but right now they're all we've got.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

The latest 10-day GFS and CPC discussion may give us reason for cautious optimism, showing a trough (albeit a weak one) finally swinging down into the SW USA by June 1. I'd like to see it deepen a little AND see moisture return improve before I get too excited. I know better than to place too much faith in long-range models, but right now they're all we've got.

Hey, we had an amazing first week of May in 03, a big end of May in 04...whats to say we can have 2005 be the year of the explosive june?? In a tough year, you just have to keep remaining optomistic and keep at it. Treat every set up like the first...dont let a string of busts or poor chases get to you.

 

[Mike Mezeul II]

I totally agree, June can be surprising. Take a look back at last year, June 9, 10, 12 all had good tornado days. Plus, sure tornadoes may not be as prosperous, but we will still have storms (hopefully) that can produce great structure...and what not. Keep the hope alive! Still some of May left and all of June, keep the fingers crossed!

 

[Ken Johnson]

GFS shows that too

The latest 10-day GFS and CPC discussion may give us reason for cautious optimism, showing a trough (albeit a weak one) finally swinging down into the SW USA by June 1. I'd like to see it deepen a little AND see moisture return improve before I get too excited. I know better than to place too much faith in long-range models, but right now they're all we've got.

GFS hints at this too. Initially, it shows a really nice system, but kind of cuts it off and weakens it as it kicks out. One thing I've noticed with long range and the GFS, especially this year, it will pick up a system, but do a poor job with handleing exactly what happens to it. The weather pattern is funny right now. A lot of blocking. These types of patterns typically break down with big severe weather eppisodes. We'll see, but there is at least something to watach...

 

[Dan Robinson]

[Broken External Image]:http://wvlightning.com/chase2005/photos/may22model.jpg

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pred...iefs/hgtP1.html

I know, they're only models. But looking better.

 

[Amos Magliocco]

This morning's EC picked up on the weakening ridge and inbound trough in the same timeframe as the GFS. I have high hopes for very late May and early June. It seems as if we've been about a month behind for some time now.

Amos

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Originally posted by Amos Magliocco
I have high hopes for very late May and early June. It seems as if we've been about a month behind for some time now.

I can't help but feel the same way ... the bizarre 500mb longwave pattern that has persisted for some time now should hopefully be breaking down soon. I'm thinking that June may end up being a prime chase month this season, as the atmosphere that is currently lagging behind schedule will begin picking up steam again. Amos, though it seems you've already had a great season in comparison to the rest of us saps, I hope you stick it out and stay in the plains, because I think it will really pay off sooner or later.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

I really hope what we're all thinking turns out to be reality. I knew with finishing the senior year, and being short handed at work this spring, my chase ops in May would be limited...and kinda hoped things might hold off til June. This week is going to be the busiest week I've had in a very long time..but after I graduate Sunday afternoon...I'm free to roam.

 

[Amos Magliocco]

Originally posted by Mike Peregrine
Amos, though it seems you've already had a great season in comparison to the rest of us saps, I hope you stick it out and stay in the plains, because I think it will really pay off sooner or later.

Mike, thanks. But I don't want to take too much credit for fortitude--I returned to Indiana on Thursday the 19th and have been here since. I'm ready to go back out and would like to go back out, but after covering 6600 miles in 15 days driving solo, I needed some R&R. Just waiting for the planets to align.

 

[Anthony Silver]

[/quote]Hey, we had an amazing first week of May in 03, a big end of May in 04...whats to say we can have 2005 be the year of the explosive june?? In a tough year, you just have to keep remaining optomistic and keep at it. Treat every set up like the first...dont let a string of busts or poor chases get to you.


I'll have to agree with Andrew on this one. I think June might be our big severe weather month for '05. In some past years, May has proved to be really crappy in terms of severe weather (with the exception of '03 & '04 which proved to be really active). Optimistically speaking, I think everything will occur later this year. I've seen some really awesome severe weather events occur well into July, so don't lose hope quite yet.