Originally posted by Shane Adams
Fabian,
Last year everyone (and I mean everyone) on here was giving up on the season May 1st...all because there was a ridge in place. I guess for a lot of people, a ridge (whenever during the season it appears) signals the end of the entire convective year. I say rubbish. I remember when the consensus was May 8-15 or so was supposed to be \"dead\". Well I got up one of those mornings and saw a string of about 4-5 chases in a row, that nobody had foreseen the previous week.
The thing to remember is, the atmosphere is fluid. Liquid. Juice. And liquids can be very unpredictable. I don't take a model forecast to heart 12 hours out, let alone 12 days. And with as bad as they've been this year (both with prediction and flip-flopping), I'd say any \"doomsday\" forecast will disappear from the charts within a few days. Even the consistent anomolis appearing this year have consistently appeared in the same time frame (meaning the models have been automatically sticking a ridge or trough in there at a certain point, regardless.)
So Fab, my friend, never fear. I have two friends from Ohio coming out May 20-27 as well, and I'm confident we'll have a few decent chase days. Mays just don't no-show. We've yet to have anything substancial (barring May 12) and May always goes nuts sometime during its window of time in each calendar year. Some have said \"look at 2003, the last two weeks were dead.\" Yes they were, but look at what happened the first two weeks that year.
Never fear...