Death Ridge

[Chris Hayes]

Anyone have any idea how long this ridge setting up will last? I'm in Terre Haute, Indiana tonight. I'm on schedule to be in Enid on Sunday. I'm praying this ridge breaks down after this week. I'll be able to chase a little more than a week after this week

 

[mikegeukes]

Latest 6-10 day progs:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pred...y/610day.01.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pred...y/610day.02.gif

Latest 8-14 day progs:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pred...y/814day.01.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pred...y/814day.02.gif

Latest 6-10 and 8-14 day discussions:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pred...day/fxus06.html

Mike

 

[Joe Nield]

This is really starting to have me worried. NCEP seems quite confident in the long range ensembles for the period I had planned to be out, and if they verify, it'll be a big sack of nothing. As busy as I am at work and as much as I'm trying to save up cash, I can't really afford to spend that kind of cash to putter around the plains for nothing for 10 days.

 

[Dan Cook]

:cry:

 

[Gabe Garfield]

Well, I'm still hopeful...it is May 14th, and more than half of May remains. Hopefully, the long-range GFS is wrong...the progs are wholly unclimatological, as this season has been.

Except for a smattering of good chase events (which you really had to be in the right place at the right time to view), this season has been lackluster. I won't be able to chase after June 5th or so (more than likely), so I hope this season gets its act together quickly.

Gabe

 

[Fabian Guerra]

I really don't like what I'm seeing for the last couple weeks in May. I am locked into the time I can take off work to chase (May 20-30) and each run that this dreaded ridge shows up on GFS feels like a knife sticking further in my back. Ok, maybe that sounds a bit dramatic but those of you who are in my boat and only have a limited time to roam the plains freely know exactly what I mean. It would be just my luck that the only time these blasted long range models are on the mark is for the last two weeks of May. :?

Somebody please just tell me anything that sounds promising. If any of you forecasting guru's and/or mets out there read this then please take a second to respond and tell me not to worry so much. Thanks.

Keeping The Faith as Long as I Can,
Fabian

 

[Joe Zemek]

There's nothing to do but wait, and make some potentially tough decisions. Kinda like chasing before actually chasing. My chase partner & I are locked in to our week as well, & I have a plane ticket involved, so I totally understand this situation.

"Good" or even "very good" agreement re: long range model trends is nothing to get stressed about this far out. Think of it this way: what would you do with that time if you *knew* there weren't going to be storms? Take the worst-case scenario, come up with an alternate plan, and you'll feel better than being anxious about the uncontrollable.

 

[RodgerHeckman]

I have the week of may 21-28 scheduled along with a plane ticket and planning to meet other chasers out there during that time. I do have the option of rescheduling my vacation, but at this point, I am still very much set on going that week. Im not too worried about what the models say this far out.

 

[Marcus Opitz]

I rarely put much faith in model trends that go out more than 7 days. There are just too many variables. Even a "less than ideal" setup like the may 12 harper ks event can be very productive..

 

[Shane Adams]

Fabian,

Last year everyone (and I mean everyone) on here was giving up on the season May 1st...all because there was a ridge in place. I guess for a lot of people, a ridge (whenever during the season it appears) signals the end of the entire convective year. I say rubbish. I remember when the consensus was May 8-15 or so was supposed to be "dead". Well I got up one of those mornings and saw a string of about 4-5 chases in a row, that nobody had foreseen the previous week.

The thing to remember is, the atmosphere is fluid. Liquid. Juice. And liquids can be very unpredictable. I don't take a model forecast to heart 12 hours out, let alone 12 days. And with as bad as they've been this year (both with prediction and flip-flopping), I'd say any "doomsday" forecast will disappear from the charts within a few days. Even the consistent anomolis appearing this year have consistently appeared in the same time frame (meaning the models have been automatically sticking a ridge or trough in there at a certain point, regardless.)

So Fab, my friend, never fear. I have two friends from Ohio coming out May 20-27 as well, and I'm confident we'll have a few decent chase days. Mays just don't no-show. We've yet to have anything substancial (barring May 12) and May always goes nuts sometime during its window of time in each calendar year. Some have said "look at 2003, the last two weeks were dead." Yes they were, but look at what happened the first two weeks that year.

Never fear...

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Originally posted by Shane Adams
Fabian,

Last year everyone (and I mean everyone) on here was giving up on the season May 1st...all because there was a ridge in place. I guess for a lot of people, a ridge (whenever during the season it appears) signals the end of the entire convective year. I say rubbish. I remember when the consensus was May 8-15 or so was supposed to be \"dead\". Well I got up one of those mornings and saw a string of about 4-5 chases in a row, that nobody had foreseen the previous week.

The thing to remember is, the atmosphere is fluid. Liquid. Juice. And liquids can be very unpredictable. I don't take a model forecast to heart 12 hours out, let alone 12 days. And with as bad as they've been this year (both with prediction and flip-flopping), I'd say any \"doomsday\" forecast will disappear from the charts within a few days. Even the consistent anomolis appearing this year have consistently appeared in the same time frame (meaning the models have been automatically sticking a ridge or trough in there at a certain point, regardless.)

So Fab, my friend, never fear. I have two friends from Ohio coming out May 20-27 as well, and I'm confident we'll have a few decent chase days. Mays just don't no-show. We've yet to have anything substancial (barring May 12) and May always goes nuts sometime during its window of time in each calendar year. Some have said \"look at 2003, the last two weeks were dead.\" Yes they were, but look at what happened the first two weeks that year.

Never fear...

That was very well put. I think we put way to much into the long term models. I've seen many good set ups show up on the long term, only to have them crap out in the next few days. This can happen in the exact opposite ways. As Shane said...things can appear to be dead, but things can, and will always change.

EDIT: As far as those long term progs....Last year I too, had one of my best chase years...and my area was a total of 3 inches below normal for rainfall during April and May.

 

[Fabian Guerra]

Thanks Shane and the rest of you. I needed to hear that. I'm not gonna stress any more this year about what the models say...I'm done, I'm letting go and going with the flow.

So, here's raising a glass to May!

Fabian

 

[Gabe Garfield]

I agree with Shane...May will have something, at least somewhere. The "death ridge" has *never* set up this early in the season. Even 2003, which basically stopped after May 16th (for the Southern Plains), there were several events in June.

And really, what is the death ridge? The northern plains (if you can chase them), often go crazy (here and there) clear through August. I understand not too many people can chase up there, but if you pick the right days, you can actually see quite a bit after May.

For those still hoping for May, the GFS progs are *always* wrong/very wrong after 10 days. And even out to 7 days, I would be very doubtful.

Gabe

 

[Cstok]

Thanks.. I appreciate the opinions also... I was seriously starting to stress as well.

When the plane tix have been purchased, the rental car reserved, the wife given her blessing, the boss and all at work ok with the vacation time, it ads a little to the anticipation... and stress level somewhat! :wink:

 

[Jeff Lawson]

Well, strong ridging in May doesn't automatically fly in the face of climatology - that is, it can happen, has happened, and will continue to happen from time to time. I can think of several years in the past decade or so in which a good chunk of May was lost to a strong ridge - even otherwise "active" years.

Anyone who expects May to be thirty-one days of wall-to-wall chasing would probably be best off finding a new hobby. Ridging happens. Obviously, anyone unlucky enough to take their vacation during one of these periods of ridging are up the creek, but that's the harsh reality of storm chasing.

With the recent advancements in technology that have, essentially, made storm chasing easier, I worry we're seeing more chasers now who, 1) Treat tornadoes as a given, 2) See bust days as highly unusual, and 3) Expect every season to be one for the record books. Of course, it don't work that way.

So far, something clearly seems "off" with the 2005 season. Too much continental air, poor moisture, blocky pattern...beats me. But, even with the good setups of the past week, there haven't been many chaser-friendly storms. Clearly, we could use a pattern change.

Well, it looks as if a pattern change is on the way...just not the sort we'd like. But, eventually, the ridge will break down, and we'll be out chasing once again. It might be in the Northern Plains by then, but what's new?

And, looking on the bright side, we'll probably be better off should the atmosphere "reset" itself with a ridge at this point than continue the pattern of cold air intrusions that's plagued us the past few weeks. Sometimes, you have to take your medicine if you expect to get any better.