Cyclone Yasi (Coral Sea)

Latest from TCWC Brisbane.

Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.0/6.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 02/1200: 17.6S 146.5E: 045 [085]: 115 [215]: 922
+24: 03/0000: 18.9S 143.2E: 075 [140]: 050 [095]: 976
+36: 03/1200: 20.1S 140.3E: 110 [205]: 030 [055]: 990
+48: 04/0000: 21.2S 137.8E: 140 [260]: 025 [045]: 999
+60: 04/1200: 22.1S 135.8E: 185 [345]: 025 [045]: 998
+72: 05/0000: 23.0S 134.6E: 230 [425]: 025 [045]: 996
REMARKS:
Following a period of rapid intensification overnight to category 5 intensity,
Yasi has possibly steadied in the past 6 hours. Dvorak intensity: Eye pattern
that had been based on W surround [6.0]and OW/W eye [0.5] adjustment has
weakened to an LG surround [5.0] and OW/W [0.5]. Nevertheless time averaged DT
is 6.0 and MET also at 6.0. CI held at 6.5. Max winds estimated at 115 knots
supported by AMSU/SATCON estimates at 125kn [1min], although Willis Island
pressure observations suggest a slightly weaker system.

The intensity is maintained through to landfall, given the environment of low
shear and strong upper level outflow.

Motion remains steady west southwest at 18 knots which should persist through to
landfall.

The combination of being intense, larger than normal [gales extending about
250nm to the south] and the 18 knot motion is enhancing waves/swell and the
storm tide potential. Much depends upon the timing of landfall [high tide is
about 21:00EST] as to the overall tide impact which potentiall is significant.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 02/0700 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
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Looking at the 0630Z satellite shot... and it looks pretty epic. Symetrical, clear eye... also looking very well put together now that it is getting within range of the mainland radars... It has multiple organized spiral bands, a solid eyewall and well defined eye. Still aimed right at Innisfail, with the strong side eyewall maybe aimed just south. Basically the storm looks like what a cat 4 or a 5 should look like. I hope theres a chaser or two there behind a really strong building...
 
Wow-- I'm surprised the intensity estimates are that high! I mean, it looks good, but 135 kt-- yowee.

Some towns to the S of Innisfail are apparently already in the eye. I think the town of Cardwell-- just to the left of the center-- will be raked pretty badly by the max winds.
 
Tropical Cyclone Yasi, CATEGORY 5, will continue to move in a west-southwesterly direction and is expected to cross the coast near Mission Beach close to midnight.

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SEA LEVEL RISE [i.e. storm tide] will occur between Innisfail and Ayr, peaking between Cardwell and Lucinda, as the cyclone approaches, crosses the coast and moves inland.

Higher than normal tides exceeding the high water mark, and damaging waves will continue between Cairns and Proserpine until at least the morning high tide.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts up to 290 km/h are developing between Cairns and Ingham and the adjacent ranges.

Due to the large size of the cyclone, people in the path of the VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are likely to experience these conditions for about 3 to 4 hours.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 125 km/h between Cape Tribulation and Ayr are expected to spread inland overnight.
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http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR193.loop.shtml
 
Cyclone Yasi is hitting the north Queensland town of Tully with full force, with locals already saying the storm is worse than Cyclone Larry which devastated the region in 2006.

Cassowary Coast councillor Ross Sorbello said his house was shaking under the force of winds of up to 290km/h.
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I don't get the readings at Cairns. Highest gust there was "only" 85km/hr.
 
So, in the immediate aftermath of this huge event, two things stand out for me:

1. SSTs really didn't matter much. Blending the JTWC and BoM estimates yields a landfall intensity of 130 kt-- a high-end Cat 4. A really good upper-air pattern allowed this cyclone to steadily strengthen into a very intense system over really lackluster heat content.

2. The modeling was unbelievable. How far out was this exact scenario modeled? We started talking about it on AmericanWx.com well over a week ago, when the Euro showed a large, intense cyclone hitting Queensland around 03 Feb (tomorrow). There was tight agreement between the models as the cyclone formed and approached, so that the precise landfall point-- a little S of Cairns-- was correctly forecast several days ago. Just amazing. Were the models even that spot on with Dean 2007?

It will be interesting to see the aftermath in the morning-- to get a better idea of exactly what happened and how strong the winds were. I'm thinking we'll see some stripped, denuded trees near and just to the left of the landfall point.
 
Early reports don't sound good, as one would expect. Tully, Townsville. Only good news so far is that it hit with high tide receding, so surge was not as bad as it could have been. I'm sure the reports of devastation will pick up when it gets light there.
 
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