Close calls: violent TORs that could have been killers but weren't

[Elaine Spencer]

With all the attention on this year's tragically high tornado death toll and the reasons behind it, I think it might be enlightening to reflect upon instances in the last few decades when individual violent tornadoes or tornado outbreaks COULD have killed many, many people, but didn't, either due to just sheer luck or to good safety response on the part of those affected.

My nominee for "closest close call" of the past decade (or more) is the Roanoke, Ill. tornado of 7/13/2004 -- an F-4 that spun up very quickly in an extremely unstable environment, and which made a direct hit on a factory with 150 people inside.

These pictures, and this article (which I wrote for Associated Content some years ago under a pen name) give you an idea of the destruction it wrought:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ilx/events/jul132004/parsonsgallery.php

http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/869355/the_tornado_near_disaster_in_roanoke.html

In my opinion this storm could easily have killed dozens of people if the factory had not had proper shelter, or if no one had been keeping an eye on the weather so that everyone had time to shelter. The fact that the factory's safety plan was triggered by SVR warnings and not just TOR warnings made a difference too... it got things going several minutes sooner than they otherwise would have.

If you can think of any other examples of close calls, feel free to share them here.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Lambert Airport EF4 this year - before all the deaths happened. Could just as easily have flipped and tossed several loaded airliners with a death toll exceeding Joplin.

If we're going back to 2004, how about Hallam, NE on May 22? IMHO that's the best candiate for an under-rated likely F5 during the E/F5-less period from 5/4/1999 through 5/3/2007 (which makes this year's tally of 5 all the more remarkable), it made a direct hit on a populated area, and the death toll was only 1.

 

[James Hilger]

Nothing lucky about Joplin 5-22-2011 but definatley could have been an absolute "massacre" as the High school could have easily been in session and a few other places like Wal-mart are usually more full than what they were. You would expect alot of casualties no matter what the timeframe considering over 5000 homes were destroyed and it being a EF5 in a very populated area.

 

[Bob Wagner]

12/14/1987 in West Memphis, Arkansas, F3 tornado misses a crowded (about 6,000 people) Southland Greyhound Park by 200 yards.

 

[Jason Foster]

Well...the ONE tornado that was an extreme close call that could have reeked havoc across the country was the LaPlata, Maryland tornado from 2002. Rated an F4, the tornado path was longer than the distance of it's origin to downtown DC. The path length was 5 times the length of Arlington, VA/Washington, DC (Arlington houses many agencies, but are technically part of VA, not part of the Nationals Capital).

The width of the tornado at it's widest (in LaPlata itself) was 1/2 mile wide (650 yards). This would have been enough to take out everything from the Pentagon, White House, Dept. of Commerce/NASA/Agriculture, etc., Supreme Courty, Capital, Republican and Democrat Buildings, FBI, Library of Congress, all the Smithsonian (and other) museums on The Mall (housing some of American's greatest treasures) in addition to hundreds of non-profit organizations, embassies from around the world, lobbyists (well...that might have been a GOOD thing..haha) and so much more. While some measures exist to prevent full looses, the impact would have shut the city down, halted government and organizations around the world..and crippled many news organizations and offices.

LaPlata wasn't without death however, as 5 did loose their life. But the impact, had it been just a little further north, and not in a much more lower population density is still there. It would have been the tornado that would have been felt by almost every single American.

 

[Keith Wilson]

I'll throw the Enterprise, AL EF-4 tornado in 2007 out there as one that could easily have been a lot worse than it was. 7 students did lose their lives at the school, but there were hundreds of students and staff still in the school when it hit. Enterprise had been under several tornado warnings and although they were dismissed, they were not allowed to leave while under a tornado warning and the schools tornado drill was implimented. This kept the tornado from tearing into the parking lot and surrounding roads crowded with buses loaded with students and cars loaded with students, parents, and faculty.
The buses that were staged and waiting for the release of the students were tossed around violently.

 

[Matt Tottle]

I'll say the EF-3's that hit Massachusetts at the beginning of June could've been a lot worse given that they hit moderately populated areas. Four died, but in an area that might see one or two tornadoes per decade, people really were caught off guard. The northeast gets some severe storms, but they rarely go tornadogenic, especially that far north into New England. I can count on one hand the number of tornado warnings we had in the 30 years I lived there.

 

[Tim Supinie]

I'll point out that the Talladega Super Speedway in Alabama has had, relatively speaking, close calls on a race weekend the last two years (4-24-10 and 4-15-11; the one this year was closer). Given that you have tens of thousands of people in trailers with little appreciable shelter, it wouldn't take a violent tornado to cause some serious loss of life there.

 

[Elaine Spencer]

Re close calls with outdoor/high attendance special events: on 8/19/09 an EF 3 tornado hit Williamsville, about 10 mi N of SPI, destroying an antique mall and convienience store along with other buildings and homes. There were no serious injuries.

The kicker: the Illinois State Fair was in progress on the N side of SPI at the time this storm hit. The storm passed within 5-10 miles of the fairgrounds and fairgoers were warned and told to take cover in the permanent buildings. Needless to say, a shift in the storm's track a little further south could have had disastrous consequences.