Chronological history of forecast models

[George Tincher]

I was sitting around last night trying to think of the chronological sequence in which the various commonly used forecast models went into service. Here are the ones I am aware of, along with the years they became operational:

1971 = LFM introduced

1979 = NGM introduced

1981 = GSM (eventually split into the MRF and AVN in 1985)

1993 = ETA introduced

2002 = AVN becomes the GFS

2004/2005? = ETA becomes the NAM

That's the best I can get the dates on the most popular models. I can't remember for sure if the ETA changed names prior to the start of this year or not.

Is there any other forecast models (widely used anyway) that I left off my list?

 

[William Scheftic]

NAM became the name in late-January of this year, this name will stick as announced by Dr. Uccellini at the Ohio Severe Weather Symposium. The WRF will replace the ETA as the model of which the NAM name will be associated with.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Still gonna be a while before I start calling the ETA the NAM!

 

[George Tincher]

OK, now that makes sense. I couldn't figure for the life of me why they would change the ETA's name to NAM being the ETA is gonna get the axe in about a year anyway. But if the ETA goes bye bye (at least as one of the primary models), I can understand the WRF taking the NAM name. That would eliminate the ETA and WRF names from the list.

BTW, I found it impressive that the LFM was in service for 22 years as a primary model before finally being replaced by the ETA.

 

[William Scheftic]

Still gonna be a while before I start calling the ETA the NAM!

Just don't call the NAM the ETA after the end of this year, because as I said you will be dealing with the WRF then not the ETA. You'll get really confused trying to correct for the new NAM's biases if you refer to it as the ETA.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Just don't call the NAM the ETA after the end of this year, because as I said you will be dealing with the WRF then not the ETA. You'll get really confused trying to correct for the new NAM's biases if you refer to it as the ETA.

Humina humina humina...

I can't handle this! :lol: Just leave it alone, man! *LOL*

 

[rdale]

"That would eliminate the ETA and WRF names from the list. "

And the WRF will not change it's name... The version of WRF run at NCEP and released where the Eta is now will be the NAM - but the WRF will still be the WRF model.

- Rob

 

[Dan Cook]

Just don't call the NAM the ETA after the end of this year, because as I said you will be dealing with the WRF then not the ETA. You'll get really confused trying to correct for the new NAM's biases if you refer to it as the ETA.

Humina humina humina...

I can't handle this! :lol: Just leave it alone, man! *LOL*

You will submit. :twisted:

 

[William Scheftic]

"That would eliminate the ETA and WRF names from the list. "

And the WRF will not change it's name... The version of WRF run at NCEP and released where the Eta is now will be the NAM - but the WRF will still be the WRF model.

- Rob

Yes good point, there will still be the WRF, which similar to the MM5 is a community based model and can be run in various forms by many organizations. However, as you said the NCEP will run a version of the WRF for the NAM output.