Chasing Mesoscale Accidents

[S Klein]

I was wondering if anyone else here likes to chase tornadoes that SPC doesn't forecast? My most recent example was by Hugo, CO on October 27th of last year, an incredibly photogenic supercell produced at least one uncondensed tornado in an area SPC had only outlooked for general thunder:


Here are a few other examples:

Falcon, CO 3-29-2019

Stratton, CO 7-26-2022 (although NWS Goodland did mention landspout potential)

Lamar, CO 5-30-2023

Eads, CO 7-19 last year

Maybe it's just me, but I find tornadoes quite relaxing when I don't have to deal with traffic jams and I prefer having unique photos and footage over getting rich, famous, or being part of some social circle. That said, I would like to slightly expand my currently very small network of like-minded people and am hopeful that there's at least someone on this forum that understands the more meditative philosphy we take to chasing.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Of course every chaser loves a good "mesoscale accident," but by their very nature if you chase every day there's a chance of one, that's going to be a lot of miles of seeing not much.

Colorado is a good place for them, what with the landspout setups and the higher terrain allowing for lower dewpoints to do more than they seem capable of for chasers (like me) who are used to the lower Plains and Midwest where you usually need at least mid-50s.

 

[Harlan U]

I was wondering if anyone else here likes to chase tornadoes that SPC doesn't forecast? My most recent example was by Hugo, CO on October 27th of last year, an incredibly photogenic supercell produced at least one uncondensed tornado in an area SPC had only outlooked for general thunder:

I follow your YouTube channel and it's amazing how much you manage to get out there. It seems like any time there's even a remote possibility of a tornado in Colorado, you're there. How do you do it??

I definitely like to chase the low-end Colorado tornado days in June and July when the chaser horde is totally absent. I haven't had anything near the luck you've had with those days, but occasionally I'll see something interesting like a funnel cloud. To me, the best part of chasing is just getting out on the great plains to observe supercells. It seems that you can still experience the "old days" before the chaser horde if you chase on the lower-end days where nobody is out. I frequently find myself as the only chaser on the roads.


Funnel on a tiny supercell over the palmer ridge, 5-24-2025. No SPC tornado report from this one even though some other chasers recorded a ground circulation from a closer vantage point.


Funnel cloud over the Denver metro on 6-15-2025. I don't think many caught this one.

I definitely think chasing can be more of a meditative experience if you step back and try to enjoy the art of chasing itself, or if you have a healthy appreciation for the grassland landscapes of the plains (not for everyone). I'd obviously rather see a tornado than not, but I try to appreciate the quiet days. Storm chasing is a super punishing hobby if you're only satisfied when you get a great photogenic tornado.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Of course every chaser loves a good "mesoscale accident," but by their very nature if you chase every day there's a chance of one, that's going to be a lot of miles of seeing not much.

I feel the same way. Very satisfying when it happens, but there’s a cost vs benefit relationship to every chasing decision. Even on a chase vacation with a limited window of time, I simply don’t have the motivation to drive 3+ hours to a general thunderstorm risk, and I probably wouldn’t drive 4+ hours even to a marginal risk, in the slim hope of a mesoscale accident. Especially if I’m grinding on bonafide setups on the days before or after. I think you have to play the odds and keep probabilities in mind. I’m not sure this is mathematically valid, but my chase partner said something I always keep in mind: If there’s only a 1% chance of a mesoscale accident, ask yourself if you’d be willing to make that drive 100 times to see something amazing. It’s easy to beat yourself up in hindsight when you miss a mesoscale accident, but if you’re realistic about the probabilities you can go easier on yourself. Opening yourself to optionality is important, but all that driving and waiting is a lot more painful than buying a lottery ticket.

I do share the “healthy appreciation for the grassland landscapes of the plains” that Harlan mentioned, but there’s enough of that on the other chase days and I don’t need to experience that every day of a chase vacation. Now, let’s say I lived in Colorado somewhere in the I-25 corridor, I hadn’t been chasing all week, and I’m looking for something to do to unwind on a Saturday. Sure, I might drive a couple hours east and take a flyer on a general thunderstorm risk, just to enjoy some time to myself on the road and out in nature, similar to how others might decide to go fishing, hiking or sailing. But I wouldn’t grind every day like that just in the hopes of catching that one mesoscale accident, and I wouldn’t skip a more likely target to roll the dice on a mesoscale accident.

I’ve always been envious of chasers that can go after everything and catch those rare events. 2025 was quite a year for that, and left me almost resentful that my professional and personal commitments kept me from spending more time out there. But I have to admit, even if I was out there on a late-season chase vacation, I’m not so sure I would have chased all those lower-end setups…

 

[Warren Faidley]

Fantastic post—this has always been one of my favorite topics. I’d estimate that at least 30% of my chases over the years have come from what I call “mesoscale accident” setups. These days, I actively forecast and target those accident or long-shot scenarios partly to stay away from the crowds.

I actually think they seemed more common years ago—not because the atmosphere behaved differently, but because we didn’t have the forecasting tools we rely on today. In a sense, there are two kinds of “mesoscale accidents.” First, the true long-shot, days with high potential but one thing is askew—when something like a rock-solid cap unexpectedly detonates (like my Pampa Twister shot). And second, those low- or no-risk setups where an unforeseen boundary—an errant OFB, for example—suddenly reshapes the environment and unleashes chaos.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

One of my most memorable chases of the last few years was June 29th, 2024 - this was a 0% tornado day along the IL/IN border where I noticed a boundary rich in vorticity cooking in the late June sun. CAMs had hinted at thunderstorm development along this boundary during the late afternoon and evening hours and I decided to go babysit the percolating cumulus field an hour to my north and see what happened.

Wound up chasing a long-lived landspout tornado that was on the ground for nearly 30 minutes, crossing the border from Illinois into Indiana.



This became one of my favorite VLOGs:

Chase summary from that day: SKYDRAMA.NET • Landspout Tornado at Hoopeston, Illinois!

Played a similar game on July 20th, 2025... babysitting another percolating boundary and being rewarded with a less-dramatic, but still "surprise" tornado:



VLOG from that day:

Growing up in the Midwest, figuring out these sneaky little mesoscale accident tornado days are one of the biggest joys (when you're there for it!) and biggest frustrations (when you're not!) in life.

 

[Harlan U]

Now, let’s say I lived in Colorado somewhere in the I-25 corridor, I hadn’t been chasing all week, and I’m looking for something to do to unwind on a Saturday. Sure, I might drive a couple hours east and take a flyer on a general thunderstorm risk, just to enjoy some time to myself on the road and out in nature, similar to how others might decide to go fishing, hiking or sailing.

You're absolutely right about that. Living here affords the privilege of making day-trip chases whenever I have the day off. It's very similar in principle to a short day hike. I think this strategy of chasing affords a much more laid-back experience because you get to pick your battles over the entire summer instead of being forced to chase everything on a 1-week chasecation. You're also not at the mercy of synoptic patterns in the same way that you might be if you took vacation time months in advance.

On a side note, mesoscale days have a lower ceiling in Colorado (The 3 EF2 landspouts that formed on May 18, 2025 near DIA with dewpoints <45 degrees are a great example) so it's a lot easier to catch stuff out here than it would be if I lived in Oklahoma where the dewpoint requirements are less flexible. Colorado also has a long chase season spanning May-August with reasonable chase opportunities sprinkled throughout.

 

[S Klein]

I’ve always been envious of chasers that can go after everything and catch those rare events. 2025 was quite a year for that, and left me almost resentful that my professional and personal commitments kept me from spending more time out there. But I have to admit, even if I was out there on a late-season chase vacation, I’m not so sure I would have chased all those lower-end setups…

As Andrew and Warren have pointed out; it's not about chasing everything, it's about forecasting where a surface boundary will be co-located with convection that can take advantage of it. I rarely chase more than an hour or two from home, and when I forecast a tornado I usually see at least one. I'm admittedly envious of chasers who have the means to travel across multiple states for weeks (or months) at a time, but then I see they all have the same footage of the same storms and talk more than they watch the storms.

Funnel on a tiny supercell over the palmer ridge, 5-24-2025. No SPC tornado report from this one even though some other chasers recorded a ground circulation from a closer vantage point.

Funnel cloud over the Denver metro on 6-15-2025. I don't think many caught this one.

I definitely heard about the one on the Palmer, and that one in Denver looks awesome! SPC doesn't count all of mine either, definitely don't take that personally! If you legitimately want to learn how I forecast tornadoes, go ahead and shoot me a message.

Fantastic post—this has always been one of my favorite topics. I’d estimate that at least 30% of my chases over the years have come from what I call “mesoscale accident” setups. These days, I actively forecast and target those accident or long-shot scenarios partly to stay away from the crowds.

As Colorado has gotten bigger crowds have started bothering me a lot more, and lately it feels like a lot of my nerdy hobbies have been swallowed by "mainstream" culture: video games, superhero comics, and now weather are cool now and I absolutely hate it! I definitely think more chasers catch on to "one thing is askew" days than surface boundaries.

Growing up in the Midwest, figuring out these sneaky little mesoscale accident tornado days are one of the biggest joys (when you're there for it!) and biggest frustrations (when you're not!) in life.

I agree, it feels like you're being rewarded (or punished) for your own forecast. Understanding the local terrain and observing longer-term storm patterns is probably one of the most underrated tools you can use when forecasting such small scale events.

 

[S Klein]

Wound up chasing a long-lived landspout tornado that was on the ground for nearly 30 minutes, crossing the border from Illinois into Indiana.

This became one of my favorite VLOGs:

Chase summary from that day: SKYDRAMA.NET • Landspout Tornado at Hoopeston, Illinois!

That is an absolutely GORGEOUS tornado btw! I think I saw the video on your Youtube channel already, I am subscribed!