Bill Tabor
EF5
As the season is getting underway, and memories of last years convergence problems come to mind I turned my attention to ways to minimize the issues and disruptions due to it. Today in particular may be a tough day for convergence in OK/KS so these tips could really make the difference in your chase IMO. Please consider these.
One interesting / good thing I noticed on Spotternet a couple of the recent storm systems ago near OK, and IA was that as I've often seen in the past in other seasons the vast majority of the chasers target the first storm of the day that goes. Usually they target the first tornado warned cell, but on the OK day when Reed and company were out (I think last week) they were all on the cell Reed was on and not the tornado warned cell to the NE. In fact, on both occasions I noticed that most of the other cells were largely absent of chasers on Spotternetwork. I always rule of thumb take Spotternet chasers and multiply by 10 to get an idea how many chasers, spotters, media / public are on a storm. It's hard to tell the non-Spotternet representation, but I still suspect the other cells were much less utilized by storm observers. Of course this is bad for NWS warning, because we don't have ground truth on all the cells. However it can be good for those of us that really don't want to deal with the crowds.
Here are some tips for all of us to follow to keep convergence annoyances low on storms. (Other throw in their tips if they can think of any):
1) Make your own forecast, at least as best you can. Know why you are going to an area. Be prepared to wait for initiation in your area rather than the initial SPC area.
2) Don't necessarily go to the primary SPC area particularly if it is small. You may miss some good action, on the other hand this may mean playing the dryline rather than the warm front which may mean you get more photogenic cells compared to the warm front.
3) Consider not going after the first storm of the day. Let all the swarms head there first and wait for your storm perhaps very nearby.
4) Same as #3 - don't go after the first tornado warned cell. Let the swarms go there first.
5) Keep your Spotternetwork turned off until you 'go live' on an active cell that you actually may be spotting on. This will keep 'the masses' guessing as to where you and the majority are going and keep convergence from building earlier in the day. It will also help to spread chasers / spotters out for better coverage of storms for NWS ground truth.
6) When you break off on that cell and decide to go to another, if there is a gap between storms you can turn off Spotternetwork until you get on the other cell.
7) Consider NOT going on the cell that Reed Timmer and the 'Storm Chasers' crew is on. I've noticed that wherever Reed is the masses follow!!
8) If a cell is too crowded and over untilized, if possible break off and chase a promising nearby cell not as crowded.
Of course these are only suggestions. If you want to fight with the masses you can ignore all these ideas. Some days there may be only 1 'storm of the day'. It's hard to ignore a strong to violent tornado on a long tracked supercell. In those cases it may be tough for the initial chasers to follow the length anyway, so intercepting with new chasers along the way is likely.
Other ideas to help with the problem on crowded storms (based on personal observations last year):
1) Don't drive too slow when possible below the normal speed limit especially if you have a horde or a vast line of cars behind you. If you want to gawk, then pull off the side of the road far enough - hopefully a side road or parking lot, so that you don't interfere with traffic on the main roads.
2) Try and be polite and courteous. Those chasers on the side roads trying to merge who are about to get run over by the meso want to live too.
3) Pass only when you are NOT on a hill and have a clear view.
4) If people are passing be courteous if they are trying to get back into the traffic / lane. Tap your brakes and let them in.
5) Be VERY aware of the environment and the risk level. If you have a possible rain wrapped circulation approaching and there is a long convergence line of cars everyone needs to speed up and get the heck back ahead of it. Be aware those behind you may not be in the clear yet. Alternative is to turn off and 180 and let the circulation pass you.
6) When you pull off the road, pull FAR off the road. As far as safely possible without getting stuck, etc. That will help prevent traffic from slowing down because they don't know what you are going to do (such as open a door, etc).
7) Don't wander blindly out into the road ignorant of the traffic about to run you over while looking at the sky.
8) Don't set up tripods on the roads!
9) Don't park where you block the road.
10) Try and be courteous..if you have a small japanese 2wd passenger car on mud roads and a 4x4 with giant mud tires is behind try and let them pass. Don't get stuck doing this though.
11) Be aware of the road network and storm position / movement (and consider a near future storm hard right turn) whenever you commit to a position or path of travel. As we have seen last year certain dynamic storm motion particularly with fast moving cells and limited road options will cause the tornado to pass directly OVER you.
That's off the top of my head. Others?
One interesting / good thing I noticed on Spotternet a couple of the recent storm systems ago near OK, and IA was that as I've often seen in the past in other seasons the vast majority of the chasers target the first storm of the day that goes. Usually they target the first tornado warned cell, but on the OK day when Reed and company were out (I think last week) they were all on the cell Reed was on and not the tornado warned cell to the NE. In fact, on both occasions I noticed that most of the other cells were largely absent of chasers on Spotternetwork. I always rule of thumb take Spotternet chasers and multiply by 10 to get an idea how many chasers, spotters, media / public are on a storm. It's hard to tell the non-Spotternet representation, but I still suspect the other cells were much less utilized by storm observers. Of course this is bad for NWS warning, because we don't have ground truth on all the cells. However it can be good for those of us that really don't want to deal with the crowds.
Here are some tips for all of us to follow to keep convergence annoyances low on storms. (Other throw in their tips if they can think of any):
1) Make your own forecast, at least as best you can. Know why you are going to an area. Be prepared to wait for initiation in your area rather than the initial SPC area.
2) Don't necessarily go to the primary SPC area particularly if it is small. You may miss some good action, on the other hand this may mean playing the dryline rather than the warm front which may mean you get more photogenic cells compared to the warm front.
3) Consider not going after the first storm of the day. Let all the swarms head there first and wait for your storm perhaps very nearby.
4) Same as #3 - don't go after the first tornado warned cell. Let the swarms go there first.
5) Keep your Spotternetwork turned off until you 'go live' on an active cell that you actually may be spotting on. This will keep 'the masses' guessing as to where you and the majority are going and keep convergence from building earlier in the day. It will also help to spread chasers / spotters out for better coverage of storms for NWS ground truth.
6) When you break off on that cell and decide to go to another, if there is a gap between storms you can turn off Spotternetwork until you get on the other cell.
7) Consider NOT going on the cell that Reed Timmer and the 'Storm Chasers' crew is on. I've noticed that wherever Reed is the masses follow!!
8) If a cell is too crowded and over untilized, if possible break off and chase a promising nearby cell not as crowded.
Of course these are only suggestions. If you want to fight with the masses you can ignore all these ideas. Some days there may be only 1 'storm of the day'. It's hard to ignore a strong to violent tornado on a long tracked supercell. In those cases it may be tough for the initial chasers to follow the length anyway, so intercepting with new chasers along the way is likely.
Other ideas to help with the problem on crowded storms (based on personal observations last year):
1) Don't drive too slow when possible below the normal speed limit especially if you have a horde or a vast line of cars behind you. If you want to gawk, then pull off the side of the road far enough - hopefully a side road or parking lot, so that you don't interfere with traffic on the main roads.
2) Try and be polite and courteous. Those chasers on the side roads trying to merge who are about to get run over by the meso want to live too.
3) Pass only when you are NOT on a hill and have a clear view.
4) If people are passing be courteous if they are trying to get back into the traffic / lane. Tap your brakes and let them in.
5) Be VERY aware of the environment and the risk level. If you have a possible rain wrapped circulation approaching and there is a long convergence line of cars everyone needs to speed up and get the heck back ahead of it. Be aware those behind you may not be in the clear yet. Alternative is to turn off and 180 and let the circulation pass you.
6) When you pull off the road, pull FAR off the road. As far as safely possible without getting stuck, etc. That will help prevent traffic from slowing down because they don't know what you are going to do (such as open a door, etc).
7) Don't wander blindly out into the road ignorant of the traffic about to run you over while looking at the sky.
8) Don't set up tripods on the roads!
9) Don't park where you block the road.
10) Try and be courteous..if you have a small japanese 2wd passenger car on mud roads and a 4x4 with giant mud tires is behind try and let them pass. Don't get stuck doing this though.
11) Be aware of the road network and storm position / movement (and consider a near future storm hard right turn) whenever you commit to a position or path of travel. As we have seen last year certain dynamic storm motion particularly with fast moving cells and limited road options will cause the tornado to pass directly OVER you.
That's off the top of my head. Others?
