Chase trips - are you as flexible as you can be?

[Alex Elmore]

I am very fortunate that my wife is also a meteorologist and is passionate about storms and chasing. More importantly, in our 6 years of chasing together, we've never had any major disagreements in terms of target area, storm choice, or chasing strategy when on a storm. If a difference of opinions does arise, we've always been able to maturely logic through it and come to an agreement. We have teamed up numerous times with others to go chasing, but it is becoming less and less of an occurrence as time goes on; mostly due to a lot of the points already touched on in this thread. There are those who have chased very little, if at all, who have expressed interest in going with us. We've made it perfectly clear that they need to be prepared for lots of driving and that we may need to leave at a moment's notice. They usually state that it shouldn't be an issue...until the time comes to go and they're either a no show/no call or had to do something that honestly could have waited (meaningless chores, duties, etc.). And this is for local chases, e.g., those where we just stray a couple hours from home and make it back before it gets too late. We don't even bother taking anyone (experienced chaser or not) along with us on our chasecations or chases where we'll be out for a couple days. Living out of a vehicle and hotels for days at a time can be strenuous. I don't want to have to worry about entertaining or taking care of someone when things get boring or they get tired of being out there (which is why I'll never be in charge of a tour ). This usually isn't an issue with those who have chasing experience, but there's been enough trouble in the past with differing opinions, questionable forecasting, and unsafe driving that it doesn't matter how much experience they have; multi-day trips with others are off the table. If I'm going to miss a storm in my own backyard or hundreds of miles away from home after spending so much time and money preparing to chase, it's going to be because my wife and I messed something up, not because a guest or partner did.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Reading these last few posts on compatibility of chase partners, I realize how lucky I am to have found a perfect match in temperament, risk tolerance, motivation, safety, etc. Of course we’re not 100% in synch on everything 100% of the time, but we are pretty darn close. He’s not big on forecasting, so I don’t get much resistance with target area selection. We tend to agree on most decisions in the field -cell selection, navigation, when to stay on a storm vs when to call it quits, etc. And we are usually of the same mind as to whether it is worse driving a certain distance for a marginal/conditional risk; some chasers will go anywhere for the most minor opportunities, but we do not and we make similar cost/benefit assessments. There have been times when we had different safety tolerances - one of us wanting to get closer, the other wanting to be more cautious - that actually tends to vary from situation to situation, it’s not that one of us is always inclined in one direction or the other. But it seems that we always end up counterbalancing each other. We have similar financial tolerances as well, in terms of how much we are willing to pay for hotels and restaurants. This is a guy that lives across the country from me, I only see him on chase vacations, and barely even talk or text with him throughout the year. Yet somehow we’re able to spend two weeks straight together and have a great time. The only issue is that he’s a little inflexible about deviating from his required number of hours sleep (not a factor on most days though) and seems to need shorter stints behind the wheel. But other than that it’s great chasing with him. The ironic thing is, I met him when I was going on chase tours back in 1996-1998, and I met two other people then also; the two others, and I, never thought this guy would last chasing, but he ended up being the only one of our group of four that continued on all this time.

I really don’t like chasing alone. It’s so much more satisfying to share the experience with a friend and be able to talk about it afterwards, whether the chase was successful or a failure. Driving so many hours alone is just excruciatingly boring, not to mention unsafe because there are times I get very tired behind the wheel and need a break. And it’s unsafe to try to do so much in general, navigating, watching the sky, radar, etc.

 

[Ethan Schisler]

Hello everyone!

This is a topic I can relate to. As Dan mentioned above most long time chasers have had to use the “excuse” of either family properties or job priorities. Myself included. I missed the Dodge City day in 2016 because I opted to work at a company project after being asked. Yes I felt horrible afterwards but I just chalk it up to life. We all make decisions that could have gone better. Otherwise the only other decisions I have to consider is school during the early spring (which I’ll be done in a few semesters, woooo!!!), or if I’m severely sleep deprived....I’ve only called off one chase because of that. I guess what I’m getting at is we have all had situations that simply don’t allow us to get out and chase storms. It happens, it’s life. I know we would all love to be out there for every setup but as mentioned on another thread, I’ve learned to become content with what I DO see.

Another issue for me recently and it’s probably not entirely related to this thread is anxiety following 2 severe car crashes I’ve been in (neither my fault). Also dealing with some residual pain as well, which is another factor I have to consider. Even in my mid 20s I have a lot of health factors that play into my life and I’ll be frank, it sucks.

It’s easy for me to get over the anxiety' if IM the one driving the vehicle but being in the vehicle with friends or other chase partners, I become extremely anxious almost to the point of being physically ill. It’s somrthing I’ve been dealing with the last few years and I’m not sure how to go forward with it. If anyone has anything on this and would like to help me I’d appreciate hearing it! Sorry this has been on my mind a lot and I thought this might be the proper place to post it. Have a good one!

 

[Devin Pitts]

My actual chasecations I have to schedule well in advance as it's incredibly difficult for me to take multiple days off with little notice. That said, work is at least flexible enough for me to take 2-3 days in a row depending on what's going on at the time(which is what allowed me to chase the first week of May and nab Tescott this year). One-offs are easy to do with little to no notice, but I have to take an extra PTO day just to cover the drive to and from alone for Plains trips as I live in Central IL.

I've gotten quite used to chasing solo now though and I don't know if I can chase with a partner anymore. Along with being able to save money just sleeping in my car rather than paying for hotels, being able to leave when I want to, be where I want to, and position how I want to is extremely crucial to me now.

 

[Jeff House]

Devin I do like flexibility chasing alone. Experienced chasers can almost justify it, in that we know how to avoid weather trouble. However increasingly I'm with Ethan on the driving safety. Other drivers are just horrible!

I might chase Dixie alone. Sounds ironic at first, awful terrain alone? Well, my biggest safety issue is other drivers not the weather. Dixie is less crowded. South population is more dense, but without the chaser herds traffic is lighter.

The Plains I usually have one or more partners. Friends are still in Wichita plus a former KS coworker also lives in Tenn. We can roll out to the Plains. We generally mesh well, I guess because we learned to really forecast at the same Company.

 

[Drew Terril]

Very good points about chase partner compatibility. There are only a few people who I actually want with me. Much of that has to do with risk management. I'm not one to feel comfortable getting close, so there are a lot of people who would hate chasing with me. I figure after a decade in the army I tempted fate long enough, so I choose not to tempt it further.

Even on a relatively short trip, personalities can clash and make it miserable to everyone. That's something I learned in the trucking industry.

The last reason I typically chase alone is I'm very instinctive when in actual chase mode. The night before I'm very analytical in how I target, etc., but once storms go up I've learned not to ignore my gut. More than once I ignored my instincts to stick with conventional wisdom and got burned. A lot of chasers are too analytical even in chase mode to tolerate my snap decision-making so it's just easier to go alone, especially since I prefer to be in my own vehicle.


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[JamesCaruso]

Being flexible worked out well for me this year. I ended up staying pretty much within the original “window” I had set aside, but was able to avoid going out *too* early and having to jerk around for nothing while missing family and work stuff back home. Got to see my daughters’ play, spent one day at home with the family on Memorial Day weekend, and am now going back in time for another family event on Tuesday, which I was prepared to miss if necessary for chasing but clearly it’s not. So it was a short trip, but at least we were there for the good days of 5/27-5/29 and 6/1 (although they did not all work out good for us, but that was mostly our own fault except on 6/1) and did not waste a lot of time or money on either side of that stretch.

Looking forward to the rest of this week - since I was scheduled to be off anyway, I arranged with my boss to work a reduced schedule this week, allowing me to avoid missing too much work while still enjoying some time off, a flexible schedule, and the chance to gradually transition back to real life before hitting it hard next week.

 

[Jeff House]

Possibly I erred the other direction. I sat out a couple set-ups for marginal family events FEs. My rule is go sit-out chasing only for major FEs. This year I had 2-3 marginal FEs at the same time as marginal set-ups. Those are hard. Major FEs are easy, no chase. Major set-ups are easy against marginal FEs; chase. Marginal vs Marginal is 2018, and I so far have not taken chase vacation. It appears unlikely now.

No August eclipse to save the year. Time to book the 2019 total solar eclipse in South America!

 

[JamesCaruso]

The 6/6/18 Laramie tornado is another lesson that flexibility is great, but sometimes it’s better to just stick to a plan. You’ve got to just be out there and not try to be too “cute” with scheduling. It’s like they say with investing, don’t try to time the market or you’ll miss all the biggest increases or get burnt by the drops. In this case, I left the Plains too early (Monday 6/4) and regret it. Over the weekend of 6/3, I thought 6/6 looked good, maybe even having some pattern similarities to 5/27, but I didn’t feel like enduring two or three more down days until then. Plus the SPC and Cheyenne discussions didn’t look that excited anyway, particularly by the time Monday morning rolled around. Having a family event back home on 6/5, and my chase partner needing to get home as well, also influenced me not to stay. Now I somewhat regret it, although realistically what are the odds I would have been at Laramie anyway, when it wasn’t even in the 2% area and fooled a lot of chasers?

It is yet another lesson though, about the importance of just being out there. These events are extremely rare and lots can go wrong with the atmosphere, a chaser’s forecast, or a chaser’s field decisions. In my opinion, there is far more often downside than upside. But one thing is certain, and that is we have ZERO probability of seeing it if we’re at home. I have to be more willing to put in the time and effort. I say that now but I know I’ll end up making the same type of decision again - whether it be to delay a trip, go home early, avoid driving too far for a marginal risk, etc. (And I’ll continue to feel I’m in the “wrong” spot if I’m not inside the SPC’s risk area...) But I told my chase partner we should at least try to keep events like Laramie in mind next time we have decisions to make, and if one of us is talking about going home early or not chasing, the other one of us should play devil’s advocate and bring up considerations exactly such as Laramie. We should be more willing to head out even if the pattern doesn’t look great, as we sort of did this year, but then we probably gave up too soon.

If we had taken a full two week trip from 5/27 through today, and were more successful, we could theoretically have seen photogenic tornados on four different days (5/27 WY, 5/28 CO, 5/29 DDC, 6/6 Laramie), even in this terrible year, and I don’t think I can say that about too many other chase vacations in my 20+ years. Only the last half of May 2013 comes to mind, but probably not many others...

I think overall I need to say to myself, I am out there to chase, it’s only a lousy two weeks, and not allow myself to get easily bored or sucked back in by work and family demands the minute the weather goes into a lull. Work is an easy one because if there’s no weather I could just work remotely, there is really no reason to rush back, I work remotely more than half the time anyway. Major family events or crises are one thing, but minor stuff should be able to wait and as the kids do more and more stuff, I (and they) simply have to accept that I can’t be at every single thing. I mean I’m really glad I saw my girls’ concert on 6/5 but that Laramie tornado could have been more of a once in a lifetime event than any single thing with the kids. Of course there’s no way to say I would definitely have seen it, so it’s a false choice in some regard and that makes it somewhat easier to deal with missing it...

 

[Dan Robinson]

As tempting as it is to do otherwise, I'd be hesitant to change long-term chase strategies based on events like Laramie and Simla. They are exceptions that won't happen in 95% of seasons. And I can't even be confident that I would have targeted correctly on a day like that, as most chasers who were out there didn't (including many experienced long-timers). It's a visceral reaction in the immediate aftermath of one of these to stray from the fundamentals, but if you choose the upslope targets more often, chances are they will cost you great events like the Dodge Citys and Benningtons in "normal" years. Not that Dodge City was normal, but if you favor Colorado/northern Plains/June too much you run the chance of missing those more classic dryline events.

As a "classic dryline system"-only chaser, I know I'm likely going to miss all of the Campos and Laramies as a result. I'm OK with that, because it means I'm going to get the Dodge Citys, Benningtons, Hill Citys, Mulvanes during the setups that are more reliable/consistent performers year after year.

 

[Jeff House]

Time for another investing metaphor. I'd say just follow your own rules. DEN/CYS chasers should probably get after upslope in the back yard. I prefer true DL systems but with a slow moving trough. Lead-up days offer more chances, which means a greater overall chance of success on the trip.

Wyoming action this year is like the stock that got away. Changing rules based in it is like chasing stocks. However, WY does back up one valid rule. Get out there! Staying home offers near zero chance.

Also my rules call for outflow boundaries. I would have missed Ensign, KS but I'm not changing my own rules. Again, if your own rules call for chasing upslope, do not change. It is kind of like value and growth investing. Both are valid methods, but they have very different rule books.

 

[Todd Lemery]

A footnote to what Dan said. There’s no way in hell I would have made the Laramie call. I’m pretty average in the forecasting department and the dynamics of that day would never have even crossed my mind. Kudos to those of you who nailed it. If I had been out chasing that day, I wouldn’t have. I’m pretty confident that if that same scenario popped up 5-10 years from now I would miss it again

 

[Quincy Vagell]

Another thought came to mind...

It's usually not a good idea to book a hotel more than 6-12 hours in advance, unless you have a flight and it becomes necessary.

The reason being that chase targets can change drastically, even in the short term. The last thing you want is to get stuck at a hotel that's out of range or have to cancel and still get charged.

I've rarely found issues with hotels being completely booked while chasing. Exceptions can be made for holiday weekends, especially near cities and tourist destinations.

 

[Ethan Lang]

Because of me being a poor college student I have started just putting parts of every pay check into my savings that is on a direct transfer with my checking. This way I can transfer money in and go chasing at a moments notice. Technology really is a nice thing.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Another thought came to mind...

It's usually not a good idea to book a hotel more than 6-12 hours in advance, unless you have a flight and it becomes necessary.

The reason being that chase targets can change drastically, even in the short term. The last thing you want is to get stuck at a hotel that's out of range or have to cancel and still get charged.

I've rarely found issues with hotels being completely booked while chasing. Exceptions can be made for holiday weekends, especially near cities and tourist destinations.

Reminds me of one of a string of bad decisions on my 2013 chase trip. It was Memorial Day Weekend so I booked a room in the morning (think it was Sunday) in Hays KS. Ended up in south central Nebraska. Under a clear blue sky at 6pm, I decided to bail since we had a long drive back to Hays. Missed the gorgeous isolated LP that went up maybe an hour or so later. Can’t remember the exact location off the top of my head, but I’m sure some of you guys know the storm I am talking about. Saw it on RadarScope on my iPad while eating dinner back in Hays. Knew I had made a mistake, but didn’t quite know the magnitude of it until I saw pictures the next morning. Maybe I still wouldn’t have waited around long enough if I didn’t have the room in Hays, but I might have gotten a room somewhere in the area and would have been able to come back out into the field if I was keeping an eye on radar.