Chase Case Guidelines:

[Danny Neal]

I know different people have different styles of running one.... what I want to discuss is what YOU want to see in a chase case. Let's name the basic and the advanced things you may want to see in a chase case. I enjoy making them up so you can expect me to do quite a few this winter.

I try to always include:
*bi-hourly surface data
*hourly radar and satellite
*real time warnings/watches/SPC products
*12z and 0z upper air data

Is there any feature you would like to see added to the chase cases? Not just for me but for anyone who wants to do one. Maybe we can sticky this for future reference.

 

[Bob Hartig]

Danny, first let me thank you for getting this winter's chase cases off to a great start. There's no better way to make good use of the off season than sharpening one's forecasting skills, and I really appreciate your stepping up to the plate to make it happen.

You're doing just great as is, but since you've asked, it would be great if you could include water vapor imagery in the mix; and, if you can get it, SRV radar. Neither of these items are crucial for these cases, just helpful, particularly SRV.

 

[David Wolfson]

I like the added realism when you have to determine your starting location the night before with 00Z data along with perhaps 24hr 850, 500, and 250 NAM levels.

 

[Danny Neal]

Excellent idea. I realized I did that after the fact. I may try to hint at something.... where I find archived runs and do up to a week in advance, I am not sure if this is entirely possible yet but I want to try to make this as realistic as possible.

Bob: I can try to dig up some water vapor or infrared maps. The SRV may be difficult but I will see what I can do!

 

[Dann Cianca]

I would like to see definite times given to the data as opposed to ranges of times. I think ranges are too ambiguous, especially when we have to plot out our exact courses. Timing is everything and the decision-making process can be held up by ambiguity.

You could do a 21Z update and have it look like this...

surface obs at 2108Z

tornado warning 2110Z

radar at 2115Z

sat at 2120Z

severe warning 2121Z

etc.

 

[Patrick Martin]

Danny, I'll resonate what others have already said, and say thanks for the time and effort you put into the chase case(s). I always appreciate these fun exercises.

For me, prior to the morning of the event, I like the 0z info already discussed, perhaps some (but not all) language from the SPC day 2 outlook from the morning before could be appropriate if it does not give to much away, although sometimes less information is best for these as I think as it can help to keep the date an unknown until well into the event. The essential information is the upper air/surface data at 0z and 12z along with associated radar and satellite.

Once the event gets going having the surface obs and satellite/radar is pretty essential. I agree with Dann that having the times match up as close as possible vs a range is better.

 

[Kevin Crawmer]

I like getting some mesoscale data like CAPE, Lapse Rates, etc....but honestly, I think the way it is is pretty darn good and will make me a better chaser with having less. I say keep it pretty much the same.

 

[Danny Neal]

I agree with the exact times, something I will implement in the next installment. I sketched out a layout on scratch paper this morning about how I could group this and keep it flowing.

Thank you for the feed back all, I hope I can make these as fun but challenging as possible!

 

[Robert Dewey]

...perhaps some (but not all) language from the SPC day 2 outlook from the morning before could be appropriate if it does not give to much away, although sometimes less information is best for these as I think as it can help to keep the date an unknown until well into the event.

You'd have to be cautious with textual data. It's pretty easy to quote into Google and possibly see the date.

 

[Danny Neal]

You'd have to be cautious with textual data. It's pretty easy to quote into Google and possibly see the date.

Yeah, I have thought about this, a couple of times I will replace words but make sure I use " " to show it is my language. I usually tend to stray away from the SPC since it won't make you a better chaser. Usually after the forecasting for the event is done, then I start implementing the SPC text.

 

[Dann Cianca]

And Danny, thanks for starting this up again. I hope I didn't sound rude above. I appreciate the work you're putting into it!

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Danny, first let me thank you for getting this winter's chase cases off to a great start. There's no better way to make good use of the off season than sharpening one's forecasting skills, and I really appreciate your stepping up to the plate to make it happen.

You're doing just great as is, but since you've asked, it would be great if you could include water vapor imagery in the mix; and, if you can get it, SRV radar. Neither of these items are crucial for these cases, just helpful, particularly SRV.

That's a great idea but it is also an additional work for the poster.

Thanks a lot for what you're doing Danny, it makes you forget your SDS

 

[Patrick Martin]

You'd have to be cautious with textual data. It's pretty easy to quote into Google and possibly see the date.

I had not thought of that. I'm fine without text.