Matt Gingery
0Z PRE CHASE DAY DATA
UPPER AIR
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SOUNDINGS
AMARILLO: http://i45.tinypic.com/358w36b.gif
DODGE CITY: http://i48.tinypic.com/30vdhkz.gif
MIDLAND: http://i47.tinypic.com/339pzsl.gif
OKLAHOMA CITY: http://i47.tinypic.com/2uoqd1g.gif
RAPID CITY: http://i46.tinypic.com/2ai07l1.jpg
TOPEKA: http://i50.tinypic.com/2e5m68k.jpg
WIND PROFILER: http://i50.tinypic.com/mjakb8.gif
SURFACE PLOTS
MIDWEST: http://i48.tinypic.com/2gt9oig.gif
S PLAINS: http://i47.tinypic.com/347d4xy.gif
UPPER MIDWEST: http://i45.tinypic.com/b87qbq.gif
0Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE . SRN
STREAM CUT-OFF LOW OVER NRN BAJA WILL BEGIN TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE
SONORAN DESERT THROUGH SATURDAY AS A WEAK NRN STREAM IMPULSE STREAKS
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...WRN PARTS OF A WAVY FRONT
SITUATED ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND CNTRL PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN
NWD AS A WARM FRONT IN KS/NEB. A NEW FRONT ASSOCD WITH
THE NRN STREAM WAVE WILL SETTLE SEWD ACROSS THE DAKS AND NWRN NEB BY
LATE FRI EVENING.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD...HEIGHT
FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL ACT TO MAINTAIN A
MOIST SELY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO W TX AND SRN NM. DEW POINTS WELL INTO
THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEG F WILL BE COMMON BENEATH STEEP MID-
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. BASED ON SATL...THE PRIMARY SUB-TROPICAL
WARM CONVEYOR SHOULD BE LOCATED E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE
DAY AND LIKELY NOT HAMPER INSOLATION. AS A RESULT...BY
AFTN...MLCAPES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1200-1700 J/KG OVER SERN NM AND
MOST OF W TX.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SPREADING A 60-70 KT H5 JET STREAK ALONG
ERN FLANKS OF THE UPPER LOW EWD TO ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER 18-21Z.
FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET WILL ENHANCE
THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND RESULT IN AN UPSWING IN TSTMS OVER MUCH OF
NM DURING THE MORNING. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER-BASED WEST
OF THE DIVIDE WITH ATTENDANT LARGE HAIL THREAT. FARTHER E WITHIN
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE/HEAT AXES...VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED OVER W TX...SCNTRL-ECNTRL NM AND SWRN TX BY
EARLY-MID AFTN. THESE STORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP/MOVE EWD INTO THE TX
PNHDL AND THE REMAINDER OF W TX DURING THE LATE AFTN.
THE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN BACKING AS THE UPPER LOW EDGES
EWD...SUPPORTING NUMEROUS STORMS THAT MAY FAVOR LINEAR SEGMENTS.
BUT...VERTICAL SHEAR OF 50+ KTS WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SUPERCELLS.
FORECAST HODOGRAPHS MOSTLY SUPPORT A SPLITTING SUPERCELL
ENVIRONMENT...BUT ANY DEVIANT RIGHT MOVERS COULD PRODUCE
TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY ALONG BOUNDARIES. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL
WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH HIGH WIND GUSTS. THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE
REPORTS COULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD AS STORMS CONTINUALLY DEVELOP
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN/BOUNDARIES AND TRAVEL NEWD.
...CNTRL PLAINS...
A SEPARATE AREA OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF KS AND NEB LATE TOMORROW AFTN/NIGHT. HIGHER PWAT AIR MASS...NOW
RESIDENT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WILL SURGE NWD AHEAD OF THE NRN
STREAM IMPULSE...THEN WWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO NERN CO. HIGH
BASED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN CO NEWD
ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME
STRONGER AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE INCREASING SLY LLJ DURING THE EVE
AND INTO STRONGER INSTABILITY. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE
TSTMS WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW AFT/EVENING...DEVELOPING EWD ALONG/N OF THE
RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN KS AND CNTRL/SRN NEB. MUCAPES OF
1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOA 40 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.
WAYFARING MAP:http://www.wayfaring.com/maps/create/
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