Chances for a White Christmas??

[Dustin Wilcox]

Is it ever to early to look ahead at the chances for a white Christmas?? Its not when you have the trusty GFS . I can't remember the last time we had a good snow storm on Christmas here in E NE. I wish Christmas was a lot closer as it would not only mean classes would be done for the Semester but there would actually be a chance of this Verifying.

I'm betting it will be 50 with nothing but blue skies across the Plains. Check these images in 360hrs and see just how accurate they are!!

 

[Shane Adams]

Hell, I can't remember the last time we had a real Winter anywhere I've lived since about 1990. I just miss seasons, Holidays are of no consequence to me.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

This is a great thread. I think we should keep this thread running and observe the process of a model slowly converging on reality.

I looked at tonight's GFS run for 384h (6 pm Christmas Eve) and it does indicate a low pressure system passing through but nothing suggesting winter weather (except for IA/MN/WI/IL maybe). If this past few months has been any indication we'll probably be 90/65 with fair weather cumulus. I don't think we've had a real Christmas since... let me think... 2006 no, 2005 no, 2004 no, 2003 no, 2002 no, 2001... well 2001 and 2000 had nothing going on on Christmas per se but the days following it were realllly interesting. 1999 no, 1998 no, 1997 I don't remember, 1996 hell no, 1995 I wasn't in the US, 1994 ... gah, 1983. Now THAT was a Christmas.

SLP, 850 mb temps, 12 h precip

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Maybe you guys need to move north?

I think I'd prefer your December weather to this "hey, check it out my car is driving sideways" weather we're getting in the midwest.

 

[Joel Wright]

Got about 4" on the ground now, but the chance of that being around till Christmas without some supplementing snows is small.

The pattern has been pretty active for the last few weeks, so you would think we are due for a down period.

It will be interesting to see how many times the forecast above changes over the next few weeks.

 

[Charles Kuster]

Leadville technically always has a white Christmas. It does not always snow on the day, but there is always snow on the ground. This year is probably the closest it has ever been. I went home for Thanksgiving and there was no snow on the ground! No one could remember when this had happened before. However, Leadville has gotten 36" of snow in the past 9 days so there will be snow on the ground when I go back for Christmas. Hope all those who want winter weather on Christmas see it!

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

GFS hasn't deviated too much from its previous solution yet. Has a system hammering an area that currently needs a break.

 

[Jeff Miller]

Probabilities for a white Christmas - at least you can guess what the odds are :

 

[Jeff Smith]

How about an ice covered Christmas........aargh!

 

[Craig Maire II]

It's a pretty good bet that we will have a white Christmas here...

 

[Joel Wright]

Well, we've had snow on the ground now for a week and a half. About 3" deep underneath the sheet of glaze as of now.

Still almost two weeks to go till Christmas, so there's a good chance this will melt before then. Snow usually melts pretty fast around here in December. January and early Feb is when we usually see the snow stick around the longest.

Honestly, it won't bother me a bit if this all melts by then. I've had my fill of snow and ice for now. It's funny, I love watching the snowstorms and icestorms come in and do their thing, but the second it's over I'm wishing it was warmer again. Kind of weird how that works lol.

 

[mark plate]

We had a big snowstorm 2 days before Christmas here in Tulsa in 2002, and the snow was still all on the ground Christmas Day...very unusual for here. In 2000, we still had a little snow on the gound from a prior storm, and we had a mini ice storm on Christmas Day...an ice storm that was much much worse just to our south. I'm heading to the Green Bay area this year over Christmas...given their current snowpack and cold weather expected over the next week...a white Christmas is pretty much guaranteed up there.