CAT3+ Cape Verdi Hurricane to form soon

[Stuart Robinson]

Surprised that there has been no mention of this??
It is late August (bang on time) and most Global models are in agrement and are adiment that a hurricane will form down by the Cape virdi islands and track NNW, model forcasts then suggest that this will transform into a Majour CAT3+– don’t discount this as the shear does seem to be quite relaxed so who know?
Models show this storm to then recurve out to sea with out being a threat to land.
*HOWEVER* I have seen this many times before I would not be surprised by a more south track at this time of year.
GFS link - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2010081906&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

 

[Jim Bishop]

I'm sure a tropical storm will develop and intensify slowly over the weekend into early next week. But there's a ton of dry air covering the central Atlantic, along with some patchy African dust, so it might be an uphill battle to get this thing beyond a minimal hurricane.

But, I see what you're saying..all global models are quite enthusiastic to bring this system to major 'cane status. If things play out just right, we could have a sizeable hurricane by mid or late next week passing north of the Windward Islands, heading northwest, out to sea.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

NHC have declared Invest 95L for this area...

Here is the text...

2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD

 

[Stuart Robinson]

TD 6 forms... Hurricane in 48 hrs time...

48HR VT 23/1800Z 14.4N 41.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 17.5N 47.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 21.0N 52.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 26/1800Z 24.5N 55.5W 95 KT

 

[Jim Bishop]

Well, Danielle came to near category 3 status, then quickly weakened to a minimal hurricane. The dry air has done it's dirty work, but that was some impressive rapid strengthening overnight before the dry air got entrained into the center. Quite an interesting situation there for a while. It's amazing what good tropical organization over warm waters can do in a matter of hours.

 

[Miriam Lawrence]

NHC have declared Invest 95L for this area...

Here is the text...

2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD

Stuart, I've been trying to find info on Invests on the NHC site but I seem to be missing it. Can you point me to the location on the site where you found this info? Thanks!

 

[Zach Young]

The blurbs for Invests are the text from the Tropical Weather Outlook. It's also the same as the text when you mouse over the map on the main NHC site.

 

[Miriam Lawrence]

The blurbs for Invests are the text from the Tropical Weather Outlook. It's also the same as the text when you mouse over the map on the main NHC site.

Ah, ok -- thanks, Zach. I read those all the time. I just wondered where to find the number of the Invest.