Jason Persoff
EF3
Intense, late winter, volatile set-up for the Plains again this weekend.
A potent upper level system is moving over the SW CONUS with several embedded disturbances threatening to impact the CO front range, and then later in the weekend into C KS. What's noteworthy is the evolution of the system at the 700mb and sfc levels. The H7 forecast on the WRF shows a strong low pressure area over the Palmer Divide later today with intensifying NE winds wrapping about the circulation. The broadscale low should pump mid-level moisture into an area of intense cold sfc temps. A sfc low will also form (nearly stacked) with winds out of the north up to 20kt or more during the late evening tonight--a set-up that spells high snow, high wind, high windchill, and blizzard conditions.
Most of the snow from the most recent snowstorm has had an opportunity for partial melting, but given limited warm temps over the past few days, it will not take much in the way of a sfc wind to kickstart horrific driving conditions, particularly from LIC to HYS as the storm evolves.
Unfortunately for central KS, as the low pressure intensifies and pushes east into the state, modest sfc dewpoints (into the 30s) could enhance snowfall rates and further accumulation.
All of this spells accumulation too far east for the Colorado Rky Mtns, sadly. Snowpack remains still well-below average. Great news for the winter wheat crop, though.
A potent upper level system is moving over the SW CONUS with several embedded disturbances threatening to impact the CO front range, and then later in the weekend into C KS. What's noteworthy is the evolution of the system at the 700mb and sfc levels. The H7 forecast on the WRF shows a strong low pressure area over the Palmer Divide later today with intensifying NE winds wrapping about the circulation. The broadscale low should pump mid-level moisture into an area of intense cold sfc temps. A sfc low will also form (nearly stacked) with winds out of the north up to 20kt or more during the late evening tonight--a set-up that spells high snow, high wind, high windchill, and blizzard conditions.
Most of the snow from the most recent snowstorm has had an opportunity for partial melting, but given limited warm temps over the past few days, it will not take much in the way of a sfc wind to kickstart horrific driving conditions, particularly from LIC to HYS as the storm evolves.
Unfortunately for central KS, as the low pressure intensifies and pushes east into the state, modest sfc dewpoints (into the 30s) could enhance snowfall rates and further accumulation.
All of this spells accumulation too far east for the Colorado Rky Mtns, sadly. Snowpack remains still well-below average. Great news for the winter wheat crop, though.
