Big Storm next week?

[Dan Cook]

Davenport mentions a "significant storm system" next week. Looking at models it might just be rain though.

Might be something to look at.

 

[Gabe Garfield]

Judging from the latest GFS (00 UTC run), it might actually be a possibility...I'm actually starting to get slightly optimistic. GFS brings in one heckuva nice shortwave trough (although the jet "energy" is not in the entrance region of the trough) with even a slight negative tilt sometime around the middle of next week. As has been pointed out before and can't be stressed enough, the models will change their solutions (and may do so quite dramatically). However, OU's spring break begins tomorrow, so I'm game for anything, provided there is game to be had.

Gabe

 

[Joel Wright]

There's definitely going to be a very big system traversing the mid section of the country mid week. It looks like the first decent storm system in a LONG time. It looks to have a lot of snow in the cold sector, maybe some decent storms in the south, and some soaking rains in between. As far as tornadoes, well I doubt it will be anything all that exciting. But at least it's something to watch FINALLY!

 

[rdale]

"There's definitely going to be a very big system traversing the mid section of the country mid week."

That's AWFULLY confident, considering that the Euro has as quiet a mid-March forecast for the US that I think I've ever seen ;> Absolutely nothing of note going on next week.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Yeah, I'm not seeing much as of now... Hopefully it will change though. The 06Z GFS does output quite a bit of QPF over the midwest, but as far as the system being very strong, it only sinks down to around 1320-1350m at 850mb. UKMET and ECMWF (00Z runs) don't show anything. The Canadian GEM is the strongest with the 500mb energy as it moves out into the plains, but then it begins to weaken as it approaches a very strong high pressure just northeast of MI - Which according to the GEM, has a grip on much of the midwest and northeast.

Still a long way away in the forecast world, so much could change...

 

[Joel Wright]

It still looks to me like there's going to be a pretty big system mid week. I didn't say a huge severe weather outbreak, but I bet there's going to be some severe storms along the gulf states. Maybe a pretty decent snow for portions of the midwest. I'll be very surprised if this doesn't happen...

 

[Robert Dewey]

It still looks to me like there's going to be a pretty big system mid week. I didn't say a huge severe weather outbreak, but I bet there's going to be some severe storms along the gulf states. Maybe a pretty decent snow for portions of the midwest. I'll be very surprised if this doesn't happen...

I hope your right, and don't do like I do (jinx it)...

I will definately be watching this situation...

 

[rdale]

"I will definately be watching this situation..."

Is there ever a potential storm outbreak where people post "I won't be watching this situation" ;> ?

New EC still dead.

 

[Robert Dewey]

"I will definately be watching this situation..."

Is there ever a potential storm outbreak where people post "I won't be watching this situation" ;> ?

New EC still dead.

No, but being philosophical, would I have posted the fact that I was watching the situation if I didn't think there was at least some probability of it actually happening? That was my point - If I didn't think there was ate least some chance of it happening, I wouldn't be watching. :lol:

BTW, where you getting the latest ECMWF?

Either way, I think things are still too far away to say if, where, or when a storm will happen... So until then - I'll definately be watching the situation :wink:

 

[rdale]

"That was my point - If I didn't think there was ate least some chance of it happening, I wouldn't be watching."

Given this dead season I think people wake up looking for something to pop up on the longrange...

Euro updates quite early on their website.

- Rob

 

[Joel Wright]

Given this dead season I think people wake up looking for something to pop up on the longrange...

You're exactly right. Next week's storm isn't going to be the storm of the century by any means lol, but it looks to be the most widespread, strongest storm the mid section of the CONUS has seen in quite awhile. So naturally I'm a little excited, maybe a bit prematurely lol. I guess we'll see.

 

[Joel Wright]

Well I wrote earlier that I'd be surprised if we didn't see at least a decent storm system mid week...Well, I'm very surprised and very disappointed. I was relying on the GFS which had been VERY consistant in the evolvement of a relatively potent system mid week. Well, it has totally backed off.

I really don't know why I should be surprised. Considering the pathetically boring weather pattern we have been stuck in for the past several months. I guess this is just par for the course.

I gotta tell you, if weather would have been this pathetically benign and boring in my youth, I doubt I would have taken up interest in it at all........

 

[rdale]

"I was relying on the GFS which had been VERY consistant in the evolvement of a relatively potent system mid week."

Doesn't matter how much the GFS runs stays constant over time - if it doesn't get some support from the real long-range models then just keep it in the back of your head without jumping onboard...

 

[Shane Adams]

I wonder if any conversations like these took place in the days leading up to May 3, 1999? Since no one saw it coming even the day before....

 

[rdale]

I doubt it as I don't recall any model having anything resemble a nasty storm day. The report from NWS shows profilers were a big factor in the forecasts being modified as the day progressed, there wasn't anything long-range.

Given that - I don't see a repeat coming this week...

- Rob