Better forecasting

[Elliott Budd]

I am still fairly new here and have looked around and posted some. Are there there tips on forecasting severe storms? I understand CAPE an EHI and torcon(which in my opinion a publicity gimmick from, NBC forced onto Dr. Forbes).Any tips?

 

[Dave C]

http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?22060-A-List-of-Learning-Resources

 

[ChristofferB]

I hope I can hijack this thread a bit. I am looking for learning resources as well and have built up a library of websites to check out (much thanks to the above mentioned link). Something I really would love to read is a blogger that comments the weather data for certain days with some graphics etc. Kind of like this storm chasers started to do: http://www.aerostorms.com/forecasts-and-educational-posts/ (but never really followed through with).

It would be great to see the weather data interpreted somewhere. Is there anyone blogging like this? Can the same information be found somewhere else? Most weather information websites are quite a bit over my skill level (almost complete newbie).

 

[Elliott Budd]

Thanks for the link Dave

 

[James Gustina]

You might consider this link:
https://www.meted.ucar.edu/index.php

It's completely free and the mesoscale meteorology module is excellent and starts out nice and slow. I'd also add in Haby Hints because it's well laid out and most of the topics are described very well in simple terms:
http://theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/

 

[Skip Talbot]

Are there there tips on forecasting severe storms? Any tips?

Something I really would love to read is a blogger that comments the weather data for certain days with some graphics etc. It would be great to see the weather data interpreted somewhere. Is there anyone blogging like this?

It's this forum, guys. This post may not sound helpful, but the Stormtrack forums are filled with both of the above. Browse the Advanced and Introductory forums for forecasting tips. The search feature is especially handy. Do Google searches with search strings starting with "site:www.stormtrack.org":
https://www.google.com/search?q=sit...j8&sourceid=chrome&espv=210&es_sm=93&ie=UTF-8

For discussions on forecasting specific events see the Target Area. We've had chase oriented forecast discussions for events that produced tornadoes this year already. If Target Area is over your head, please post questions in the Intro forum and we'd be happy to help out. I think it's a good goal for all to work toward understanding and being able to make their own forecasts. Chasers come and go on this forum, and its survival relies on your participation. Chaser blogs are great, but those come and go as well, and you're only getting a one sided viewpoint. You should all be making the effort to learn how to forecast and participate rather than waiting for other chasers to digest the information for you.

 

[Elliott Budd]

Thanks for all the advice im just a beginner learning the ropes so thanks again

 

[Rob H]

Do the MetEd tutorials linked above, and check out the Haby's Hints page linked above, specifically the part on the four ingredients of severe storms: lift, instability, moisture, shear. Buy Tim Vasquez's book on severe storms forecasting if you don't want to hop around links and have everything right in front of you.

For specific questions about the dryline for example, search the live forums and the archives here on ST.

Pick big days in the past (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/) read the outlooks/mesoscale discussions, and view the archived SPC mesoanalysis (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/ma_archive/) and check out the forecast threads here. The only way to fill in the gaps in your knowledge is to revisit historical events like a case study or to forecast events going forward.

 

[Chris_Spannagle]

These are a little more advanced but you can also go through some of the online modules from WDTB at: http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/awoc/awoc.html#SevereTrack

 

[Jon Strebler]

Look back at some of the bigger days and find the threads on here. Someone already mentioned this, but I wanted to emphasize that point. You can learn a good amount by picking certain days that had tornadoes, look back at the threads on here, and also look at the SPC archives and you will gather a decent amount of knowledge. You can follow trends, see what people were looking at, see how the information was interpreted and then see how it all ended up. I enjoy looking through old target area threads just to see what people were thinking and why.

 

[Scott Taylor]

I'd also recommend Tim's book. While it's material is more advanced, it will be of great value to have in your collection as you grow in knowledge.

http://www.weathergraphics.com/waf/

Scott

 

[ChristofferB]

One thing that would really help me out in learning is to have a step-by-step tutorial on which resources (including links) you use on any given day, like (and this is my guess which is very likely to be wrong, but just to give you an example):

1. Start by checking http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/ to see what they say about today's convective outlook. Slight risk in Nebraska, interesting...
2. I read the description below to get some further understanding.
3. ...continue to check the Tornado probalistic graph: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_0100_torn.gif ...oh, a 2% in Northeast Nebraska. Sounds promising, let me...
4. This could be a chase day! But let me just check out the upper level winds and moisture, I do this here: http://www.whichsitethiswouldbe . com
5. Great, now I need to know the CAPE I want to see if it is above 3000 (?).
...and so on.

If anyone could provide such a step-by-step (and I know this is depending on the day), then I have something to go after when I investigate the forecast everyday.

Since slight/moderate risk days are more interesting to investigate. Which (reminder) tools do you use. There are a bunch here: http://www.weather.gov/subscribe but which ones do you prefer?

....

Lastly, I downloaded the ExtremeInstability Storm analysis 101 and it is quite good and I can recommend it. Still leaves a lot of knowledge gaps but fills out plenty. Very interesting analysis of storms during chases which helps in the visual storm analysis on the field.

 

[Karen St John]

MetEd has taught me a great deal. As have several of Tim Vasquez' books.

 

[Mike Johnston]

One thing I do is slowly read the Day 1 convective outlook from SPC, and then in another window open up the SPC mesoanalysis map. As you read through the convective outlook, try to look for and identify the patterns they are referencing. Eg. if there is a short wave trough cited, can you identify it on the map, or how and where it is expected to develop? If advection of relatively high surface dewpoints are cited, can you identify it developing on the map? Seems simple enough, but I think it was Roger Edwards who said "you can't predict what the weather is going to do until you know what it is doing." Sooner or later, you'll develop enough confidence to make a forecast, and by all means post it on the forecast thread on this site.

 

[ChristofferB]

Karen & Mike: Thanks for the advice! I am really glad to get help here. I have seen the SPC Mesoanalysis map referenced plenty but haven't really found where it was so this was quite interesting.

Still, I am a complete beginner and even this seems too complicated. I will check out the MetEd-pages thoroughly hoping this might be the key to start my learning. I am starting to recognize and slightly understand definitions like CAPE, trough, lift etc it is very difficult to look at a weather map and start "seeing things". Right now it merely feels like I am picking up puzzle pieces here and there in no organized learning.

I totally agree that understanding comes way ahead of forecasting. I will go through all the educational links that has been provided in this thread and see what I can come up with!

How about my questions about alerts, which one do you prefer?