ATLANTIC: TD 2

[Bart_Comstock]

This invest is really starting to look good imho. depending on how the ridge breaks down we could see this system eventually impacting the Texas coast if the NAM has its way. Yes I do realize that looking 84hrs out on the NAM for a tropical cyclone that has yet to form is looking into fantasy land but it is never too early to start to plan fora "what if" scenario when chasing hurricanes.

A few of the models want to make this into a tropical cyclone over the next day or two and the environment certainly looks to be supportive. It also is looking like it has pretty decent outflow on every side of the system. Definitely a area to watch over the next couple of days.

 

[Kelly Sugden]

This invest is really starting to look good imho. depending on how the ridge breaks down we could see this system eventually impacting the Texas coast if the NAM has its way. Yes I do realize that looking 84hrs out on the NAM for a tropical cyclone that has yet to form is looking into fantasy land but it is never too early to start to plan fora "what if" scenario when chasing hurricanes.

A few of the models want to make this into a tropical cyclone over the next day or two and the environment certainly looks to be supportive. It also is looking like it has pretty decent outflow on every side of the system. Definitely a area to watch over the next couple of days.

Looks like a possible recon tomorrow. Alex part II.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 05/1500Z
D. 19.5N 86.0W
E. 05/1730Z TO 05/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

 

[Kelly Sugden]

Looks like a possible recon tomorrow. Alex part II.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 05/1500Z
D. 19.5N 86.0W
E. 05/1730Z TO 05/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Maybe not... doesn't look that good today. Probably just another soaking rain for Texas or Louisiana.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

I am sure it will follow the same path as Alex did.

Passport plus a gun to protect yourself, anyone?

 

[Bart_Comstock]

I started the original Invest 96L thread. My reason behind it was because it looks to have a genuine threat of becoming a tropical cyclone according to several models. Otherwise I would left it alone as its rare for me to start threads about invests.... in fact I believe this was my first one.

Furthermore there is nothing in the rules that say you cant start talking about a Invest before the circulation has formed. Not all waves become invests and this is a weather forum, it doesn't need to be on the brink of becoming a devastating weather phenomena to be something that can be discussed on this site. If there was a thread fired up for every wave out at sea then I would understand a little concern.

I also merged Rich's thread with the original Invest 92 thread since this invest was already being discussed.


It will be interesting to see what this thing does once it emerges into the gom. Although yes it is over land I do have a little concern about the lack of deeper convection near the center of circulation. The system also looks a little lopsided with only just recently better convection going up on the west side. By the looks of the latest visible satellite loop the circulation is jest about back out onto the gom. I have a feeling this system will ultimately be a much tighter storm if it gets its act together and will move a little north of Alex's track.

 

[Zack Hargrove]

I started the original Invest 96L thread. My reason behind it was because it looks to have a genuine threat of becoming a tropical cyclone according to several models. Otherwise I would left it alone as its rare for me to start threads about invests.... in fact I believe this was my first one.

Furthermore there is nothing in the rules that say you cant start talking about a Invest before the circulation has formed. Not all waves become invests and this is a weather forum, it doesn't need to be on the brink of becoming a devastating weather phenomena to be something that can be discussed on this site. If there was a thread fired up for every wave out at sea then I would understand a little concern.

I also merged Rich's thread with the original Invest 92 thread since this invest was already being discussed.


It will be interesting to see what this thing does once it emerges into the gom. Although yes it is over land I do have a little concern about the lack of deeper convection near the center of circulation. The system also looks a little lopsided with only just recently better convection going up on the west side. By the looks of the latest visible satellite loop the circulation is jest about back out onto the gom. I have a feeling this system will ultimately be a much tighter storm if it gets its act together and will move a little north of Alex's track.

I agree... If someone doesn't want to read a thread on an Invest, then they can easily skip over it and ignore it. It doesn't hurt anyone. That being said, I see this becoming a named system soon, but I do not think it will have as much strength as Alex. It could go a bit further North, however.

 

[Matt Gingery]

I have to agree with Bart on the relevance of the thread. I don't see this as a threat to S. Texas yet. The only thing that would suggest that this area of interest would hit Texas as opposed to the track of Alex, is the location at which it is crossing the Yucatan. This area is very flat and will have little weakening impact on this invest. This area IMO should hang together and at the very least become a T.S. Needs to be watched very closely for sure. The things that bother me as far as a chaseable U.S. impact are as follows. Weak troughing to the north. The ridge in place is just as substantial as when Alex tracked through. 500mb flow is running on the order of 25-35kts westerly, and sfc winds are westerly. Maybe some upper troughing over N. Central Mexico, and the lower CONUS could steer this area towards the Texas coast. I like the Non Global Beta model, and have since 05', that run has the invest tracking into the same area as Alex did. Expect these models on the Spaghetti runs to trend more north this go around, I think there is enough troughing way up at the 300mb level to steer this thing into the lower CONUS. The key to this happening is having the invest strengthen into a storm quick enough for the upper flow to control storm motion. IMO, this is more of a threat to the CONUS than Alex was, however, I am going to call it another Mexico impact until this area becomes better organized. I did notice at the 850mb level a pretty descent fetch into the LA to FL coastline, so may have more rain to add to the already soaked portions from Alex.

 

[cedwards]

Invest 96L becomes TD2. Forecast to become a minimal Tropical Storm and come inland in south Texas tomorrow evening. THe convection has actually weakened in the last couple of hours, but may restrengthen overnight. THe coastal bend should get some high rainfall totals in the next few days.

 

[Bart_Comstock]

I seriously doubt this storm being able to become Bonnie with how poor it looks on satellite. The convection is very poor still and I am surprised it was even able to make it to TD strength. As mentioned above there is still some time left for it to get its act to gather but that very VERY tiny window is closing fast.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

IR imagery showed warming cloud tops even before the NHC upgraded INVEST 96L to TD2. I have to say that this is one of the worst satellite presentations of a freshly-upgraded tropical depression that I've seen for a few years. The Brownsville WSR88D doesn't show much, though I guess I can see some "twisting" in the core of showers approx 145-150 miles SE of Brownsville at this time. Save for a few gates/bins, max reflectivity within that "core" of showers is 35-39 dBZ. There aren't many buoys S of the latitude of BRO, unfortunately; we really only have buoy 42055 E of Tampico, but that's quite a ways from this fresh "TD" now, so I'm not sure we can use it to say with certainty that there's no LLC with TD2.

I haven't looked at all of the recon data from this evening, but how many obs did they collect that supported a TD? Between this and INVEST 95 a couple of days ago, there are some strange happenings... Of course, systems tend to be less definitive when they are weak (e.g. borderline TDs), so I suppose this isn't that usual. Just strange, IMO.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

It sure looks like crap. Alex probably used most of it's energy (upwelled water and such) up from last week.