Atlantic: Nate

[MClarkson]

As of about the time of this post, TS Nate is essentially stationary in the southwestern GOM, with some very dry air to the north. My 4 favorite forecast models (GFS ECMWF GFDL HWRF) all intensify the system. All are slow moving, with the GFS taking the system on a slow track north over the next week and the other three moving the storm slowly into Mexico south of the US border by early next week. Its got plenty of time to intensify over very warm waters, with the major detrimental factor being the dry air.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Although Nate is not all that impressive right now, and the models are still all over the place, I think this storm needs to be watched carefully for a US Gulf strike.

W.

 

[Chip Redmond]

Watching overall model trends in both the GFS ensembles and others, they have all gradually started trending to the north. Even HPC has shifted the expected track farther to the northwest. The dry air is beginning to mix out over much of the northern Gulf via water vapor imagery and also precipitable water values. I think over time this will definitely drift farther north than expected at the moment and will pose a big danger to the US. A week is a long time, and that is how long it would take to trek even to the southern part of Texas (which gravely needs its rain), and that is a long time for a tropical storm to maintain its strength and avoid many other external factors from the upper level support, etc that could weaken it considerably . At this time though, with a pretty vague and boring upper level flow over much of the Americas currently and forecasted for the upcoming week, it has a big chance. As Warren said, all eyes should be on Nate.

Chip

edit: I suppose I probably should have examined the last NHC advisory before I called them out to saying it was trending north, the most recent appears that they think it will turn to the west now... Upper level support just to the north suggests a more northern/easterly trek, but the winds at 300mb over the storm for the next 48-60 hours will remain to the west along the ITCZ. I guess it depends on whether it can escape the easterlies or not.