joel ewing
EF5
Anybody talented forecasters out there who would like to offer some hope to us chasers that will begin our season the last week of May thru mid-June??
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Any hope on the horizon for late may / early june?
- Thread starter joel ewing
- Start date
Jeff Snyder
EF5
A related thread can be found at http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=6357
Nobody can accurately forecast severe storm and tornado occurrence beyond a few days. The OVERALL synoptic pattern certainly doesn't look favorable for tornado outbreaks or strong tornado events in the plains for the foreseeable future, but that's based on model forecasts, which become more and more guess-casts in time. I can, with fair confidence, say that we shouldn't expect a strong tornado event in the plains for at least a week, with ANOTHER (if we haven't seen enough already) cut-off upper low forecast to drift from the Missouri river vally southward into eastern Texas through the week, leaving most of the plains in northerly flow. Given the time of year, I'd say that the southern plains window is starting to close, so my eyes turn, naturally, northwards towards KS/NE. Again, this year has been very unclimatological, so any forecast based on climatology probably won't verify too well.
On a lighter note, I would try to chase during the June 1-6 timeframe. This spring, there are/have been two periods during which I cannot/couldn't chase. The first was the May 12-15 period (missed the May 12th, 13th supercells). The second will be the June 1-6 period; book your calendars now!
So... it would do no good to try to forecast chase chances for the period from late May through MID-JUNE (that's a month out!). We may be able to identify synoptic patterns that may or may not be favorable for the development of severe storms a few day in advance, but anything into the mesoscale or lower is worthless beyond a day or two. Anything farther out would be like looking at a CPC temperature graphic and saying that above-average temps for the next month must signal ridging and no tornado chances -- ludicris.
Nobody can accurately forecast severe storm and tornado occurrence beyond a few days. The OVERALL synoptic pattern certainly doesn't look favorable for tornado outbreaks or strong tornado events in the plains for the foreseeable future, but that's based on model forecasts, which become more and more guess-casts in time. I can, with fair confidence, say that we shouldn't expect a strong tornado event in the plains for at least a week, with ANOTHER (if we haven't seen enough already) cut-off upper low forecast to drift from the Missouri river vally southward into eastern Texas through the week, leaving most of the plains in northerly flow. Given the time of year, I'd say that the southern plains window is starting to close, so my eyes turn, naturally, northwards towards KS/NE. Again, this year has been very unclimatological, so any forecast based on climatology probably won't verify too well.
On a lighter note, I would try to chase during the June 1-6 timeframe. This spring, there are/have been two periods during which I cannot/couldn't chase. The first was the May 12-15 period (missed the May 12th, 13th supercells). The second will be the June 1-6 period; book your calendars now!
So... it would do no good to try to forecast chase chances for the period from late May through MID-JUNE (that's a month out!). We may be able to identify synoptic patterns that may or may not be favorable for the development of severe storms a few day in advance, but anything into the mesoscale or lower is worthless beyond a day or two. Anything farther out would be like looking at a CPC temperature graphic and saying that above-average temps for the next month must signal ridging and no tornado chances -- ludicris.
Scott Olson
EF5
Joel, the Climate Prediction Center does this very thing. Im sure once there is some consensus on when the pattern is changing again they will certainly talk about it. I wouldn't be to worried, I have read a lot of chasers logs that were during years where there were ridges (may, june) and it wasn't totally without any storms.
-Scott.
-Scott.
joel ewing
EF5
Thanks to you both who responded so promptly! Please understand that I wasn't looking for any "exact" chase days...I've been doing this far too long to expect that. I am a non-meteorologist who's chased for 25 yrs, and tried to learn as I go along...especially nights in front of my pc in and out of sites that help teach during the off season.
But being that I am not formally schooled...I cannot make any kind of analysis as to if there are any beginnings of the types of situations upstream which might signal some kind of movement which would lead to a bit of hope. Of course, I'd be completely blown away if things hadn't "righted" themselves by the first week or two of June. Being a Nebraska native (4th. gen) and so. Ariz hybrid...it's long been my experience that at least No. Kansas and Nebraska in particular get very active in June. In fact, in my view, normally the first few days of June can be sort-of "transition" days with no activity in Nebrasksa, followed by some very intense action from June 4th thru the entire month. But again, I just don't know what kind of meteorological signs upstream to look for that might signal that our current situation is changing....hence my post.
If chasing "blind"... with only a NOAA radio and an occasional noon wx. cast on local tv stations taught me anything in my early days.....it's that a guy can damn sure score big on even "iffy" days. Having only a small window to be in the alley each year tended to make me extract every bit of opportunity out of each day. It was a great lesson to learn, and a lot of guys probably never do learn it at all.
So here's hoping that we all get some action towards the back end of May....and even an outbreak or three within the next few weeks.
But being that I am not formally schooled...I cannot make any kind of analysis as to if there are any beginnings of the types of situations upstream which might signal some kind of movement which would lead to a bit of hope. Of course, I'd be completely blown away if things hadn't "righted" themselves by the first week or two of June. Being a Nebraska native (4th. gen) and so. Ariz hybrid...it's long been my experience that at least No. Kansas and Nebraska in particular get very active in June. In fact, in my view, normally the first few days of June can be sort-of "transition" days with no activity in Nebrasksa, followed by some very intense action from June 4th thru the entire month. But again, I just don't know what kind of meteorological signs upstream to look for that might signal that our current situation is changing....hence my post.
If chasing "blind"... with only a NOAA radio and an occasional noon wx. cast on local tv stations taught me anything in my early days.....it's that a guy can damn sure score big on even "iffy" days. Having only a small window to be in the alley each year tended to make me extract every bit of opportunity out of each day. It was a great lesson to learn, and a lot of guys probably never do learn it at all.
So here's hoping that we all get some action towards the back end of May....and even an outbreak or three within the next few weeks.
Andy Wehrle
EF5
Climatology be blowed as far as I'm concerned. From what I've observed there's no such thing as a "climatological" year. The only constant is that at some point in the year there will be atmospheric conditions that don't fit with seasonal "normals". Last year the upper Midwest saw an unusually rainy May/June, followed by record low temperatures for August. Last year Florida was slammed by an unprecedented four significant hurricanes + 1 tropical storm. And also last year, most of the major tornado outbreaks waited until late May. What does all this mean for this year? Probably absolutely nothing.
Here we are on May 16th. At this time in 2003, most of the significant tornado/chase days (with the exception of June 24th in SD) were over. At this time last year, most of them (with the exception of May 12th) were yet to come.
Given the process of cold fronts pushing into the Gulf and wiping it out continuing through the end of April and into early May (much like last year), my hunch is that any major tornado days will once again hold off until late May or perhaps into June. Even late June (as in 2003) can bring big chase days. And a late season doesn't always screw over the southern Plains. May 29, 2004 and June 13, 1998 are just a couple examples of major tornadic supercells in Oklahoma in late May/June.
As I said in another thread; relax!. There will be more chase days. And my hearty congratulations to those of you who have already bagged 'naders this year.
Here we are on May 16th. At this time in 2003, most of the significant tornado/chase days (with the exception of June 24th in SD) were over. At this time last year, most of them (with the exception of May 12th) were yet to come.
Given the process of cold fronts pushing into the Gulf and wiping it out continuing through the end of April and into early May (much like last year), my hunch is that any major tornado days will once again hold off until late May or perhaps into June. Even late June (as in 2003) can bring big chase days. And a late season doesn't always screw over the southern Plains. May 29, 2004 and June 13, 1998 are just a couple examples of major tornadic supercells in Oklahoma in late May/June.
As I said in another thread; relax!. There will be more chase days. And my hearty congratulations to those of you who have already bagged 'naders this year.
Mike Johnson
Joel:
NCEP MODELS: http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/spa...ag_f192_nh.html
are showing NW flow events beginning on (about) May 24 and continuing
for several days before the models go haywire.
Chasers often overlook NW flow events and the classic tornadoes
they can produce. I think the wild Spearman, TX wedge
and the Fritch, TX tornadoes were produced from NW flow events.
Someone correct me if I am wrong?
Mike
NCEP MODELS: http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/spa...ag_f192_nh.html
are showing NW flow events beginning on (about) May 24 and continuing
for several days before the models go haywire.
Chasers often overlook NW flow events and the classic tornadoes
they can produce. I think the wild Spearman, TX wedge
and the Fritch, TX tornadoes were produced from NW flow events.
Someone correct me if I am wrong?
Mike
Walker Ashley
EF1
The problem with NWF scenarios in May and early June is the lack of moisture. We can have disturbance after disturbance role through the NWF, but with a lack of moisture, such features are (typically) worthless. Unfortunately, this appears to be the case looking at the models for the upcoming week or so. NWF scenarios are much better later in the warm season -- typically after mid June -- when moisture is available thanks to climatological maximums in moisture and the peak in evapotranspiration rates.
BTW, it is hard for some of us to "relax" when we have planned vacations that are coinciding with this pitiful setup for the upcoming week or so.
joel ewing
EF5
Who said anything about relaxing??
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