Anniversary of the Killer Heat Event in Chicago 07-13-95

I was up in chi-town when all of that was going on...in fact I remember the event quite well. It was some of the MOST HORRIBLE heat I've ever experienced in my life!
 
I remember that awful summer. The heat wouldn't even go down at night.

I think that this was one of Chicago's worst disasters, with 500+ deaths.
 
Yeah it was pretty unusual. Dewpoints don't usually cross the 80° mark when the ambient temperature reading rises above 100°.
 
Heat

Weren't most of the people who died elderly?? I think many of them couldn't afford airconditioning etc. Hope this event never repeats itself again.
 
I've read case studies of that event, soundings, reports, etc. They say CAPE was as high as 8000+ J/Kg at the height of the heat wave. There had to be a big 'ol thermonuclear cap on the atmosphere as well, or there would have been a violent convective explosion!
 
Originally posted by David Draun
I've read case studies of that event, soundings, reports, etc. They say CAPE was as high as 8000+ J/Kg at the height of the heat wave. There had to be a big 'ol thermonuclear cap on the atmosphere as well, or there would have been a violent convective explosion!

And where the cap blew along the rim of fire, they had some huge derechos, particually the Adirondacks Derecho
 
Re: Heat

Originally posted by Craig Maire II
Weren't most of the people who died elderly?? I think many of them couldn't afford airconditioning etc. Hope this event never repeats itself again.

Yes, most of the people who died were elderly. Air conditioning might have saved their lives if they were lucky enough to be in a part of the city that did not suffer electrical outages -- a large swath of the North Side lost power for most of the heatwave. At the time, much of Chicago's electrical grid used transformers built in the 1920s, which blew up.

Between global warming and the expansion of Chicago's heat island, similar temperatures are almost assured in the city. The lethality will probably not be equalled since the city goes on alert when the heat index approaches 100 -- the elderly get visited and called, cooling centers open and people are encouraged to call 311 for heat-related problems.
 
Warren wrote:
The lethality will probably not be equalled since the city goes on alert when the heat index approaches 100 -- the elderly get visited and called, cooling centers open and people are encouraged to call 311 for heat-related problems.

Well its definitely good that the city etc. has a heat emrgency plan, just to bad it took around 700 people to die before it was implemented. :shock:
 
I just called the family, they're saying well over 100 possible this weekend. :shock: The cold summer of 2004 is now forgotten.

Hey Craig, your avatar, it looks like you're about to throw a 4-seam fastball with that piece of baseball sized hail! :lol:

Hot stuff in the midwest, I guess they're having a taste of what I'm living with every day.
 
the media in Chicago is going nuts for this weekend. Chicago is already calling people and warning them. i got a call from niles today warning me also about the 100+ degree temps. One of the weatherguys on wgn radio said the max temp possible is 106-107 :shock: . it might not be the sw but for Chicago thats extreme heat
 
They get 107F temps in Chicago and it will truly become an emergency situation! Tommorow looks to be the warmest day of the year so far, temps will be around 100F with DPS approaching 80F! Our low for tomorrow night will be around 80F... :shock:
 
Originally posted by Craig Maire II
They get 107F temps in Chicago and it will truly become an emergency situation! Tommorow looks to be the warmest day of the year so far, temps will be around 100F with DPS approaching 80F! Our low for tomorrow night will be around 80F... :shock:

of course all this could change and tomorrow could be much to do about nothing if a couple of storms pop
 
Originally posted by Kevin Bowman+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Kevin Bowman)</div>
<!--QuoteBegin-David Draun
I've read case studies of that event, soundings, reports, etc. They say CAPE was as high as 8000+ J/Kg at the height of the heat wave. There had to be a big 'ol thermonuclear cap on the atmosphere as well, or there would have been a violent convective explosion!

And where the cap blew along the rim of fire, they had some huge derechos, particually the Adirondacks Derecho[/b]

The Derechos of 1995:

july1995derechos.jpg


The "right turn" derecho was by far the worst. That length of that track is absolutely amazing (from MT to PA) :shock:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/c...age.htm#2nd1995
 
WGN weather tends to extremes

It seems to me that WGN's forecasts tend to be hotter in the summer than others. When everybody else said 94-96, they said 100. When other forecasts rose to 98, theirs rise to 101. When everybody caught up to them at 100, they jumped to 103. Unfortunately, this temperatures during this summer's heatwaves have tended to exceed forecast values, making WGN the best guess.

My guess is to go with the GFS (best record this year IMO) for the 850 mb temperature and simply advect dewpoints from the SSW. This would bring T850 of 25.0-25.5 C and dewpoints of 21.5 C. I added a conservative 14.8 C to T850, and got about 40 C or 104 F.

Now, the National Weather Service forecast calls for a T8 of 27-28 C, which is near the 1995 level. I hope they're wrong, since those seem to coincide with 41-43C (106-109 F) on the ground.

Update: The highest hourly reading at O'Hare (official reading, on NW side of city) was 102 F, at Midway (SW side) it hit 104 F. Dewpoints fell into the 60s over metro Chicago as temperatures soared, which kept the heat index under 110. Official high temperatures may be a bit higher when the NWS releases its 6-hour temperature data.
 
Part of the DVN afternoon discussion....

"SUNDAY...WITH A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE...AND EXTREMELY WARM AIR
ALOFT...WE WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS WIDESPREAD IN THE 99 TO 104 RANGE.
IF DEEP MIXING TO 800 MB CAN OCCUR...AND THIS IS POSSIBLE...WE MAY
SEE SOME SPOTS IN THE 105 TO 110 RANGE...BUT IF THIS OCCURS IT
SHOULD BE ISOLATED. HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO 115 ARE LIKELY..."



I don't think temps will quite reach above 105, high dewpoints and extreme temps will make this fairly comparable to 1995. The only difference is the length of extreme heat. This looks to be a pretty quick shot of extreme heat, unlike the lengthy 1995 episode.
 
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