Chris DeRosier
Oh....I relate to the "ruin the parade" syndrome! It happens so much here too!
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Oh....I relate to the "ruin the parade" syndrome! It happens so much here too!
Darren Addy
EF5
The "town" becomes an arbitrary point of reference which is given greater importance than any other point on the map. For example, if Chadron had been built where the State Park is, would you be wondering right now: "I wonder what is so strange about that area 8 miles north? I notice that storms always seem to go north or south of it?" Doubtful that it would even be noticed (or significant enough to you that you would consider some effect as the cause).
The surrounding area is probably filled with areas that you could say a similar thing about, except that we don't notice them because there is no town there.
I'll leave it to others more expert to decide whether 8 years is a statistically adequate period of time for conclusions to be drawn. Also, not sure about the Chadron area, but Nebraska -in general- is going into Drought Year 6. We had some relief in May/June of this year, but we may still be in what is considered a drought. If that was true for your area, then it would mean that 75% of your observation period has been characterized by fewer percipitation events than normal, which could partially explain why Chadron hasn't had a direct hit. If fewer bullets are flying then it is easier to be missed!
Darren Addy
Kearney, NELaura Good Buffalo
yes I must admit I didn't take the drought into consideration. and like you , with the exception of this may/june, we definitely have been in a drought. it sure would be nice to get a few more hits, though :?Laura Good Buffalo
and Darren, I've been meaning to get on StormWiki. I've got some pretty cool pics of some of the storms that have passed us up. that's the one good thing about them going around, I get really great 15-25 mi shots of developing cells. will work on getting on soon.
David Draun
EF5
Aahhh, Lake Michigan. It's southern tip has been responsible for many urban/small stream floods in recent years. It starts out has a hot heavily capped summer day. By evening, a weak cold front, outflow boundary, or some other kind of cap buster moves down across the IL/WI border, turning winds from the east just ahead of it. It's clear blue sky to BOOM! as the atmosphere immediately goes nuclear in the course of what seems like just a few moments. Within minutes there is a line or train of SLOW-MOVING, constantly backbuilding thunderstorms from just north of Chicago, west/southwest to the Quad Cities. It is awesome to watch this happen. I've seen blinding rain, and strobbing lightning for six sustained hours from one of these events.
Joe Zemek
EF2
Well, this makes sense, and as I mentioned certainly the storms coming off high terrain N and E are susceptible to this scenario, but many storms moving across the desert floor also peter out at the urban edge.
One thing that I didn't consider before was the apparently decreasing number of storms within city limits. When I was growing up here, the active monsoon seasons saw many storms in inner PHX. Having been gone 9 summers and back for the last 2, I saw a dramatic reduction in storm number in PHX, but I realized that may be more a drought factor than of the heat island.
I agree the urban area is more humid, but i think that the humidity in combination with heat-storing concrete disallows nocturnal cooling and thus perpetuates local heat. How high this heat goes I do not know, but without cooler air aloft you can't have lift, and this seems to be the problem.
Joe Zemek
EF2
Doug & Darren, way to think scientifically. Indeed the discussion should have started with such a post. Perception followed by analysis.
Not that spontaneous unresearched theories aren't also fun
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