ALANTIC: TD Four

[Justin McGinley]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2010

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 41.1W
ABOUT 1365 MI...2200 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28
KM/HR. A CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY.

 

[Jason Foster]

Damn it....tracks looking more and more like a possible fish storm. Still WAY EARLY of course...but that has been the trend on the tracks from the models.

 

[Jason Foster]

You should know by now that when the 5-10 day progs show the hurricane tracking where you want it to, it will not likely track that way. And Vice-versa. (there are some exceptions of course.)

I always feel better when those longer range progs show the storm going somewhere else than where I wish for it to go.

Yeah, however, what I do put more value in is the overall sequence of each run as a succession of tracks moving more and more north. However, there are still lots of things to look for.

Right now, I'm just happy to hear we have reach Tropical Storm status on TD#4, now COLIN. Go "C" storm go!!!!

 

[Marcus Opitz]

Colin now a remnant low, moving rapidly wnw. I wonder if regeneration is possible? I dont see it likely as it will have to contend with the upper low to its wnw..... Strange.

 

[cdcollura]

Guys,

There is a lot of shear out there. I know this "S" word strikes a nerve (like "Ridge" in May or "2009") but it is what it is, especially with such a fast moving storm.

Shear anyone?

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

...What did you expect from a storm named Colon : a pleasurable experience?

Yup, I know. And the storm has been the same as the "s---" (stuff) that comes out of your colon the whole time ;-)

 

[cedwards]

It strengthens then weakens then strengthens, then weakens. It is very irregular. I think it needs more fiber in it's diet.

 

[Chance Metz]

Or else it is messing with us. Watch it reform again. Colin has never gone where they thought it would and even stopped for a day after going 20 mph to the northeast.

 

[Chance Metz]

And now the system has died.