AccuWeather wants to shut down free data

[rdale]

"Why is it wrong for the NWS, a PUBLIC entity, to make site-specific forecasts? "

Because taxpayer money is going to provide a forecast for a specific, profitmaking company... The government can get into ANY industry it wants. Would it be okay for the IRS to start doing all bookkeeping for free? What about my cop analogy? You are saying that's okay?

I guess it's just down to political philosophy and that'd take us into the "general chat" forum ;> I believe that the government should provide basic services to the people, paid for by the people. Anything extra should be supplied by the private sector...

- Rob

 

[Glen Romine]

If the new NWS policy comes into play, the concert people can just call NWS every 5 minutes and get the latest radar update for free... I disagree with that.

Same applies here as to the NASCAR folks, they are just as able to dial up and get the live radar feed - but why do they choose not to? Same with the PGA tour - they have a met that goes with them to every event - but he makes them catered forecasts specific for their needs - this is the burden of private mets - if the concert folks are capable of interpretting wx data to meet their needs, good for them, they can save a few bucks. Maybe you need to provide instrument tuning guidance to the concert folks. Again, value add - there is a huge void that the NWS can never fill - be entrepeneurial, find these voids and fill them. The NWS is never going to give private catered forecasts to cement industry or any other - but those industries are certainly welcome to access the info and figure out how to use it if they want. If they don't need a met to get the level of info they need - then they shouldn't be obligated to have to a pay for the information anyway.

Glen

 

[rdale]

"The NWS is never going to give private catered forecasts to cement industry or any other"

But Jeff thinks they should - and the kicker is that the current policy which forbids such competition will be replaced by a new policy that allows it. That's the crutch of this WHOLE debate....

"If they don't need a met to get the level of info they need - then they shouldn't be obligated to have to a pay for the information anyway. '

Agreed and nobody is saying they should. The concert place could easily get online and grab an image. There's more to forecasting rain than that as we all know! But the new policy would allow the concert people to CALL the NWS every 5 minutes and ask for their interpretation / nowcasting...

- Rob

 

[Robert Dewey]

Additionally, as a pet peeve of mine, many media mets still give hi/low's as exact degrees. C'mon now, if you're confident enough to forecast a high of 88 degree, over the NWS oft-forecast upper-80s, then good for you!

LOL! The NWS DTX does exactly that - Forecasts exact degree!

Hmm... from ZFP issue by DTX:
"
.THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 2 PM...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 75 TO 79. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF
RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 8 PM...THEN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING...THEN PATCHY
FOG. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE EARLY EVENING...THEN
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 53 TO 57. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10
MPH...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.

Oops, I'm wrong :lol:

Anyway, if the NWS wants to produce certain products, more power to them. If the private sector wants to produce the same product as the NWS, more power to them as well... Cause in the end, I make my own forecast...

 

[rdale]

"Oops, I'm wrong"

You aren't - I think it depends on who's foreasting. I've seen them give precise numbers in the ZFP's out to day 7 on occasion...

 

[Robert Dewey]

I can understand where your coming from on this, Rob. Government entities are not to compete against business. If the NWS were to start generating their own in office broadcasts, and TV stations were to start using them over the private sector, then that is competition. Things as of right now are fine the way they are.

After looking at the site you (Rob) gave me... It appears that the NWS wants to revise their 1991 Policy, and remove the section that states the NWS cannot compete with private sector (to sum it up). My question is, why would they do this?

 

[Glen Romine]

But the new policy would allow the concert people to CALL the NWS every 5 minutes and ask for their interpretation / nowcasting...

- Rob

Sure, I could call them too, and what are they going to tell me? "Sorry, but we don't have the manpower to give you a personal forecast". I'm sure the goal of this new policy is not to have private individuals contacting them for information - but they should have the right to distribute the wx data in public consumable forms, such as the daily wx summary map:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaa.gif

This is a lot more aesthetic than a pile of difax charts at the mandatory levels, and if they want to provide more customer friendly products i think they should have the right to do so.

Glen

 

[rdale]

"I'm sure the goal of this new policy is not to have private individuals contacting them for information "

Then what is it? Check all the letters and you won't find one upset about HPC providing a national overview...

 

[Glen Romine]

Then what is it? Check all the letters and you won't find one upset about HPC providing a national overview...

The HPC forecast is just an example of a derived data product. I could have just as easily picked this one:

http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/data/...26581c4d5c45b84

Here is a custom product for a specific industry (aviation), or you could argue that SPC's fire weather forecasts are too industry specific, or many other examples... They could give very nice detailed hourly forecast maps surface winds, overlayed with highway maps, and the transportation industry might find those very useful. Both public and private industry could benefit from such products, and if the NWS wants to make them - so be it. They should not be restricted to only providing products that noone in private industry is making available. This is how I interpret the drive to change the policy. Maybe this is incorrect - but I have yet to see anything to make me believe otherwise.

Glen

 

[Jeff Snyder]

"The NWS is never going to give private catered forecasts to cement industry or any other"

But Jeff thinks they should - and the kicker is that the current policy which forbids such competition will be replaced by a new policy that allows it. That's the crutch of this WHOLE debate....

"If they don't need a met to get the level of info they need - then they shouldn't be obligated to have to a pay for the information anyway. '

Agreed and nobody is saying they should. The concert place could easily get online and grab an image. There's more to forecasting rain than that as we all know! But the new policy would allow the concert people to CALL the NWS every 5 minutes and ask for their interpretation / nowcasting...

- Rob

Again I think that the folks should have a choice on where to get their weather info -- beit from the "free" NWS or from a pay-for private company. Obviously, and in cases that have been brought up, they may very well be better served by a private company. However, they should have the choice... Now, as for calling up the NWS every 5 minutes? Sure, it may be technically possible under the new proposed/revised policy, but it isn't likely. Most NWSFO's don't have the people-power or resources to be able to do that. And if they did? The region HQ would probably divert funding from them to other projects, since, again, it may not be an efficient use of resources for the NWS to make site-specific forecasts for private companies. So, while it gives a choice to the user, I don't think the NWS will do forecasts for for-profit companies as resources will limit that... And again, thus the reason for the need for private-sector companies.

LOL I do think this comes down to political ideology / view of the role of government. Excellent debate, btw!

 

[Jay McCoy]

I dont think private companies have much to worry about with reguard to competition. The NWS provides its information for safety reasons and isnt looking to obtain clients.

One thing that was said that I will have to disagree on is that a tv met could give a better or more accurate forecast. In my experience most tv mets (not all) have a 2 yr degree but some do have their full 4 yr met degree but all NWS mets have a 4 yr degree and know a bit more than how to smile for the camera. Like I said I have a number of friends on tv.

Also as for the up to date or current forecasts. The NWS puts out short term forecasts comtinually when wx is changing and is usually accurate. if it is changing for the worse then that is when the warnings come in and they are ahead of even the private mets. The local tv cut ins happen after the warning is issued.

As for the "local" forecast compared to the area forecast. I am not sure if all NWS offices have the same type of forecast yet but in amarillo the forecast is "pinpoint". If I click on 1 area I get a forecast. If I click on a spot 30 miles from there I get a different forecast. it is time consuming for them but they have to do a forecast for every area specifically in the NWSFO warning area. Not just by county but by 3 mile grids so saying that a private met in another state or a local tv met could give a better or more personalized forecast is wrong. here is a link to explain this

[/url]http://www.srh.weather.gov/srh/jetstream/webweather/pinpoint_max.htm I will contiue to use certain private companies but also want my free data from the NWS.

 

[rdale]

"One thing that was said that I will have to disagree on is that a tv met could give a better or more accurate forecast. In my experience most tv mets (not all) have a 2 yr degree but some do have their full 4 yr met degree but all NWS mets have a 4 yr degree and know a bit more than how to smile for the camera."

There's no such thing as a 2-yr meteorology degree... Emphasis on _C_ould. Could. And I was not referring to JUST tv mets, I said private-sector mets. There is nothing in the "air" of an NWS office that automatically makes them a great forecaster.

"Like I said I have a number of friends on tv. "

As do I, but I associate with most of mine at severe weather conferences / doppler radar training / etc. and I can name a few off the top of my head that can forecast better than the average NWS met.

"Also as for the up to date or current forecasts. The NWS puts out short term forecasts comtinually when wx is changing and is usually accurate."

Continually? Hmmm.... I never see updates more than every hour.

"they are ahead of even the private mets. The local tv cut ins happen after the warning is issued. "

Hold the bus here... The NWS has _never_ beaten me for a Tornado Warning in my viewing area when an actual tornado has occurred. The last event we had I broke in to alert people to a dangerous storm and about two minutes into my cut-in the county went red for TOR. That's the advantage of TV mets who are trained - they don't need to wait for someone at the NWS office to pull the trigger before warning people. Jay Trobec @ KELO, John McLaughlin at KCCI, Lon Curtis and more all are capable of being on the air prior to a warning being issued. There's a reason TV stations spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on the technology - and it's not just to display NWS warnings in a pretty manner ;> Whether or not all stations use that technology correctly or give their mets training is another thread.

"If I click on a spot 30 miles from there I get a different forecast. it is time consuming for them but they have to do a forecast for every area specifically in the NWSFO warning area. Not just by county but by 3 mile grids"

You are confused. They do not tailor the forecast for each 3mile grid. They pick a few points and contour from there. Contouring is _not_ point forecasting.

"so saying that a private met in another state or a local tv met could give a better or more personalized forecast is wrong."

It's NOT WRONG. The NWS met can be 50-100 miles away from the point he is forecasting for, and he has to forecast for a 5000 square mile area. The private met can be sitting in the middle of that point and only worry about 20 square miles...

- Rob

 

[Jay McCoy]

Once again I have to disagree about certain things.

1 is there are a number of universities that offer 2 yr degrees in broadcast meteorology such as Mississippi St. and alot of tv mets have the 2 yr degrees.

2 is most "private" companies have an office somewhere where their mets do the forecast for my area when they are 1000 miles away from me when the NWSFO is right there. The tv mets are there also and have an advantage over a private company met.

3 nobody but the NWS can issue a warning for a tornado or anything else period. They can go on air and say they have spotted a tornado or a chaser reported baseball hail but they can issue their own warning. We had that problem here with a local tv met that was popping up his own warning when he felt it was severe and the NWS called him out on it and threatened to have the station license revoked by the FCC. he now issues "strong storm" on his little corner map instead which is allowed.

As for tv or private sector mets doing better forecasts than the NWS I dont buy it. Most mets I know read every outlook, discussion and forecast made by the NWS before they ever put their own forecast together. They usually spent 1-2 hrs building their show when a NWS forecaster spends hours reading models and writing discussions. I would put their forecasting skills and guys like some of the SPC guys up against any private met out there. After 19 yrs I would put some of my forecasting skills up against some too (and I dont have a degree just field experience which you cant get in a book). I am not saying all are good because I know a few working for the NWS and SPC and tv that couldnt forecast rain in a hurricane :lol: I think the biggest advantage a forecaster of any sort has is knowing the climatology and quirks of a certain area. I guarantee a forecaster in Atlanta or Chicago will miss the nuances of tx panhandle wx 75% of the time. it is one of the toughest places to forecast in the country. that is why the tv mets stay here for 20-30 yrs is the challenge and diversity (not to mention 65,000ft supercells.

 

[rdale]

"there are a number of universities that offer 2 yr degrees in broadcast meteorology such as Mississippi St. and alot of tv mets have the 2 yr degrees."

Private-sector meteorology does not include 2-yr broadcast mets as their membership. If you want to work for a private met company or NWS and bring your 2-yr degree on the resume it will be rejected 99% of the time.

"most "private" companies have an office somewhere where their mets do the forecast for my area when they are 1000 miles away from me"

If you followed the thread that's not what I was referring to. I was talking about local private mets.

"nobody but the NWS can issue a warning for a tornado or anything else period. They can go on air and say they have spotted a tornado or a chaser reported baseball hail but they can issue their own warning."

I assume you meant "cannot" but in the end that's the same. Correct, I do not use the word "tornado warning." I say "my interpretation of the doppler radar tells me this is a nasty storm that could contain a tornado." I do not need to wait for NWS to issue a formal TOR to do so. You said that breakins don't occur til after the warning is issued and that is not the case.

"Most mets I know read every outlook, discussion and forecast made by the NWS before they ever put their own forecast together."

You again are referring to TV mets. I'm talking about private sector met. Can a TV met just read the NWS products and go from there? Sure... And many do... but can you make a name for yourself if all you do is go with the NWS? Nope... I never look at zones and discussions til I'm all done with mine, a 3-4 hour process. If the zones are way different I'll go back and look at my data to see what they see. If I can't figure it out, I'll call them up and ask in detail. If I agree I may sway mine, if not I'll stick. Staying with my original forecast has worked out much more often than not.

"They usually spent 1-2 hrs building their show when a NWS forecaster spends hours reading models and writing discussions."

Other than writing a discussion I have all the tools (and the same software) that a NWS guy has. I go to many of the same training sessions that a NWS guy goes to. Again tell me why the NWS forecast _has_ to be better?

"I would put their forecasting skills and guys like some of the SPC guys up against any private met out there."

SPC concentrates on severe weather at the national scale... I work on day-to-day weather at the local level. Two different fields.

Does that mean that if you don't work at SPC you can't be an expert? Chuck Doswell never worked at SPC. Al Moller - nope. Are you telling me that since they didn't work at SPC and one didn't work at NWS they are naturally inferior?

"I think the biggest advantage a forecaster of any sort has is knowing the climatology and quirks of a certain area. I guarantee a forecaster in Atlanta or Chicago will miss the nuances of tx panhandle wx 75% of the time."

Exactly. And if your panhandle skills had to move to Michigan and incorporate the lakes and Canadian cold air I bet you'd have a hard time adjusting for a while... These are things that national NWS offices or private met firms will NEVER be able to overcome, and the reason that local private mets can have a great advantage even over NWS locations 50-100 miles away. I've been here 6 years and always lived within 200 miles either in Indiana or Ohio before moving to Lansing. So I have 15 years of Great Lakes forecast. What's the average NWS guy around for - 4-8 years?

- Rob

 

[Jay McCoy]

i agree with you on a number of those points and I wasnt refering to you personally and I hope you didnt take it that way. I am saying most companies with private mets do so from a national office and dont have local mets all over the country. that is where the local NWS office has the advantage.

As for me forecasting in Michigan. oh hell no I wouldnt even try to figure out lake effect.

Its like the wx channel. They are based in Atlanta and most of their forecasts (at least the ones that are close to right) are ripped from the local NWS offices. When they try and put together their own foecast for us such as their severe wx outlook they are wrong most of the time.

As for the 2 yr degrees I was refering mostly to tv mets. I know the NWS and most private companies require 4 yr bachelors.