9/29/05: NOW: NY/NJ/New England

[HAltschule]

00z Model data reminds me of other events where we have backed into a severe TRW squall line despite minimal instability. A very strong surface front will create plenty of lift on Thursday. 500mb vorticity will also be favorable and winds will be extremely favorable for severe wind gusts. MM5 and ETA suggests a line of heavy showers and isolated storms to race across upstate New York by midday and these may be enough to produce wind gusts of 50-70mph at the surface. I expect there will be SVR Warnings issued tomorrow across this area (and an outside chance of a watch). It's one of those situations where Severe Thunderstorm Warnings may be issued for plain showers with no lightning. That's just the best way to warn for 1 or 2 counties with damaging winds.

And, with 850 winds of 50-70 knots, it won't take much to bring damaging gusts to the ground. In addition, there a very nice wedge of dry air at 700mb and this will enhance the severe potential. So, we shall see what happens, but I do expect a fairly active day tomorrow. And its not out of the question that a full-blown squall line (with bowing segments) organizes either.

 

[Sam Sagnella]

I agree with everything Howie mentioned, though I'm liking his prospects in the Capitol District area far more than my own along the CT shore. The strongest 500mb vorticity colocated with the 850mb wind maximum (>70kts!) across the upstate NY/VT/NH area in a marginally unstable airmass (750-1000 j/kg SBCAPE) should provide us with a fairly typical fall New England damaging wind event, with the majority of the severe reports N of the lwr Hudson Valley. That mid-level dry air should also really help things get cranking, most likely beginning between noon and 2pm ET and pushing east throughout the afternoon.

If we can get an organized squall line to develop, then this has the potential to be a pretty significant event (>50 reports?), hopefully as far south as SW CT.

Having said that, this setup reminds me of an event in NJ a couple years ago where a line of low-topped supercells developed in mid-morning and produced at least two tornadoes. Doubt that will happen again tomorrow, but it should be an interesting day nonetheless.

 

[HAltschule]

It appears that all of the ingredients will be maximized to give us a widespread severe wind damage event today. The synoptic winds right now are gutsing to 40-50mph without any storms nearby. The radar shows a thin, organized line of showers and isolated thunderstorms entering central NY. NWS has severe thunderstorm warnings everywhere out there now as the storms are producing confirmed widespread wind damage. They are moving toward the northeast at 60mph and have gusts in excess of 70mph!!! WOW. BUF just gusted to 65mph.

Watch Box issued at 6:45am and the wind damage shading has been increased to 25%...almost Moderate risk of severe. Thus, I expect this line to continue and strengthen with a derecho-like event today producing tons of tree damage (already occurring) in gusts over 70mph in spots. (Most damage reports in western NY now have trees down countywide and "widespread" tree down in the reports). Should be a fun day.

 

[Dave Kaplow]

Yep, absolutely typical New England fall squall line, although I'm betting we'll be hearing lots of media reports about damage being caused by a "freak storm". I'm actually liking southern CT because we have the highest dewpoints and the sun appears to be making an attempt at burning off some of the clouds here. But you don't chase these kind of lines, they chase you. Don't worry Sam, I suspect this thing will still be packing a strong punch right up to the CT shoreline and beyond.

 

[B Ozanne]

I'm in Darien, CT. The fall is good because Long Island Sound is at its warmest so any storms that form should have no problem pushing over me. I'm at 73/66 at 11am. We are having some clearings, but its been mainly cloudy all morning.

 

[HAltschule]

Convective line moved through Albany at 11:45am. The strongest winds were in the 4 hours preceding this line. Numerous trees and power lines are down areawide. An Old Forge, NY spotter (in the Western Adirondack Mountains) reports "hundreds" of trees down resulting from both non-tstm winds and also tstm winds with the line that went through. Buffalo, NY gusted to 65mph earlier. Albany airport had a peak gust to 45mph so far this morning. These are typical wind speeds area-wide although there were likely gusts up to 60-70 mph in some higher elevations.

Anyway, the line lost some of its punch as it approached the City of Albany. I expect it to maintain itself/strengthen as it moves east into New England becuase it is more unstable out that way. CT, NJ and NYC may get into the action also since the front is still west of there currently. The line may intensify and bring some of the strong winds down to the ground there as well.

 

[Saul Trabal]

Yeah-I had been wondering about this today. What are the chances of isolated tornadic activity?

I was riding my bike from work this morning, and it was rather difficult pedaling in those winds, especially uphill.

 

[B Ozanne]

Just had a gust to 33mph in a light shower in Darien, CT. Don't laugh...My anemometer is about 15 feet off the ground in a heavily wooded area.

 

[Sam Sagnella]

Originally posted by B Ozanne
Just had a gust to 33mph in a light shower in Darien, CT. Don't laugh...My anemometer is about 15 feet off the ground in a heavily wooded area.

Yeah, I had a couple gusts over 30mph here as the pre-line showers came through. A narrow line of convection oriented NNE-SSW has established itself from Berkshire County, MA all the way to nrn NJ and is moving to the east at ~30kts. I expect very strong, possibly severe, winds as this feature pushes its way through my neck of the woods in the next 1.5-2hrs. The problem with this area is that with so many damned trees everywhere, all it takes is a good 40mph gust to knock power out to more than half of town...I guess we'll have to just wait and see what happens.


EDIT: Fairfield County was spared the meteorological excitement that the counties to the N and E were granted. Nothing more than 35mph here, though check out the CT L&P power outages:

 

[HAltschule]

A quick check of the latest conditions show rapid fizzling of the line of thunderstorms. Therefore, it appears that the window of opportunity is closing quickly and that no severe thunderstorms will occur. I do think that synoptic winds will still gust to 40mph or so for the next 1-2 hours before the line of rain showers pushes through, but clearly the best severe weather already occurred in Western and Central NY earlier and is now over.

Saul...NJ looks like they are out of the woods and not going to see any severe weather now. The front has passed and nothing more than a thin line of showers exists over Wetsern Nassau County, Long Island.

EDIT: Many damage reports received on the LSR's.....
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productviewnat...SRALY&version=0

 

[B Ozanne]

We just had a frontal passage in Darien. Biggest gusts were well ahead of the front in some showers. Winds are dying now, but we should see them come back up once the front moves on. Temperature down 8F in the past 30 miuntes.

 

[MClarkson]

tried to go windsurfing south of boston just now. Picked up a 40 knot gust in duxbury bay, and sustained around 35. The winds really ramped up fast ahead of this sharp front.