9/19/07 NOW: KS

[Matthew Crowther]

I was a bit surprised to see that a red box was issued in this area- especially since the MD only mentioned large hail and the
convective outlook had a 2% tornado risk. There are some decent cells there now- and I would not rule out a tornado, as the 0-6KM shear is AOA
40 kts, SB CAPE is approaching 3500 and the 0-1KM SRH is 100-150 m2/s2. I know of one person chasing today- anyone else?

 

[Rich Thompson]

The decision to go with a Tornado Watch was the result of the conference call with the NWS offices. Confidence in multiple storms initiating was increasing, and some of the model soundings (confirmed by observational data) looked pretty interesting along the front this evening in NW KS. Nobody was totally convinced that tornadoes would occur, but the threat was just high enough to justify Tornado over Severe Thunderstorm.

The storms have weakened since 21z, but the storm environment appears to be improving slowly across NW KS. The wildcard will be the NW moving outflow (fine line SE of GLD), if that signifies too much low-level cool air production/stabilization to support new development.

Rich T.