9/15/10 FCST: KS/MO/IA

[Jonathan Whitehead]

I know this is coming out a bit late but monitoring two areas for convective development today...1/ERN KS..2/IA

Large scale height falls as mentioned in the SWODY1 will occur over IA today in advance of an amplifying impulse out of Nebraska that should lead to widespread severe storms later today.

The second area is across KS. Several MCS's across ERN KS should move off to the east this afternoon allowing clouds to thin across the CNTRL/ERN parts of the state allowing instability to build across the region into the 3000-3500 range. This combined with adequate moisture and 40-50kts of bulk shear will make severe storms likely along with the threat of supercells. Isolated tornadoes are also possible due to the strongly backed sfc flow field across the area. Right now the threat is conditional on amount of diurnal heating that can take place but if sufficient breaks in the clouds can occur, explosive development is likely as advertised by several hi-res models.

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

Clouds are thinning out across ERK half of KS but im afraid the atmosphere is too worked over from outflow driven boundaries. Cu field has developed along and south of HWY 50 but its rather flat looking at the moment. While all hi-res models explode convection across the area at peak heating, esp over the Flint Hills, im afraid they're overdoing the atmospheric recovery. Im becomming more and more pessimistic about supercell storms across the region with each passing hour. Wouldnt rule out storms south of HWY 50, specifically along and south of an EMP to KEWK line, as atmosphere has recovered abit in this area with increasing CAPE values.

Will continue to monitor.